AAAintheBeltway honorary 2010 NFL thread.

[AAAintheBeltway]

Thanks for the kind words. I don't think I will have the time this season to do a respectable job of handicapping. I will be following this thread however.

Lines for Week One.




NFL Lines For Week 1 - NFL Football Line Week One
NFL Line 9/9 - 9/13, 2010
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
9/9 8:30 ET At New Orleans -5 Minnesota 48
9/12 1:00 ET At NY Giants -7 Carolina 41
9/12 1:00 ET Miami -3 At Buffalo 38.5
9/12 1:00 ET Atlanta -2.5 At Pittsburgh 37.5
9/12 1:00 ET At Chicago -6.5 Detroit 43
9/12 1:00 ET At New England -4.5 Cincinnati 45
9/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Cleveland 37
9/12 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -2.5 Denver 39.5
9/12 1:00 ET Indianapolis -2 At Houston 47
9/12 1:00 ET At Tennessee -6 Oakland 40.5
9/12 4:15 ET Green Bay -3 At Philadelphia 47.5
9/12 4:15 ET San Francisco -3 At Seattle 36.5
9/12 4:15 ET Arizona -4 At St. Louis 39
9/12 8:20 ET Dallas -3.5 At Washington 40



Monday Night Football Line

9/13 7:00 ET At NY Jets -2.5 Baltimore 35.5
9/13 10:15 ET San Diego -4.5 At Kansas City 45

 

[Hello]

Quote from Rehoboth:

Cool, thanks.

How many picks do you want from the betting public per week. I cant whip out as many as you did.

First off let me apologise if i got testy with you, i just want this thread to be civil so im sorry i started it out wrong.

bet however many you want, i know i have the tendency to over bet, and call way too many games, thats why i track what i have as locks, to see if i am really screwing myself by betting on way to many. The whole point of betting the spread is only betting on games you think you have an edge but i over do it, i know it is my tendency. My bookie makes me bet a minimum of three games per week, with either an equally alotted amount of money, on each or else i got to win all three games then i get something around an 8-1 payout on the three, with it being a little shorter cause of the vig. He does this to avoid people who absolutely load up on one game, So i will be betting minimum three.

Just give a little commentary if you dont mind with each pick. The whole purpose of this is to have fun, and see everyones thought process with their picks. Cheers, and good luck in 2010 betting!

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

You try to get out and they suck you back in. LOL.

Looking over the line, nothing jumps out at me in terms of betting.

You have to wonder about the Steelers giving 2.5 at home, even without Big Ben.

Are the Vikes as good now as the team that lost to NO in the NFC Championship game? I don't think so.

I like SF over Seattle, but Seattle is the toughest place to play in the league, I'm not crazy about the Niner's QB situation and they won't have film on Carroll.

I like Arizona at St. L, but I got burned by taking road favorites last year, so that is a no go for me.

I think the Jets are largely hype and that they will be lucky to beat the Ravens, forget point spread. Ravens have had a lot of moving parts though, including just adding Housh.

I like SD at KC, with or without Vincent Jackson. This could look like a real gift Tuesday morning, but again, do you want to start the season going with a road favorite? I don't.

 

[Hello]

They are doing double headers on monday night this season? or is it just for the first week? I am seriously eyeballing that Sandiego -4.5 game and i might call my bookie to try to add it, but from what i have heard the numbers on 2 of my games are way off so maybe it is better to let it go.

I think when i looked at his numbers it was something around sandiego -7

I would readily bet on sandiego -4.5 over K.C. the only thing to be careful about is how late the game is and it being a monday nighter for the opening game, both teams will come out jacked up for the start of the season. But im thinking that could be a lock as well, i might try to find someone else i can lay money with on that game.

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Thanks for the kind words. I don't think I will have the time this season to do a respectable job of handicapping. I will be following this thread however.

Lines for Week One.




NFL Lines For Week 1 - NFL Football Line Week One
NFL Line 9/9 - 9/13, 2010
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
9/9 8:30 ET At New Orleans -5 Minnesota 48
9/12 1:00 ET At NY Giants -7 Carolina 41
9/12 1:00 ET Miami -3 At Buffalo 38.5
9/12 1:00 ET Atlanta -2.5 At Pittsburgh 37.5
9/12 1:00 ET At Chicago -6.5 Detroit 43
9/12 1:00 ET At New England -4.5 Cincinnati 45
9/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Cleveland 37
9/12 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -2.5 Denver 39.5
9/12 1:00 ET Indianapolis -2 At Houston 47
9/12 1:00 ET At Tennessee -6 Oakland 40.5
9/12 4:15 ET Green Bay -3 At Philadelphia 47.5
9/12 4:15 ET San Francisco -3 At Seattle 36.5
9/12 4:15 ET Arizona -4 At St. Louis 39
9/12 8:20 ET Dallas -3.5 At Washington 40



Monday Night Football Line

9/13 7:00 ET At NY Jets -2.5 Baltimore 35.5
9/13 10:15 ET San Diego -4.5 At Kansas City 45

 

[Hello]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

You try to get out and they suck you back in. LOL.

Looking over the line, nothing jumps out at me in terms of betting.

You have to wonder about the Steelers giving 2.5 at home, even without Big Ben.

The line on that Steelers game came to me at pittsburg -1 with my bookie at 4 in the morning on saturday night, we were both drinking, so maybe he messed it all up, lol i was thinking about betting against them then, and i am a die hard steeler fan, now it has shifted all the way to Atlanta -2.5, the spreads have changed drastically from what i got. I think i may have taken advantage of a drunk bookie.....

Dixon aint great, the only hope the steelers have this season is if they can pull off a 2-2 start, and grind out 2 14-13 type games, and get rapelesberger back in the lineup.

One of my cardinal rules is not betting for my own team, though i readily bet against them when i think the money is there, last year i remember calling a lock on the ravens against the steelers, and i won big, i just try not to allow my desire to cloud my logic.....

 

[Hello]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

You try to get out and they suck you back in. LOL.

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[Hello]

for the sanctity of the thread i updated my picks to Rehoboths spreads.

Here are my picks:

browns +2
jags-2
GB-3?
SF -3
Ravens+3
SD-4.5

I added Sandiego -4.5, though i dont have money on it, i will add it to my tally for my win loss record for the spread betting this season, in terms of the thread, because i fully expect SD to steamroll KC, not enough has changed in KC to take them up from their spot in the NFL as the leagues official pin cushion.

 

[Rehoboth]

I only have one game thus far:

Carolina at NY Giants
Line NYG -7

Pick Carolina

Comment: After Carolina made the switch to Moore last year they went 4-1. Also without the turnovers the defense got solid, only giving up more then 10 points once. We are more likely to see a Carolina team from 2008 rather then the first 2/3rds of 2009. -7 is way to large for this game. Also with a money line of +260, it might be a shot worth taking for the SU win.

 

[Hello]

I was debating picking up this game for myself earlier, good pick, your on the same side as me, i usually start off with all my picks then short list it, and this one was on my original list, i cant see the giants beating Carolina for more then 7 in the season opener. This was the widest spread of all the games for the season opener, and i just dont see it as being a total Giant blowout.

Quote from Rehoboth:

I only have one game thus far:

Carolina at NY Giants
Line NYG -7

Pick Carolina

Comment: After Carolina made the switch to Moore last year they went 4-1. Also without the turnovers the defense got solid, only giving up more then 10 points once. We are more likely to see a Carolina team from 2008 rather then the first 2/3rds of 2009. -7 is way to large for this game. Also with a money line of +260, it might be a shot worth taking for the SU win.

 

[Hello]

After much debate im adding carolina +7 to the list of golden picks.

Here are my picks:

browns +2
jags-2
GB-3?
SF -3
Ravens+3
SD-4.5
Car+7

For the sanctity of the original thead heres my picks.....

browns +2
jags-2
GB-3?
SF -3
Ravens+3