A Very Simple System...

K

keeptradin'

Buy the Open.

Ten point target, ten point stop.

If neither is reached, MOC.

Actual trade results to be posted beginning 4/13.

Thoughts...
 
Quote from keeptradin':



Thoughts...
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Yes,it could be very simple if you start in October and shut it down by the end of March,then switch and repeat it all vice versa.
 
I would suspect the Day of Week has a meaningful impact on the trade outcome ... specifically, in a bull market, you'll probably see price going lower Monday / Tuesday (more losers on these days), then going higher the remainder of the week (more winners on those days) ... and the reverse in bear markets.

You could look for a similar effect for Time of Day, too.


I am sure you did backtest this, care to share these results?
 
also, if you are referring to the S&P, then +/- 10 pts is a 'breaking point' meaning you should look at strategies that are mean reverting or going against the trade IF the S&P is within 10 pts of its previous close, however, IF it goes beyond 10 PTS they you have to reverse and go WITH the movement, because after 10 pts it tends to trend
 
I should have clarified that this is for the ES contract, I forgot that not everyone is fixated on one symbol as I have become.

I backtested from the beginning of the year, which of course has been a bull market, so results were positive. April has been a tougher month, but is still profitable.

I looked at MAE and MFE for each days trade, and found that using a ten point stop limited stop-outs on the choppy range days. On the breakout days the MAE was usually ~ 16-20 points, so a ten point stop limited the damage. Reversing on these breakout days may not be a bad idea, but that would add a wrinkle to what I want to be a very simple system.

I am not able to automate this due to my lack of programming knowledge, so have been doing it the old fashioned way by plotting the days action with pen and paper. It is a slow process, but also a learning experience to look at each days action, and see how the market ebbs and flows.

I will begin trading this today, as Black Friday seems appropriate launch a new project. The trades will be made in my NT sim account, and I will post results and a screen shot of the days chart.

Stay tuned for more exciting adventures...:D
 
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