AA,(alcoa) Ready for Breakout ?

interresting situation at AA , thoughts ?

zH1Tmo4l.png


HD link http://imgur.com/zH1Tmo4


the recent signs of strenght in AA , could yield into some long setups , i drew in two scenarios to participate in a potential long setup
 
You can't use technicals to predict earnings reports, and as you know AA will soon kick the earnings season.

Sometimes, info leaks and you can see the footprints of big money behind such leak, but it's reliability is far from desired due to "traps" big money is also famous for laying.
 
Quote from MadeMan:

interresting situation at AA , thoughts ?

zH1Tmo4l.png


HD link http://imgur.com/zH1Tmo4


the recent signs of strenght in AA , could yield into some long setups , i drew in two scenarios to participate in a potential long setup

Hi MadeMan,

There is no clear "breakout" here, so what's this all about?

Unless someone, somewhere is trying to dump a million shares of AA at our expenses, here on ET and elsewhere...
 
OP,

What's the point of the technical analysis of the past?

I always get a kick out of those old "marks".

Only the present and future matter, rest is over.
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

You can't use technicals to predict earnings reports, and as you know AA will soon kick the earnings season.

Sometimes, info leaks and you can see the footprints of big money behind such leak, but it's reliability is far from desired due to "traps" big money is also famous for laying.



yea , i cant predict , but anticipate/participate and take
responsibilty for my position , however i will only enter .. if> then ,
else...

you mentioned "traps" ...


well, the current situation might implys just that. just think about
every average joe blow , sees that AA is a resistance @10.80
waiting for a breakout to the upside and rush in with buy stops /
market orders whatever.. to play the breakout to the longside..


but this demand/strength/liquidity created can be used by big
boys , to sell into , or dump .. ie. fading the breakout , maybe they
use the earnings report aswell for that purpose.. who knows ?

but then again iam not that agressive , i wouldnt play a breakout
straight away but rather wait and see how the market resonses
to such a breakout , if ever
 
Quote from xelite777:

Hi MadeMan,

There is no clear "breakout" here, so what's this all about?

Unless someone, somewhere is trying to dump a million shares of AA at our expenses, here on ET and elsewhere...


hi

yea there is no breakout as of yet , except on smaller time frames
but we sit at an interresting level @resistance where only two things
can happen ,

1 a reversal /rejection of Res.

2 a breakout

one could play both if that is in his trading plan...
 
Quote from Trader.Fighter:

OP,

What's the point of the technical analysis of the past?

I always get a kick out of those old "marks".

Only the present and future matter, rest is over.


Well , thats how i operate and judge the markets.
Iam not here to convince you that this is the way to trade
or something, but the past does hold some information in it
it represent the prints, ie. the trades which have been fasciliated
, where value is and where price got rejeceted, where is balance
and where imbalance , where demand or buying pressure is
present or where selling and supply is overpowering or where a
shift or change in behaviour in supply vs demand takes place etc..

btw. Your Present , might not be the present of another
participant, as you know, there are Longterm and shortterm
traders/investors etc..alike Different participants have different
timeframes for buying and/or selling; longer timeframe
participants seek to buy low and sell high,and short timeframe
participants must transact sooner and cannot be as
discriminating. In other words, a given price is not viewed as an
equal opportunity for all. The market cannot at any one moment
balance all the needs and concerns of the entire marketplace -
participants in every known and unknown timeframe
- since the most recent price does not represent the same thing
to all participants. In other words, no single price represents fair
value


Most of the popular prejudice against charts is due to the fact that
many people mistakenly attempt to use charts in a mechanically
fashion. They endeavour to draw diagrams or imaginary
geometrical patterns on their charts and as such lead to error and
fail. When you study charts look for the motive behind the action
which a chart portrays. Aim to interpret the behaviour of the
market and not the fancy patterns which the chart accidentally
creates.


and right know AA does have recent signs of strenght in the
background , however we are at an location where it wouldnt be
wise to go long, as we sit at a resistance level , we need to watch
how the market acts at this level ,, does it breakout? if so how
does the market react to it ? how can i participate? does the
market reverse ie. rejects resistance? if so how does the market
react to it ? how and in which way can i participate?

i know what i will do ... do you ?
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

You can't use technicals to predict earnings reports, and as you know AA will soon kick the earnings season.

Sometimes, info leaks and you can see the footprints of big money behind such leak, but it's reliability is far from desired due to "traps" big money is also famous for laying.


so , what happend on monday , a workday after the numbers ?
which where, as i read , rather weak ...

well this looks like a selling cimax, where buying into weakness
may occured , however we only know if this is a valid SC if a retest of the lows hold...

doesnt look that weak,, does it ?

KNA8NJJ.png
 
so , what happend on monday , a workday after the numbers ?
which where, as i read , rather weak ...

well this looks like a selling cimax, where buying into weakness
may occured , however we only know if this is a valid SC if a retest of the lows hold...

doesnt look that weak,, does it ?

KNA8NJJ.png

this mofo , sure goes hard :cool:

8eozeEV.png
 
I like Alcoa, we were up on a down day and down on a up day. Alcoa is a stock of great patience, like Boston Scientific (BSX), with big Auto moving with Aluminum and other high tech materials, I have been on this ride and see no reason to jump off. I think we hit $16 by July 2014, my price target is based off the Market not cratering in the ground.
 
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