A warning to would be Forex traders
- Thread starter Joab
- Start date
what do you think TA is based on?
regards,
surfer
For every TA pattern that you show that has failed, I can show you another one that worked. Some do, some don't. As long as you start with higher time frames and work your way down to the one you are considering taking the signal from, you will increase probability.
Just an example, the easiest TA pattern ever. Switch on EUR/USD 15 min chart and run a 200 moving average on it, nothing else. Have a glance over the last 6 months how many opportunities existed after a bar crosses & closes above/below the MA, by just simply going in the same direction as the close? Numerous. And not much point bringing up hindsight here. Hindsight is a lesson to be learnt by people very new to trading, others with experience looking at the chart will see tradable opportunities almost every day offering excellent R:R. Now applying this method to your own understanding of money management and staying in a trade is another matter. In the end of the day, what is 200ma? It's a line in a sand, but unlike many other such lines it is one of the ones that carries a lot more meaning & value. So an easy example would be working out times of the day 200MA is broken with 'follow through', set your stops so many pips below/above 200MA depending on your criteria, trail your stop. Then come back here and hopefully you will change your mind. Trust me, I also belong to people that used to doubt reliability of TA previously, mainly due to my personal inability to interpret it in a smart way.
Just an example, the easiest TA pattern ever. Switch on EUR/USD 15 min chart and run a 200 moving average on it, nothing else. Have a glance over the last 6 months how many opportunities existed after a bar crosses & closes above/below the MA, by just simply going in the same direction as the close? Numerous. And not much point bringing up hindsight here. Hindsight is a lesson to be learnt by people very new to trading, others with experience looking at the chart will see tradable opportunities almost every day offering excellent R:R. Now applying this method to your own understanding of money management and staying in a trade is another matter. In the end of the day, what is 200ma? It's a line in a sand, but unlike many other such lines it is one of the ones that carries a lot more meaning & value. So an easy example would be working out times of the day 200MA is broken with 'follow through', set your stops so many pips below/above 200MA depending on your criteria, trail your stop. Then come back here and hopefully you will change your mind. Trust me, I also belong to people that used to doubt reliability of TA previously, mainly due to my personal inability to interpret it in a smart way.
Romik, you just had to mention the 200ppd ma, now everybody knows
And just because a pattern works this week, month, year does not mean it will work next week month year!
The Ever Adapting VIPER
And just because a pattern works this week, month, year does not mean it will work next week month year!The Ever Adapting VIPER
Yes Viper, sorry. I couldn't be certain what Joab was referring to exactly, he mentioned stops have to be wider compared to equity futures? I thought stop depends on certain % max loss to capital and an estimated profit target. Last Friday I've done some very short term trades based on 1 min MACD 0 line cross, there was no size traded, it was similar to playing BJ at the Sahara (LV) 1 min MACD, man, so many whipsaws, average stop upon reversal ~7 pips, following B1S2's recent experiment which included increasing size after a loss (not doubling) last Friday's 'Yo-Yo' flip-trading ended up being Net positive. So TA definitely works in most markets, it's how we apply the knowledge makes it either a profitable way or it doesn't.
1 min MACD, man, so many whipsaws, average stop upon reversal ~7 pips, following B1S2's recent experiment which included increasing size after a loss (not doubling) last Friday's 'Yo-Yo' flip-trading ended up being Net positive. So TA definitely works in most markets, it's how we apply the knowledge makes it either a profitable way or it doesn't.