A Very Profitable Methodology

thanks for the post; my answers are below...

Quote from dac8555:

If i follow you, sounds like your approach is mostly fundamental with a strong "increase in volume element". not a bad way to go. I dont care to know your exact methodology...for obvious reasons that it didnt come from my breain....but what screening program are you using please? My personal proprietary method I developed

If i may ask, despite being mechanical, do you have at least any macroeconomic element? At this time i have a indirect macro element although the neural netowrk i am developing will incorporate macro... it is difficult to quantify and analyze all this info, i.e. to include macro, without the aid of computers or evene better neural network... righ now my model however will "feel" when those macro trends in a "trickle down" manner are not there and not provide me with any or as many names... so du to attrition I will inherently sit on more cash when macor trends are not there but, even in slow/bad times i will find what is making money and where teh capital is flowing (if at all) I noticed WLS on your list which is a luxury homebuilder i follow....i have to say it is bound to take a significant hit in the years to come simply due to its profle. the beauty of my system is i dont care what occurn in years to come :-), but at this time WLS did not make my cut and i probably will not be taking a position in this name
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Quote from xtraderx:


this brings my average trade up to 11.23% per trade, holding for an average of 48 days and a mind blowing 85.39% annualized.
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mind blowing? i would consider 200%+ mind blowing, but maybe I have higher expectations...i try to avg about+0.50% per trade day which i theory would be around 120%. don't get me wrong though...your results are still very nice!!


keep up the good work:)
 
Quote from mhashe:

Excellent returns. Would you say your average holding period is 30 days?
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right now its 48 calendar days, its been skewed higher because the winners have been running up so nice i have been holding longer, but "typically" it is closer to 30 days...
 
Quote from RunTrade:

mind blowing? i would consider 200%+ mind blowing, but maybe I have higher expectations...i try to avg about+0.50% per trade day which i theory would be around 120%. don't get me wrong though...your results are still very nice!!


keep up the good work:)
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You are right on BOTH accounts! Many traders would not consider that mindblowing and you DO have high expectations, LOL !

But in all seriousness, I am looking at this from a retail perspective (remember my goal is to go retail with this) and a retail customer would find these numbers very attractive.

But many good traders make well in excess of a 200% return off of their capital and great ones even 1,000%+; how ever at that point, imo, i don't really think of that as a true "return" because they are not investing for any length of time and seeing "returns" off those funds. Instead they have "risk capital" and are trading as a skill and making money as a skill not an investor. Just an observation.
 
Glad I added to ARD on Tuesday, it had a nice day yesterday and back up again this morning... right now I am holding tight, keeping an eye on the shop and waiting to see if santa brings any rally of sorts... if so i will take profits into any strength at year end/january...
 
Looks like Santa stiffed us up this year but it was a nice ride up to here so no complaints… while Santa was busy hitting the egg nog and standing us up I was busy taking profits and tightening stops...

The past week I have taken a lot of profits and lightened up a lot.

ARD-Sold lots on 12/27 at 27.95 for a 19% gain, and on 12/30 sold another lot for 27.71 a 18% gain. I still am maintaining half my position.

NTRI-on 12/28 I closed the rest of my position at 36.23, for 14% gain so I averaged 19% on the total position.

HOLX-closed my position at 37.88 (split adjusted)for a 38% gain.

GMXR-closed my position today, ½ lot at 40.20 and then as selling persisted I closed the other ½ at 38.88. Averaged a 75% gain!!!!!!!! I almost fell in love with this one, what a great stock!!! I am stalking it to possibly get back in at a better price but there may be more selling in store behind today’s sell off. May use more weakness to take advantage and get back in.

ASF- closed out position, ½ on 12/27 at 43.34 and the other ½ on 12/30 at 42.72. Gained 11% on this trade, kinda ho hum compared to some of my others but this is my bread and butter in the 10-20% range gain in 30-45 days.

YHOO- closed entire position on 12/27 at 39.96 for a 17% gain.

TALX- picked up another lot on 12/28 for 46.10, my only buy side in the past week.

I am holding a lot of cash right now awaiting my next screen and seeing what the broader market does. Here are my current positions:

Symbol Last Trade Paid Gain Trade Date
ARD 29-Dec 27.71 22.97 20.64% 10-Oct-05
HANS 29-Dec 79.5 43.82 81.42% 10-Oct-05
RTSX 29-Dec 35.5 34.25 3.65% 19-Dec-05
TALX 29-Dec 46.68 44.595 4.68%
I will post an easier to read spreadsheet as requested...

Happy New Year!!!!
 
got filled on a bid today on TALX at 45.32 to add to my position but I am keeping a close eye on it... 45 level appears to be a key battleground.
 
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