AAPL - A bloodbath in the making

Quote from OldTrader:

Perhaps I was a little hard on him. Evidently you think so and I will defer to that.

But do stocks like AAPL "inevitably" take a "nasty fall"? You have to hate comments like this don't you? What does "inevitable" mean? I've heard comments like that about every big stock market winner since I've been in the business. Usually when you start hearing that the stock has considerably farther to go. I've been hearing that on EBAY for instance for years...and we did get a "nasty fall" here recently. But after how many years?

I think what articles like this do is encourage shortsellers, and discourage potential buyers...although that doesn't appear to be Swenlin's motive. After reading Swenlins article you'd have to admit that buying Apple would be the last thing you would do...so that you would not get caught up in a "nasty fall".

For that matter, what does "nasty fall" mean? For instance, would a drop to 65-70 be a "nasty fall"?

I'd love to give you a list of stocks that are subject to that "inevitable nasty fall".

I'm no fan of Swenlins either, in case you can't tell. I'm still waiting for 400 on the Dow that he was predicting based on the monthly Dow charts a few years ago. I think his analysis is quite unimpressive.

Regardless, I don't think anything about stocks is "inevitable". If that were true then Swenlin would have all the money. It could be that Apple's earnings are going to accelerate. Or, it could be that the stock undergoes some consolidation up here, no real drop, then eventually moves even higher. Stocks that are parabolic are generally parabolic for a reason....they aren't always "overvalued", whatever that means.

In any case, I'll get off my soapbox now....it's all just my opinion.

OldTrader
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I am not trying to defend Swenlin. Really i don't know much of anything about him. And I agree with you that just because a stock is strong is no reason to short it. In fact, I would say going up with strong momentum is the most bullish thing a stock can do.

There is an interesting issue of whether or not a stock making a parabolic move is a high risk long (or short). Actually I would say it is definitely a high risk short, long I'm not so sure about. I wish one of the backtesting jocks here would look into this question.
 
Toshiba unable to keep up with demand of iPod Shuffle...

"When it comes to the supply-demand balance we are currently unable to satisfy all customer demands," Muromachi said, noting in particular the launch of iPod Shuffle by Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) in January.

"Demand created by this new machine is so vast that our current capacity can in no way meet their needs," he said."

Full Story:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuo...=mtfh03888_2005-02-21_10-00-18_t221542_newsml
 
Quote from Mike805:

"We must distinguish between a companies business and the price people pay for it's stocks at the exchange. These are two different issues."
- Edwards & Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends


Words to trade by IMO.

AAPL hit 90, managed to stay above for a very short time. Came back under and ended the week at high 86's.

Is this weakness?

If we had a clear path to 100 it should have stayed above 90.

I do not hold a long term position in this stock but I trade it everyday. I wouldn't place my stake in any long term bias at this time. Maybe if we break 90 with good volume I would be inclined to see it go to 100.

Mike
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I reckon if the market moves up, this one goes to 120. Minimum.
 
Apple has been executing very, very well strategically over the past couple of years, and in my opinion has accomplished many key points that will ensure continued success in future years. Here are a few things that I consider important:

- Apple Retail Stores - can't emphasize the importance of this enough. Traditional retail stores (Compusmart, Futureshop, etc.) tend to do very little to promote Macs, and Apple was 100% bang on correct to invest in opening their own string of retail shops in order to best promote the Mac "experience" to consumers. Also worth noting that these stores help to emphasize the "cool factor" of Apple in terms of their design and merchandising.

- iPod - I don't think that I really need to elaborate on this point. Apple is now going after the Flash segment of the market, I'm sure that there will be more pretty pie charts to follow.

iPodMarketShare.jpg


- Apple has finally introduced a truly affordable consumer model, the Mac mini. It's not worthwhile discussing tech specs, but the point is that the price point for entry into the Mac side of the pond just got far, far lower. Even better, I guarantee that Apple will still maintain pretty high percentage margins on the new Minis.

I suspect that Apple will finally begin to make inroads in terms of marketshare, and potential is limitless, Apple could double in value from only a few percentage points of total PC marketshare growth. The above positive notes given, the one problem that I consistently see with Apple in recent years is their inability to meet demand (supply chain issues) as well as their difficulty in actually forecasting said demand. Part of me suspects that this may be somewhat deliberate though, when was the last time that Dell or HP or IBM was sold out of one of their new hot models?

So, all of the above being said, I'm potentially interested in investing in Apple, however I will wait to see how the trading ranges play out after the stock split.
 
Wow, the entire backwards rationalizing taking place here is simply amazing!

It's remarkably similar to the bubble 5 years ago, when people searched for reasons to justify a high and higher stock price after the increase already took place.

Guys, this POS stock is simply out of control. I'm not talking about the company. For those here that have an understanding of game theory, let me mention the term "bandwagon effect", aka momentum to traders.

Buying forces have gained so much power in this POS stock that normal price finding behavior isn't taking place any longer, just like during the end of the 90's, when countless traders & hedge funds assesed the bubble-condition right but acted too early and therefore burnt their fingers by shorting too early e.g. in '98. Constant short squeezes paired with greedyness.

The final spike of this stock is gonna be amazing.

Swenlin is right, the market for this stock is clearly dominated by madness, but it's hard to tell when it's gonna show signs of weakness. But I'm sure: once it does show weakness, a couple of dozens of hedge fund traders are enough to crush this POS and transform the speculative AAPL trading positions of countless people into "strategic investments".

:D
 
Quote from Riskmanager:

Wow, the entire backwards rationalizing taking place here is simply amazing!

It's remarkably similar to the bubble 5 years ago, when people searched for reasons to justify a high and higher stock price after the increase already took place.

Guys, this POS stock is simply out of control. I'm not talking about the company. For those here that have an understanding of game theory, let me mention the term "bandwagon effect", aka momentum to traders.

Buying forces have gained so much power in this POS stock that normal price finding behavior isn't taking place any longer, just like during the end of the 90's, when countless traders & hedge funds assesed the bubble-condition right but acted too early and therefore burnt their fingers by shorting too early e.g. in '98. Constant short squeezes paired with greedyness.

The final spike of this stock is gonna be amazing.

Swenlin is right, the market for this stock is clearly dominated by madness, but it's hard to tell when it's gonna show signs of weakness. But I'm sure: once it does show weakness, a couple of dozens of hedge fund traders are enough to crush this POS and transform the speculative AAPL trading positions of countless people into "strategic investments".

:D
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Are you trying to convince us, or yourself?

:eek:
 
Quote from Riskmanager:

Wow, the entire backwards rationalizing taking place here is simply amazing!

It's remarkably similar to the bubble 5 years ago, when people searched for reasons to justify a high and higher stock price after the increase already took place.

Guys, this POS stock is simply out of control. I'm not talking about the company. For those here that have an understanding of game theory, let me mention the term "bandwagon effect", aka momentum to traders.

Buying forces have gained so much power in this POS stock that normal price finding behavior isn't taking place any longer, just like during the end of the 90's, when countless traders & hedge funds assesed the bubble-condition right but acted too early and therefore burnt their fingers by shorting too early e.g. in '98. Constant short squeezes paired with greedyness.

The final spike of this stock is gonna be amazing.

Swenlin is right, the market for this stock is clearly dominated by madness, but it's hard to tell when it's gonna show signs of weakness. But I'm sure: once it does show weakness, a couple of dozens of hedge fund traders are enough to crush this POS and transform the speculative AAPL trading positions of countless people into "strategic investments".

:D
More...

Someone posted on another thread whether anyone would take out a mortgage and trade it in the market. Combine that with this thread and holy time travel, I could swear this was the bubble all over again.

I don't own any of this nor am I short it but face reality, its going to crash. Your risk tolerance will dictate whether you go with it or not. I would like to thank everyone for trying to justify the price, it brings back good memories of old.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

Someone posted on another thread whether anyone would take out a mortgage and trade it in the market. Combine that with this thread and holy time travel, I could swear this was the bubble all over again.

I don't own any of this nor am I short it but face reality, its going to crash. Your risk tolerance will dictate whether you go with it or not. I would like to thank everyone for trying to justify the price, it brings back good memories of old.
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Muahahahah, I can still remember how I thought "what an incredible moron" when I read about an interview with former US finance minister Robert Rubin in London, where he stated that the markets were tremendously overvalued and a major bear market was about to start off. That was in January 2000.

Or how an austrian hedge fund manager wrote me in an email reply that it's a bubble and that people every time think that 'this time it's different'. That was in August 2000, and when I read it, I just thought, yeah, you're right, but this time it is different.

The wolves are waiting on the side lines.
 
"POS" stock is one thing. Whether it makes sense as a short, right now, is quite another. Rubin called a bubble in Jan '00? Fine, but there was still huge money to be made on the long side after Jan '00.
 
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