Settle down, only one person is melting down here and it's not me.
I don't know, when you use words like "haters" and "passion" and bring up Mt.Gox and your trading experience back in 2013 it sure looks like you got triggered and melted down. But sure, cognitive dissonance is a bitch right?
There's currently no risk free way way to arb the CME contract. If there was a broker who allowed you to hold BTC in your account (none that I know of that also allow CME trading?) or if there was a bitcoin ETF that traded on a regulated U.S. exchange and allowed full redemption and creation rights, that arb would collapse to a small amount that reflected the asynchronous exposure you end up with from trading hours.
Since we don't know if/when CME will allow spot to be held as collateral this is merely a hypothetical scenario currently. It's one I'm inclined to agree with and if the basis collapses only on CME/BAKKT then you are right. If basis doesn't do that then you are wrong.
See, what I've done here? I've not only shared an explanation and admitted I could be wrong, but also provided a way I can be proven wrong. Are you capable of the same?
So again, settle down, share your explanation, and we can discuss it and hopefully we'll both learn something. Otherwise what's the point of this conversation?
I read your explanation. I also posted mine previously. This difference is I'm pretty confident I'm right and you are wrong in the underlined above. Why? I've already seen basis collapse in CME BTC futures in previous years. Empirical sure, but I'll trust my experience over your words.