Long ES @ 1394, Target 1404, Stop 1384.
A Very Simple System...
- Thread starter keeptradin'
- Start date
Covered ES long @ 97.50 (MOC), +2.5.
Cumulative P/L: +9.75 (Fourteen trades).
Long ES @ 98.25, Target 08.25, Stop 88.25. 
Quote from keeptradin':
Long ES @ 98.25, Target 08.25, Stop 88.25.
Covered ES long @ 88.25 (Stopped out) -10.
Cumulative P/L: -.25 (Fifteen trades).
Thanks for sharing your opinion, just leave out the insults, please. It's bad enough to have Beau hatin' on me. :eek:
I agree that losing money after commissions on fifteen trades is not a viable method. I will continue the system in it's current form for five more trades, then makes some changes to see if it can become profitable.
Long ES @ 79.75, Target 89.75, Stop 69.75.
I'm rooting for you keeptradin! There's always an ES ticker open every morning so I can see how its going.
I think this is a fun idea - take a basic method, test it, then hopefully slowly build it into something. Great exercise to demonstrate that you have to start somewhere.
But godforbid your VSS turns into something... what would we need all the quant masters for
JO
It's tough to "prove" or "disprove" a system in such a short time. I'm not saying it shouldn't be tweaked, but if you are constantly fiddling with it, how will you ever know? Maybe the concept is valid but the parameters need to be pegged to current market conditions (ATR multiple instead of fixed values), etc, etc?
If it's losing now, just switch to sim.
Perhaps you just need to know when to turn it on/off?
Maybe you could track the daily performance and after a substantial drawdown period (i.e: a ranging or downward market), "bang!", you're now in a market which is favorable for your system.
The thread was interesting- and will be in the future should you continue it. Likely it will improve as you develop, refine , and test new methods.
Aside from the derogatory comments to your initial approach as being "stupid" -perhaps the wording should have been less personal and more cautionary specific to the perceived weakness of the simplistic approach you were suggesting. That would have established a better tone early on.
All that being said- You have received some constructive feedback and it sounds as though you are willing to adapt your strategy. So, you've started with a basic approach, and will now make modifications to improve the results.
I'm not a day trader, and periodically am out of the markets, and then back in, and try to adapt my small account swing trading, and the IRA to the market at hand. Never traded ES- Never the less, that said, some observations:
Bwolinski eventually gave you valid feedback on backtesting your approach and perhaps ways to improve it- His backtesting analysis actually caught my attention- as it is a "tool" one could use if one has a defined approach to the markets- I think Backtesting an approach is a tool I hope to acquire in the future to analyze my discretionary swing trading . It certainly gives an analytical starting point for an approach- If backtesting can include parameters that could keep one out of the market - If backtesting can Show when an approach only succeeds
within certain markets- It could allow you to target those markets, while staying out when conditions are not favorable.
Like you, I'm limited by manually looking backwards- To learn to use a tool that could backtest over a wide range of past markets- would save a lot of time, and perhaps give insight as to how to modify one's approach in different market conditions.
You have mentioned the effect of world politics- as an overhang- Why not have a way to step aside, go short., or reduce the position, tighten the stop? How does one recognize that an exposure to external elements that affect the markets make it prudent to increase or decrease one's position? What if one is wrong on their assessment of how the markets will react to those conditions?
Some of the other comments included making adjustments slowly - The issue with "changing" your approach to meet present market conditions, is that those conditions will change, and adapting 'trails' the market- What happens when the market transitions from trending to the chop of 2011> If you adapt an approach to 'fit' today's market- ....what about tomorrow?
If one changes one's approach today, and finds some success, what happens when the market changes in 6 weeks again- or in 6 months?
Perhaps one should have 3 separate approaches to an uptrending market, downtrending market, consolidating market, and a way to define when each of those markets exist. Perhaps only enter on confirmation of the larger picture/trend and go with that trend.
What about finding a correlated trade for confirmation of the trend-?
What happens if one reduced the frequency of trades and only selected the "best" trades that meant trading with the trend? What signal does one use?
How about an increase/decrease in position size off the entry signal?
Good Luck with "adapting" to a moving target- Market Psycholgy-
SD
Aside from the derogatory comments to your initial approach as being "stupid" -perhaps the wording should have been less personal and more cautionary specific to the perceived weakness of the simplistic approach you were suggesting. That would have established a better tone early on.
All that being said- You have received some constructive feedback and it sounds as though you are willing to adapt your strategy. So, you've started with a basic approach, and will now make modifications to improve the results.
I'm not a day trader, and periodically am out of the markets, and then back in, and try to adapt my small account swing trading, and the IRA to the market at hand. Never traded ES- Never the less, that said, some observations:
Bwolinski eventually gave you valid feedback on backtesting your approach and perhaps ways to improve it- His backtesting analysis actually caught my attention- as it is a "tool" one could use if one has a defined approach to the markets- I think Backtesting an approach is a tool I hope to acquire in the future to analyze my discretionary swing trading . It certainly gives an analytical starting point for an approach- If backtesting can include parameters that could keep one out of the market - If backtesting can Show when an approach only succeeds
within certain markets- It could allow you to target those markets, while staying out when conditions are not favorable.
Like you, I'm limited by manually looking backwards- To learn to use a tool that could backtest over a wide range of past markets- would save a lot of time, and perhaps give insight as to how to modify one's approach in different market conditions.
You have mentioned the effect of world politics- as an overhang- Why not have a way to step aside, go short., or reduce the position, tighten the stop? How does one recognize that an exposure to external elements that affect the markets make it prudent to increase or decrease one's position? What if one is wrong on their assessment of how the markets will react to those conditions?
Some of the other comments included making adjustments slowly - The issue with "changing" your approach to meet present market conditions, is that those conditions will change, and adapting 'trails' the market- What happens when the market transitions from trending to the chop of 2011> If you adapt an approach to 'fit' today's market- ....what about tomorrow?
If one changes one's approach today, and finds some success, what happens when the market changes in 6 weeks again- or in 6 months?
Perhaps one should have 3 separate approaches to an uptrending market, downtrending market, consolidating market, and a way to define when each of those markets exist. Perhaps only enter on confirmation of the larger picture/trend and go with that trend.
What about finding a correlated trade for confirmation of the trend-?
What happens if one reduced the frequency of trades and only selected the "best" trades that meant trading with the trend? What signal does one use?
How about an increase/decrease in position size off the entry signal?
Good Luck with "adapting" to a moving target- Market Psycholgy-
SD