AAPL - A bloodbath in the making

I too am a bit concerned about AAPL's chart; it is strong but not as strong as it was last Fall into early February. But the fundamental story is so powerful. Aside from iPod and iPod Shuffle blowout sales reports, consider the following:

Amazon: Best-selling desktop is Mac Mini
Amazon: 4 of the top 5 best-selling desktops are Macs
Amazon: Best-selling laptop is Mac iBook
Amazon: 2 of the top 5 best-selling laptops are Macs

PC Connection: 5 of the top 10 best-selling desktops are Macs
PC Connection: 2 of the top 3 best-selling laptops are Macs;
6 of the top 19 best-selling laptops are Macs

February's PC Connection catalog features Mac mini on front cover and 8 of the first 10 pages of the catalog are devoted to Macs and iPods.

It is notable that PC Connection is a Wintel-oriented retailer.
 
Quote from Frankc23:

I too am a bit concerned about AAPL's chart; it is strong but not as strong as it was last Fall into early February. But the fundamental story is so powerful. Aside from iPod and iPod Shuffle blowout sales reports, consider the following:

Amazon: Best-selling desktop is Mac Mini
Amazon: 4 of the top 5 best-selling desktops are Macs
Amazon: Best-selling laptop is Mac iBook
Amazon: 2 of the top 5 best-selling laptops are Macs

PC Connection: 5 of the top 10 best-selling desktops are Macs
PC Connection: 2 of the top 3 best-selling laptops are Macs;
6 of the top 19 best-selling laptops are Macs

February's PC Connection catalog features Mac mini on front cover and 8 of the first 10 pages of the catalog are devoted to Macs and iPods.

It is notable that PC Connection is a Wintel-oriented retailer.
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So can it be any better then this?
Time to sell :D
 
<<So can it be any better then this?>>

I hear you. However I have not seen ANY of what I posted here covered in the business press.
 
Quote from Chagi:

I hope for his (your?) sake that a bit of correlation analysis was done, else this might be a really nice way to incur heavy trading losses. AAPL is currently undergoing a bit of a correction, and I agree that right now may not be an optimal time to take a long position, however I would be careful about shorting it.

Conversely, I haven't looked at Sony's financial statements (or chart), so I can't comment in detail on fundamental reasons that I would see it as a short or long opportunity, but I will say that my current impression of Sony is that they are in a state of decline. They have a number of divisions that are working against each other instead of co-operating (portable music players vs. music label division for example), and the forthcoming PS3 is going to face extremely heavy competition from Microsoft's new XBox (whereas PS2 had far more breathing room at the time of its launch).

Anyways, to cut things short, I have some doubts about playing these two stocks against each other as a pair trade, I personally think that AAPL is more likely to rise and Sony is more likely to drop.
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You're comparing apples to oranges. The two companies are not even in the same sector, let alone industry. Also, I would get some numbers regarding PS2 vs Xbox, it's nowhere near heavy competition. Microsoft's Xbox projects are still in the red and will be for a little longer, at least the last time I checked up this info (it was a while ago so I could be wrong).

AAPL is overextended but a good long term investment. Rip off at these prices though. SNE looks like it can see $100 again, it's a good bet, I just wish the dividend was better.
 
Quote from oktiri:

have you ever heard about sthg called fundamentals.
I won't be surprised if the share price heads higher

on fundamentals aapl is severly overpriced, quick EVA comes out to mid 20s with medium growth assumption. once sony and others start cashing in on ipods and hype is over aapl is done, its going to drop like a rock.
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Exactly. Recent tech trends indicate the following:
nothing innovative lasts very long...knock-offs and look-alikes appear almost instantly.
This is very much UNLIKE the late 1990's.
Again, with a volatile pup like AAPL, watch the price action, and act accordingly...with incredible discipline.
We could see one last "heave-ho" upwards, and then the spiral towards reality downward.
 
Quote from Hydroblunt:

You're comparing apples to oranges. The two companies are not even in the same sector, let alone industry. Also, I would get some numbers regarding PS2 vs Xbox, it's nowhere near heavy competition. Microsoft's Xbox projects are still in the red and will be for a little longer, at least the last time I checked up this info (it was a while ago so I could be wrong).

AAPL is overextended but a good long term investment. Rip off at these prices though. SNE looks like it can see $100 again, it's a good bet, I just wish the dividend was better.
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Well, to be specific, the comparison of the two companies was actually originated by a previous poster that was talking about trading the two of them as a pair.

As for the Xbox, cumulatively you are correct with regards to profitability, Microsoft is still well in the red, however the Xbox division was profitable for the first time last quarter. You are also correct that the PS2 likely is still very, very far ahead of the Xbox in terms of cumulative installed units, however it appears that the XBox 2 (360, whatever) and the PS3 will be launching much closer to each other, so this round of the war will be much, much more interesting than the previous round (which Sony arguably won).

It is also worth noting that Sony just had a very significant judgement against it vs. Immersion regarding the force feedback tech in the PS2 controllers, Microsoft already settled with Immersion, it'll be interesting to see how this pans out.
 
Quote from Chagi:

Well, to be specific, the comparison of the two companies was actually originated by a previous poster that was talking about trading the two of them as a pair.

As for the Xbox, cumulatively you are correct with regards to profitability, Microsoft is still well in the red, however the Xbox division was profitable for the first time last quarter. You are also correct that the PS2 likely is still very, very far ahead of the Xbox in terms of cumulative installed units, however it appears that the XBox 2 (360, whatever) and the PS3 will be launching much closer to each other, so this round of the war will be much, much more interesting than the previous round (which Sony arguably won).

It is also worth noting that Sony just had a very significant judgement against it vs. Immersion regarding the force feedback tech in the PS2 controllers, Microsoft already settled with Immersion, it'll be interesting to see how this pans out.
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I think this time around MSFT is going to get the Xbox2 to market quite a bit in advance of the PS3. Will be interesting to see if they can get more market share.
 
Next week is gonna be pretty interesting: we've got a close below the SMA50 for the first time in more than 6 months!
I wonder how many institutional stock screeners are going to show that fact simultaneously on sunday night/ monday morning :D
 

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