AAPL - A bloodbath in the making

Quote from stashu:

... I also understand that they have absolutely ZERO debt, and money in the bank, with interest rates rising. Does anyone know if this is true?...
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Correct, Apple has billions in cash and no debt.
 
Give it a quarter or two, this is really starting to look familiar. Check out the insider sales:

Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months

Purchases N/A
Sales 4,336,000
Net Shares Purchased (Sold) (4,336,000)
Total Insider Shares Held 6.29M
% Net Shares Purchased (Sold) (40.8%)

Short interest is only under 4%, wait til it's over 15%, thats when the pro's are on it and your pretty much garaunteed for a nice waterfall. The insiders are bailing now before things get bad. Everyone knows this company is not geared for shareholders.

Does anyone know where to get old insider trader records, I want to see what it looked like for AAPL before they plunged back in 2000. Deja vu all over again.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

Give it a quarter or two, this is really starting to look familiar. Check out the insider sales:

Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months

Purchases N/A
Sales 4,336,000
Net Shares Purchased (Sold) (4,336,000)
Total Insider Shares Held 6.29M
% Net Shares Purchased (Sold) (40.8%)

Short interest is only under 4%, wait til it's over 15%, thats when the pro's are on it and your pretty much garaunteed for a nice waterfall. The insiders are bailing now before things get bad. Everyone knows this company is not geared for shareholders.

Does anyone know where to get old insider trader records, I want to see what it looked like for AAPL before they plunged back in 2000. Deja vu all over again.
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You should know that you can't go by insider selling. People sell for all kinds of reasons. Their stock was supressed for several years. I'm sure there were lots of employees with options that had been worthless for a while (option strike price higher than the current price) and just figured they'd take the chance while they had it and not risk losing the chance (the ol' "nobody ever went broke taking profits" thing). I know I never held onto my options for long at my last employer. As soon as I could exerecise them and I felt the stock price was at a fair value, I sold them. It didn't mean I didn't think the stock was going to be worth more some day (and it certainly continued going up for quite some time), but I just had other things I wanted to do with the money at the time. Payed off a bunch of debt accrued during college, put a down payment on a house, bought an engagement ring and paid for a honeymoon. People do stuff like that in the real world. :)
 
Quote from youngbuck:

My co-blogger posted a nice bit about AAPL two days ago.

http://www.thetraderlog.com/index.p...e_i_just_thought_of_this&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

Basically he says long SNE, short AAPL , but check out the link for the reasoning behind it.
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I hope for his (your?) sake that a bit of correlation analysis was done, else this might be a really nice way to incur heavy trading losses. AAPL is currently undergoing a bit of a correction, and I agree that right now may not be an optimal time to take a long position, however I would be careful about shorting it.

Conversely, I haven't looked at Sony's financial statements (or chart), so I can't comment in detail on fundamental reasons that I would see it as a short or long opportunity, but I will say that my current impression of Sony is that they are in a state of decline. They have a number of divisions that are working against each other instead of co-operating (portable music players vs. music label division for example), and the forthcoming PS3 is going to face extremely heavy competition from Microsoft's new XBox (whereas PS2 had far more breathing room at the time of its launch).

Anyways, to cut things short, I have some doubts about playing these two stocks against each other as a pair trade, I personally think that AAPL is more likely to rise and Sony is more likely to drop.
 
Hey,

I made that post. Normall I do pairs with system trading so I do correlation, but for the way I am playing these two stocks I dont think thats relevant.

I think in the next month once psp comes out everyone will be yelling about how this is the next ipod, its already selling out in japan and going on ebay for more than $500 in europe.
The point being people who missed the aapl bandwagon will jump on sne hoping for the same results.

As you can tell from the blog I didnt short aapl yet. I think its a bloodbath in the making, but as of now its still in bubble mode. Im watching it closely but not shorting it just yet.
 
Quote from foe:

I think its a bloodbath in the making, but as of now its still in bubble mode. Im watching it closely but not shorting it just yet.
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Well said!

This is my stance as well: I expect a major decline in AAPL, I do not predict it.
 
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