AAAintheBeltway honorary 2010 NFL thread.

Nothing really stood out for me this week, so i made some bets on almost nothing this week, just so i can cheer for certain games.

First pick Houston -2.5 over Dallas
winner: Houston

I think schaub is clearly getting the job done in houston, he has silenced alot of critics so far by beating Indy, and getting his team off to a 2-0 start. Plus Arian Foster has had his moments as well, i had a chance to pick him in one of my drafts cause my buddy i watch NFL with on sundays usually, told me he was going to be a beast but i glossed over him, and went with someone i thought would be safe, then he puts up 40 fantasy points in week 1. Dallas has struggled so far, but i am scared of this pick because Dallas has seemed to pull the same routine for the last couple years, coming out red hot for a couple weeks then ice cold for a couple. Its in Houston so i will take a red hot houston team over an ice cold dallas team.

Pick: Houston -2.5

My other 2 picks are just basically picking two teams because i know i will be watching these 2 games closely, and i wanted to cheer for someone like i said i did these 2 games are only 20 bucks a game which is 1/5th-1/10th my regular wager, depending if i think its a lock, so i am not including these 2 picks for my thread performance.

Second Pick Steelers -2.5 over Tampa
winner: steelers

Im probably pushing my luck with a 4th string QB in this week with the steelers, but thats why i bet extremely light. The steelers defense is playing unreal football right now, and i think Dick Lebeau has them totally hyped up right now, they know they have to carry the team on their shoulders till rapelesberger gets back and so far they have been getting the job done. I just cant see a young Tampa team knowing what to do about the steeler defense right now, and it isnt like any of the other Steeler QB's have done anything on offense to get them to a 2-0 start.

Pick: steelers -2.5

Third Pick Eagles -2.5 over Jags
Winner: Eagles

I bet on Vick last week, but the lions actually kept it close, but that was through no fault of Vicks, he played unreal as i expected him to, and i expect the same to continue this week, as he knows this is probably the best shot he has at becoming a starting QB in the NFL again. So i will go with him again.

Pick: Eagles -2.5

Picks
Houston -2.5
Steelers-2.5
Eagles -2.5

Good luck in week 3 everyone!
 
A weekend that for me once again confirmed the importance of picking games with great discipline.

I liked the Giants, Pats, Ravens and Vikes going in, but saw enough red flags with them to avoid them. Good thing. The Giants lost the game to the Titans, and the Vikes were the only other one to cover. The Pats, giving 14, won by 8. Baltimore, giving 10.5, won by a TD. The Vikes covered 11.5 with a 14 point win.

Horrible outing by the Redskins. Jerry Jones must be wondering how the Cowboys lost to them. Steelers getting it done so far.

If you were a SD fan, just how angry would you be at their GM? They played hardball with Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil and basically have blown their season.

Is Seattle for real?

What happened to SF? I thought they were too casual about their QB situation, but this is not all Alex Smith's fault.

I had a lot of arguments with people last year about Mike Vick. I argued the Redskins should have signed him, not to mention QB-challenged teams like the Raiders, Cards, Browns, Bills, Niners, etc. Instead, the ever opportunistic Eagles scooped him up. How smart does that look now. He threw for 3 TDs today and ran for a fourth.
 
I went 2-1 on the week, so it was a decent week.

I am now 5-7 on the season for regular bets, and 2-1 for locks.

I dont have alot of time this week, as im just on my way out the door to the lake for the weekend, but i wanted to give mypicks real quick since i think this is a real good weekend for spread betting.

All three games are LOCKS

First pick: Baltimore+0.5 over the Steelers

There is no way that Charlie Batch is going to be able to repeat what he did in tampa against the Ravens, and i just cant see him being able to get anything done this week, so yes im betting against my beloved Steelers, the only way they will pull this game off is if they manage to pick flacco three times, and they bust out a monster run, or they return one for a touchdown, and i see that as highly unlikely, against a solid ravens defense.

Pick: Ravens +0.5, LOCK

Second pick: NY Jets -4.5 over Buffalo.

Cant see Buffalos offense getting anything done against the Jets Defense, and Sanchez has played well after a home opening stinker.

Pick: Jets -4.5, LOCK

Third pick: Houston -3.5 Oakland

Houston played terrible last week but i still havent lost faith in them, and they should cruise past oakland this weekend.

Pick: Houston -3.5

All three picks are locks so bet the farm on these three. :D

Ravens +0.5
Jets -4.5
Houston -3.5
 
NFL Lines For Week 4 - NFL Football Line Week Four
NFL Line 10/3 - 10/4, 2010
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/3 1:00 ET At Tennessee -6.5 Denver 42.5
10/3 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -2.5 Baltimore 34.5
10/3 1:00 ET Cincinnati -3 At Cleveland 37.5
10/3 1:00 ET At Green Bay -14 Detroit 45.5
10/3 1:00 ET At New Orleans -13.5 Carolina 44.5
10/3 1:00 ET At Atlanta -7 San Francisco 42.5
10/3 1:00 ET Seattle -1 At St. Louis 40
10/3 1:00 ET NY Jets -5.5 At Buffalo 36.5
10/3 4:05 ET Indianapolis -7 At Jacksonville 46
10/3 4:05 ET Houston -3 At Oakland 43
10/3 4:15 ET At San Diego -8.5 Arizona 45.5
10/3 4:15 ET At Philadelphia -5.5 Washington 43
10/3 8:20 ET At NY Giants -3.5 Chicago 43.5



Monday Night Football Line

10/4 8:35 ET New England -1 At Miami 46.5
 
My bookie only gave me ravens +0.5, and i still liked the game, with the extra 2 points i would bet my life on it..... what the hell is going on with the numbers i am getting from him.... I got an extra point on the jets game though...

I guess now i know he is clearly handicapping his own games.

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

NFL Lines For Week 4 - NFL Football Line Week Four
NFL Line 10/3 - 10/4, 2010
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/3 1:00 ET At Tennessee -6.5 Denver 42.5
10/3 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -2.5 Baltimore 34.5
10/3 1:00 ET Cincinnati -3 At Cleveland 37.5
10/3 1:00 ET At Green Bay -14 Detroit 45.5
10/3 1:00 ET At New Orleans -13.5 Carolina 44.5
10/3 1:00 ET At Atlanta -7 San Francisco 42.5
10/3 1:00 ET Seattle -1 At St. Louis 40
10/3 1:00 ET NY Jets -5.5 At Buffalo 36.5
10/3 4:05 ET Indianapolis -7 At Jacksonville 46
10/3 4:05 ET Houston -3 At Oakland 43
10/3 4:15 ET At San Diego -8.5 Arizona 45.5
10/3 4:15 ET At Philadelphia -5.5 Washington 43
10/3 8:20 ET At NY Giants -3.5 Chicago 43.5



Monday Night Football Line

10/4 8:35 ET New England -1 At Miami 46.5
More...
 
The only games that interest me at all are GB, NO and Philly, giving the points in each. I'll pass on GB after a horrible MNF outing. They'll probably blow out Detroit, but's it's a lot of points and the Lions are not as bad as they once were. They could have easily beaten the Bears.

NO looks pretty good against a bad Carolina team, but Carolina can do one thing, run the football, and NO has shown some weakness when facing physical run teams. Like the last two weeks.

Philly has been the surprise of the NFC East, with Mike Vick suddenly looking better than he ever played. How smart were they to sign him last year? How dumb were the QB-challenged teams like the Redskins, Niners, Cards, Browns, Bills, Panthers etc not to sign him? Morons.

Anyway, the Redskins are playing worse, week by week. They totally stunk losing to St. L last week. Why expect anything different here? Well, it is McNabb's homecoming. Hope he isn't expecting much from the Iggles' notoriously unforgiving fans. These NFC East affairs tend to turn into street fights though, so it's just too hard to take the obvious bet and give the points.
 
Week 4

Current Record 1 - 5

Seattle at St Louis

Line Seattle -1

Pick St Louis

Comment: There are 2 teams that come from the Pacific Northwest, Seattle at home and Seattle on the road. One is terrible one should be a favorite in every game it plays. I think St Louis wins this game easily.

Houston at Oakland

Line Houston -3

Pick Oakland

Comment: A banged up Andre Johnson will allow the Oakland D to stuff againist the run. Did you know that McFadden is the leagues 3rd leading rusher? I think oakland will win this game.

Wash at Philly

Line Philly -5.5

Pick: Philly

Comment: Philly is turning into a Defensive coordinators nightmare. You have to keep over help from the saftey for Desean Jackson. You have to stop McCoy from getting 5 yard chucks. There is a tight end who is huge and catches everything over the middle. Now throw in a QB who somehow after going to jail has figured out that he should be using his legs to extend plays longer, escape blitzes and getting first downs rather then being a option 1 not open then run QB. If this is how vick is going to play then I really except Philly to be the team to beat in the NFC. But then again, its only been 2 games.


Cin at Clev

Line Cin -3

Pick Clev

Comment: Cleveland has had the lead in all its games in the 4th quarter. I have a feeling they figure out how to keep it in the battle of jobless Ohio cities.
 
First real good week thus far in the season. I went 3 for 3 on locks so it is max bet, and i cleaned house.

I am 8-7 on my picks thus far through the year but 5-1 on locks, and as i stated from day 1 i always bet twice as much on locks so im up pretty heavily on my bets so far.

It started off bad but it is starting to get better, here is the ATS rankings for any other die hard spread bettors. I pay close attention to these lists.

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What stands out to me when looking at that chart for bad teams is Cards, Bills, Panthers, and the raiders, they are a decent team to bet against thus far.

Teams we also like are Lions, Jets, Steelers, Rams.

I can attest to this as i have lost twice betting against the lions and the rams, and once against the steelers.

Odds thus far say bet on the Lions, Jets, Steelers, and Rams.

Bet against Cards, Bills, Panthers and Raiders....

GL all!!
 

Attachments

Current Record: 3-7

Week 5

NYG at Houston

Line Houston -3

Pick Houston

Comment: One good game by the Giants does not fool anyone. They might be able to stop the run or the pass, but not both.

KC at Indy

Line: Indy -7

Pick Indy

Comment: Indy at home has been a totally different team then the colts on the road. I dont except them to stop KC from running the ball, but I dont expect KC to stop Peyton at all.
 
Here are the week 5 spreads.

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/10 1:00 ET At Baltimore -7 Denver 39.5
10/10 1:00 ET At Buffalo -1 Jacksonville 41
10/10 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -7 Kansas City 45.5
10/10 1:00 ET At Detroit -3 St. Louis 43
10/10 1:00 ET Atlanta -3 At Cleveland 41.5
10/10 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -6.5 Tampa Bay 38
10/10 1:00 ET At Carolina -1.5 Chicago 33
10/10 1:00 ET Green Bay -2.5 At Washington 44
10/10 1:00 ET At Houston -3 NY Giants 47.5
10/10 4:05 ET New Orleans -6.5 At Arizona 44
10/10 4:15 ET San Diego -6 At Oakland 45
10/10 4:15 ET At Dallas -7 Tennessee 42
10/10 8:20 ET At San Francisco -3 Philadelphia 38



Monday Night Football Line

10/11 8:35 ET At NY Jets -4 Minnesota 39
 
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