The IMF knows what it's talking about forecasting 3% contraction (though this may be too bullish, actually), but is clueless in forecasting any growth, let alone raising it's growth forecast for 2010, let alone anytime before 2013 (at earliest).
â¢World Bank Says Global Economy to Shrink 3%, More Than Estimated; Green Shoots!
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The IMF knows what it's talking about forecasting 3% contraction (though this may be too bullish, actually), but is clueless in forecasting any growth, let alone raising it's growth forecast for 2010, let alone anytime before 2013 (at earliest).
No, however I was telling him about the housing bubble at the time, I remember talking about to him and his friends and they all thought I was crazy, well fast forward to now and there is still one guy I know who is trying to sell his house in florida.
Aside from that I did tell him to sell around 9000 and take his losses of approx. 12-15k and tell him to wait for the next decline of 15-20% to get back in.
I see markets at the end of 2009 as roughly where they are right now (S&P500 ~ 950). We will probably break 1000 at some point but I don't expect it to stay there by the time the end of the year comes. Longer term I am bullish (2-3 years), but I think we need to start seeing some fundamental economic improvement before the markets surge too much higher. Right now I think markets have corrected the "end of the world" scenario from last fall and we are at a reasonable level.
That being said, I am currently net long and will ride this wave until I am sure the market has turned against me. I just don't see a catalyst that would send markets tanking too fast for me to get out of my longs (i.e. big bank failure).