Listen, you may be the best "pro boys" reader in the world, but you sound like one of those CNBC guests ... Vague and way too forward looking to be accountable. What's your play - 100% long until we reach SPX 5000 no matter what happens in between? Eventually, you will be proven correct, so I can't argue with that!
the play is correct.
but I am talking about reasonable certainly of uptrend with only mild corrections say 5% in the foreseeable future because the dumb money is too short right now..
vague - depends on how you look at it.. the statement above is not vague.
also - accepting vagueness is 1 big step in personal development... beginners love TA because there is no vagueness... blue line crossing over the red line, you buy... brilliant.. problems it never makes money.
in poker play you rarely see certainty, it's all about probability, bet value etc.. always vague.
but, after you do it the right way long enough, the vagueness becomes less... your reading ability develops from seeing 65% certainly (which is still pretty darn good), to maybe 85% certainly, (which is what I feel right now).,
I am not talking about SP 5000 in year infinity... I am talking about all the sideline money out there is looking for yield desperately and cannot find any, and people will realize, one after another, that stocks are way undervalued and is the only asset class worth buying... one after another they will fire their financial advisor who told them 'bonds are safe'..
analytically sp should at 5000 right now, but you don't see the pro boys advertising it... that is good news! it has 85% probability to be true!
in trading you need to discard the need for certainty, the need for confirmation... you need to rely on your own independent thinking.
if you google 'SP should be at 5000' and get a bunch of confirmations, that is bad news! that means the pro boys have started a campaign to distribute their inventory.
so trading is about:
- reading the market, independently;
- accept vagueness, accept risk, and collect the risk premium
read Justin Mamis book The Nature of Risk.