Hello All,
I've done a lot of analysis on AAPL, and I'd like to run it past you to see what you think. Thanks in advance, love you all! ~Keith :^)
Summa Summarum:
- I'm short on AAPL, and expect a 10% correction soon.
- Target price $180.
- Analyst rating: SELL
ANALYSIS
1.
Service Company. Alarming to me is that AAPL is expanding sideways into other markets. I read this as a tip-off that device growth and innovation has stagnated. They haven't released a new "Apple Teleporter" or some new innovation; they're entering other markets to prop up their growth.
2.
Recent (March 25th) announcements. Honestly, this stuff has all been done:
a. Apple TV - Fierce competition, been tried. Meh
b. Apple Arcade - Gaming is great, and money is there, but it's ultimately a vidiot market. Will it include Fortnite? Doubtful. Maybe they'll buy it :^)
c. Apple News - Again, fierce competition, and they have to pay a big chunk of change to the content providers.
d. Apple Magazine - Meh.
e. Apple Card. Bad move, Tim. This is a great way to piss off the financials, and has the potential to cause real problems. I used to work for AT&T; "Ma Bell." They started to expand into other markets. introduced the AT&T Universal Card. When companies don't "Stick to their Knitting" and challenge the financials, it causes problems. They were eventually busted up.
3.
Disney's recent announcement to offer a streaming service dropped NFLX about 5%. AAPL's announcement didn't move the needle; it had little, if any, effect. It's basically a non-factor (perhaps non-starter?!)
4.
Another GE? Is AAPL now following in the footsteps of GE, where they're starting to sprawl? This is not the AAPL of 2000; they're facing a typical economic cycle now. It happened to US Steel; it's happening to GE... it can happen to AAPL.
5.
Tim Cook is an Operations guy. Granted, Jobs is a tough act to follow, but Cook has remarkably little innovation. He spent the first 12 years of his career with IBM. He's not really a visionary; just a typical "Big Blue" kind of thinker. 10 years after Jobs' passing, we're seeing Cook's AAPL... and it hasn't changed much.
6.
CHINA. Huawei copied the iPhone design and is selling it. The Chinese Guv'ment is "encouraging" people to buy one of over 100 Chinese-made phones (read: buy an iPhone? You will be executed and your organs harvested and sold).
7.
AAPL to Buy Something? There's a real risk that AAPL is about to drop a boatload of ca$h, and buy somebody. This will dramatically affect their valuation.
8.
iPhone stagnation. iPhone is about 2/3rds of AAPL revenue, and their sales are stagnating:
RISKS
1.
It's the economy, stupid! The greatest risk I now see is that AAPL is in the DOW, and Trump
loves his Dow. It's possible that he will prop it up to keep the "economy" good to improve his re-election prospects.
2.
The Dovish Fed. Seems like the Fed is backing off on raising rates. This could trigger a ca$h flow back to equities. On that note, it's a bit depressing that they might have to lower rates; it sends a message that the economy really isn't that great. There's no inflation because peeps aren't spending.
It's also alarming how the 10T is hanging around 2.6%... even with dovish statements. Eek! Shows how investors are holding to the bond market and skittish about going into equities.
