A very powerful fut's strategy

Quote from taofinance:

Hi OP,

I have been trading full time for under a year now, and in the beginning I used to do some of what you describe (mainly on sweeps in the opposite direction). Suffice it to say, took big rips, made big chops, and had headaches all day, so I changed.

As time went on and I reviewed my trades, it turned out I was... *early* to enter the position. I saw a chart patten and traded without a catalyst, I averaged a loser when the price movement indicated I was wrong at that time. That is not to say the trade passed, it could happen in a minute, an hour, or not at all. I think that near perfect timing in trades occurs in about a 10 second span for NYSE.

At this point I see more of a need to be efficient. This month I have made around 10k so far (on 600 shares avg trade), but without the sub-par trading responses I still have I could have made probably 10-30% more.

Why lose money? I think improving timing and speed of reaction is much better than taking hits every time you see a play. Much better to be exact and be immediately in the money when you enter a position.

Hope that helps.

p.s.: I think that money/risk management is what it it ALL about, and I believe that a... bit of work is needed in that area. Doubling down is suicide on a breakdown of support.

I don't do this in continuation patterns. I do it at reversal areas after a large decline or rise. Today's premarket drop was a perfect example. DD on something like a support break or a resistance break would be pure stupidity. I don't trade breakouts -- ever! That's the absolute worst strategy for day trading. I trade extreme price movements per statistical analysis. A consolidation area is not extreme anything so I would use this method for that type of setup.
 
Quote from syswizard:

We've all been thru this before....without the "stats", all of this talk is just time-wasting.
Avg $ Win per trade
Avg $ Loss per trade
Avg Pct Winning Trades
# Trades per Month
"...just the facts Ma'am....nothin but the facts"
HELLO - WHERE ARE YOUR STATS ?
Don't tell me you don't track them ?
Who can believe you without these ?
 
Oh, I agree. I absolutely agree, you could make alot of money with this as the money management part of your strategy. The thing is, you haven't given us the rest of the strategy, though. What are your triggers? What are your setups? How do you determine your stops?

I mean, aren't you leaving out most of what you really need to make the Martingale work?

And given a very successful trading method, couldn't you actually make most traditional money management techniques work, except perhaps the all in approach?

And doesn't a truly sound money management plan actually help those traders who have only marginally successful trading methods, more than, say, the Martingale would?

Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

Absolutely agree. I have gotten stung and it will happen again. At some point you have to flip the switch. My platform comes with a circuit breaker. Once I'm down $X I'm liquidated and locked out until the next day. I know this is a high risk strategy but I'm fully aware of the risk, the consequences, and the profit potential.

It doesn't surprise me at all that I'm taking a lot of heat on this topic. It's not mainstream by any stretch but it works well for me. The only thing I really wanted to accomplish tonight is to give someone something to think about if you're open to it. If it's not for you then that's cool.
 
Quote from syswizard:

HELLO - WHERE ARE YOUR STATS ?
Don't tell me you don't track them ?
Who can believe you without these ?

A method like this, using multiple accounts and averaging in as the trend moves against, statistically speaking, would probably be very hard to track ... and show a winning percentage.

JJ
 
In plain english, what the OP is saying is that setup A is not very reliable so he takes a small position, if setup A fails, that is actually a signal, a signal that setup B has a very high probability of working, therefore he doubles his size on the 2nd trade.

So he is basically betting more when he has better odds.

The multiple accounts is just a way to 'segregate' the money in his head, it is more for psychological purposes.
 
Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

I use a double down strategy under certain situations (I would have to go into great length to explain what these situations are...perhaps another day), and it's something that I have found to be very powerful if it is used correctly. Now it's time to take that strategy one step further. I have 2 futures (actually 3 if you count IB) trading accounts and what I've found is if I have to use the DD 3 is usually the magic number so consider the following scenario:

All of these numbers are hypothetical and simplified for obvious reasons. In account Number 1 I buy 1 contract and lose $100. I buy 2 contracts and lose $200, for a total loss of $300. I buy 4 contracts and make $800 for a total profit of $500. In this account I had to work off the $300 loss before I started showing a profit. Now consider the following:

In account Number 2 I don't begin trading until I get to my 3rd DD trade in account Number 1. At this point, I have the option of going with 4 contracts (the current amount in account number 1) or 1 contract. This decision would be based on a number of things, but mainly on the look of the chart and the time of day.

...

A strategy is not a good strategy unless you consider and appreciate the weaknesses of the strategy. You could lose on the 3rd DD in account Number 1 AND account Number 2, which compounds your losses, especially if you take 4 contracts in the 2nd account. But, if you have any confidence in your ability as a trader then this is a very, very powerful strategy!

... are you sure that's what he's doing?

I think you need an epiphany.

He's martingaling his ass off, and because the markets chop back and forth so much, he thinks he has a "very powerful futs strategy", which works until it "blows out", which he has admitted, it already has.

JJ

P.S. My posts are no way meant to be insulting or deamining to anyone ... but I most defintiely do belive a trader should handle a straetgy like this as if he were defusing a time bomb, because eventually it can go KA BLOOM!
 
Quote from Epiphany:

In plain english, what the OP is saying is that setup A is not very reliable so he takes a small position, if setup A fails, that is actually a signal, a signal that setup B has a very high probability of working, therefore he doubles his size on the 2nd trade.

So he is basically betting more when he has better odds.

The multiple accounts is just a way to 'segregate' the money in his head, it is more for psychological purposes.

good observation, I think people missed his money management part. There are total stop loss and each trade stop loss. So it is not normal double down but more like DD after getting stop out.

Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

... Once I'm down $X I'm liquidated and locked out until the next day.

Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

I do use stops! I take my losses quickly and double my contracts on the next trade. It's very profitable crap, backed by verifiable records
 
Quote from syswizard:

HELLO - WHERE ARE YOUR STATS ?
Don't tell me you don't track them ?
Who can believe you without these ?

YOU WOULD LOVE TO HAVE PEOPLE GIVE YOU THEIR SYSTEM

eh system wizard
 
Quote from syswizard:

HELLO - WHERE ARE YOUR STATS ?
Don't tell me you don't track them ?
Who can believe you without these ?

I think you are a smart guy

I think you CAN figure system out with stats only

I won't underestimate you

but keep fishing, OP might
 
Quote from syswizard:

HELLO - WHERE ARE YOUR STATS ?
Don't tell me you don't track them ?
Who can believe you without these ?

Of course I track them. My win rate on the DD is nearly 100% this year. I have 1 loss and it was a BIG one but the money I made prior to that and after the fact has easily exceeded the day I got butchered.
 
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