AAPL - Analysis - 16 Apr 2019 - SHORT

[smallfil]

you are looking for free lunch... it doesn't exist.

whenever you get any idea... any idea at all... ask this question first - 'perhaps other people already thought about it'?

if the answer is yes, stop right there and move on.

there is no free money in the market.

the only money is YOU - are you capable of reading other peoples cards than they yours... that's it.

basically 99% of all ET posts are worthless... because all is about 'where is the free lunch'.

the big dinner feast is right in front of you... the pro boys did what they did, if you can read cards, you will see the big turkey dinner right in front of you waiting for you to stick a fork in it.

Yeah, everyone wants something for nothing! There are no free gifts. "Beware of Greeks bearing gifts." Is the maxim the Trojans learned when they brought the Trojan Horse in.
And you cannot fight the big investors and hedge funds because they would just run you over and not miss a beat! Retail traders if they would just open their eyes would realize that there are opportunities in the stockmarket daily. All you need to do is go and grab it!

 

[kmiklas]

@kmiklas ,

how much true, is number 6 ?
( the last sentence )

Is it a joke, or some , secret public gossip.
( imagination drifting away from techs and funds... )

I saw it on Bloomberg. That was when AAPL had that massive plunge towards the end of last year.

The Chinese government is "suggesting" that their population "buy local." The message is, "There's about 100 smartphone manufacturers in China... buy one of them."

 

[kmiklas]

The trend on AAPL is up. That is all I need to know. Also, borrowing shares to short any stock is very risky. The risk to the upside is theoretically, unlimited. I use only put options when I short any stock. My risk limited to the cost of the premium. True, there is the expiration date but, that is part of the risk you take when you buy an option.

Agreed, shorting can be risky; I acknowledge your point, but the specific instrument matters.

If AAPL shoots ups 20% it's a massive move, in the tens of billions. Plunging AAPL is not like some Pharma startup that's going from $5 to $75 overnight because the FDA approved their new cancer drug.

I'm not saying that you can't get hurt, but I think that the risk of getting caught in a short squeeze with AAPL is pretty low.

 

[kmiklas]

So what do people think about below approach ... Short APPL, but long equivalent SPY? It's unlikely for APPL to significantly outperform the market on the way up, yet it's very possible to significantly underperform the market on the way down. Being short Wall Street darling outright is too risky of a trade to me. Having an opinion/research/idea is not as important as having the correct implementation of it, imho.

Interesting! I hate to say it, but I like it: hedge the short position on AAPL with a long on SPY!

you are looking for free lunch... it doesn't exist. whenever you get any idea... any idea at all... ask this question first - 'perhaps other people already thought about it'? if the answer is yes, stop right there and move on. there is no free money in the market. the only money is YOU - are you capable of reading other peoples cards than they yours... that's it. basically 99% of all ET posts are worthless... because all is about 'where is the free lunch'. the big dinner feast is right in front of you... the pro boys did what they did, if you can read cards, you will see the big turkey dinner right in front of you waiting for you to stick a fork in it.

He's not looking for a free lunch, he's making a smart play. The risk is if AAPL outperforms the SPY.

 

[destriero]

Too much drift in short AAPL/long SPY. AAPL is a Dow component as well. The largest Dow component.

 

[maxinger]

Technically speaking, AAPL is still in rising trend line.

all the best mister.

 

[destriero]

Technically speaking, AAPL is still in rising trend line.

all the best mister.

So was the SPX and AAPL in September:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-spx-has-hit-a-cyclical-top.325108/

 

[maxinger]

So was the SPX and AAPL in September:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-spx-has-hit-a-cyclical-top.325108/

yes. In Sept 2018, AAPL was still in rising trend line.
2 months later, it broke the trend line and price went down to 140 level.

 

[destriero]

yes. In Sept 2018, AAPL was still in rising trend line.
2 months later, it broke the trend line and price went down to 140 level.

I began shorting S&P and SNs in mid September. AAPL was 218 at the time. I recall your bullish comments on my thread at SPX 2900. How'd that work for you?

 

[qlai]

AAPL is a Dow component as well. The largest Dow component.

But I don't think we want that much correlation. The idea is that individual stock has more news risk than a broad index. Assumption is that the good news gets priced in, but the bad news mostly comes as a surprise(I guess same reason puts often priced higher than calls). But this requires so much money that I don't think it's worth the pay off.