AAPL at New All Time High!

[iceman1]

Quote from cactiman:

AAPL consolidating in the 650-675 zone, after a nice 19% rally to New Highs. Looking good.

I love how people analyze charts based upon their underlying biases. How do you know it's not topping out at this level? Often we all see what we want to see in a chart.... yes I do believe there are some reliable patterns, both continuation and reversals. But the AAPL chart is pick-em. APPL is moving on fundamentals. Like all hyperbolic stocks, they will come back to earth. Even AAPL will see a <50-75 point drop one day.

Meanwhile I wish I had held my 590c !!! duh.

Dummy!

 

[baggerlord]

I learn something useful on ET every day. Today is was that "new all time high" is a proper noun. Thank you.

 

[cactiman]

Quote from iceman1:

I love how people analyze charts based upon their underlying biases. How do you know it's not topping out at this level? Often we all see what we want to see in a chart.... yes I do believe there are some reliable patterns, both continuation and reversals. But the AAPL chart is pick-em. APPL is moving on fundamentals. Like all hyperbolic stocks, they will come back to earth. Even AAPL will see a <50-75 point drop one day.

Meanwhile I wish I had held my 590c !!! duh.

Dummy!

You don't see upward movement (rallies) and then sideways movement (consolidations) on that chart?
The pattern seems pretty clear to me.

No one "knows" what AAPL will do next.
I NEVER predict future prices (like a lot of people on ET do), because I think it's impossible.
If you get lucky and call a short term move once in a while you're a Guru? I think not.

I believe certain chart patterns are based on human psychology, which doesn't change, and is exactly why those patterns are reliable enough to place bets on.
"Reliable" doesn't mean 100% for sure. It means the odds favor a past pattern will repeat, or a Trend will continue.

It's too soon to know if 650 will hold as Support, but I will be betting money on AAPL staying above 600, based on that chart.
If this is the Top and it falls from here I'd get out at 599.
That's as much as one can do.
It's all about probabilities, not absolutes.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from iceman1:

I love how people analyze charts based upon their underlying biases. How do you know it's not topping out at this level? Often we all see what we want to see in a chart.... yes I do believe there are some reliable patterns, both continuation and reversals. But the AAPL chart is pick-em. APPL is moving on fundamentals. Like all hyperbolic stocks, they will come back to earth. Even AAPL will see a <50-75 point drop one day.

Meanwhile I wish I had held my 590c !!! duh.

Dummy!

Love aapl options..... I'm with you with what your saying. But parabolic stocks are great for options trades

 

[cactiman]

Quote from cdcaveman:

Love aapl options..... I'm with you with what your saying. But parabolic stocks are great for options trades

Single Calls are too EXPENSIVE for me!
But Bull Put Spreads are reasonable enough....

 

[ksmetana]

At a P/E of like 15 this stock is still pretty cheap, considering how baller the company is. I would say it tops out at around 900, maybe a 1000 on a blow off top.

 

[Ash1972]

Remember when Microsoft became the most valuable company in history back in 1999? What happened shortly after 1999?

Apple has no monopoly position to speak of - it's the just trendiest handset designer du jour. That could change in a flash.

Let's step away from our technicals momentarily and ask ourselves: what's really going on here? What market emotions are prevailing? The ones that usually accompany a major top?

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from Ash1972:

Remember when Microsoft became the most valuable company in history back in 1999? What happened shortly after 1999?

Apple has no monopoly position to speak of - it's the just trendiest handset designer du jour. That could change in a flash.

Let's step away from our technicals momentarily and ask ourselves: what's really going on here? What market emotions are prevailing? The ones that usually accompany a major top?

so you missed a great run and this is how you justify missing it?

 

[S2007S]

Quote from Ash1972:

Remember when Microsoft became the most valuable company in history back in 1999? What happened shortly after 1999?

Apple has no monopoly position to speak of - it's the just trendiest handset designer du jour. That could change in a flash.

Let's step away from our technicals momentarily and ask ourselves: what's really going on here? What market emotions are prevailing? The ones that usually accompany a major top?

Every company that surges like apple stays on top for a few short moments, after that they fade away, apple cannot stay on top forever, I remember back in the late 90's they thought CSCO would be the first company to ever have a trillion dollar market cap, fast forward a decade + later and it never happened, same thing with microsoft, just because a company is showing great and incredible growth now doesnt mean its going to last forever, apple will reach a top just like every company that has shown itself in the spotlight in the past. I hope people dont believe apple has a monopoly because they are far from that...there are so many smartphones and tablets to chose from today that apple will feel the most incredible competition more so than ever before.

 

[Ash1972]

Quote from FreakofNature:

so you missed a great run and this is how you justify missing it?

Anyone who avoids bubbles will by definition miss out on great runs. How much did you make at the end of 2008? Or 2000-2002?

The smart money is thinking that both FB and AAPL were (note use of the past tense) the poster boys of the dead cat bounce that started in March 2009. The naive are now confusing a very drawn out bear rally with a bull market.