I guess it's unexpected among economists that are too drunk, high or sleepy to look out the window.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMhGnVzXaSfM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMhGnVzXaSfM
â¢U.S. Initial Jobless Claims "Unexpectedly" Rise as Companies Seek Cost Cuts
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
Agreed. And have you noticed the prices of crude oil zooming up on the hopes of an economic recovery? Nothing's changed since 2007, as soon as real good data comes in, the big guys are going to have oil back up to $140 and much higher.
Oil to $750 per barrel!!!
And cheeseburgers for 100 millionty dollars.
Already hearing on the news reports that the "good news" is that the number of people collecting unemployment dropped slightly. They failed to mention that they were the ones who's bennies ran out.
This is why we know our government is literally lying to us, with malicious intent. We have the proof.
It's no conspiracy theory to claim that the government is telling the American People that unemployment is far lower than it is in reality. It's a fact.
It's no conspiracy theory to claim that the government is telling the American People that the banking system is in stable shape than it is in reality. The banking system is in absolutely terrible shape, by any metric, and getting worse with the passage of time and the rot of loan losses/delinquencies, etc. It's a fact.
It's no conspiracy to claim that the government is telling the American People a whole host of other things that they absolutely know to be patently false. Yet they are.
So what does that say about the state of our republic and democracy?
This was a pretty good read on the numbers and the lies behind them.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Initial jobless claims are one of the few economic numbers where down is good and up is bad. So the unexpected jump of 15,000 new filings to 576,000 in the Aug. 15 week was not good news. The labor markets are still set to improve, but the progress may be more gradual than many hope.
Labor market data had offered some optimism in July. Job losses fell only 247,000, compared with a drop of 443,000 in June and the 691,000 per month average in the first quarter. The July number lifted expectations that layoffs would march toward zero by year-end.
But the latest claims jump raises questions about any August progress because the report covered the week included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report scheduled for release Sept. 4.
After seeing the claims increase, Alan Levenson of T. Rowe Price said, "Monthly payroll change may not improve in August." Joshua Shapiro of economics firm MFR was more pessimistic, pointing out that the latest initial claims level "is consistent with continued weak labor market conditions (-450,000 or so for nonfarm payrolls)."
And while economists at Goldman Sachs are holding off from making a call on payrolls, they noted that the claims data suggest the August number "will be on the disappointing side relative to last month's outcome."
No one is expecting a return to the 600,000-plus layoffs posted in the early months of 2009. But getting back to jobs growth may be delayed until early 2010.
That's because it's not just the direction in claims that's important for the payroll outlook. The level of claims also correlates to the change in payrolls.
Economists at RDQ Economics pointed out new claims need to fall below 400,000 to indicate stable payrolls. And filings have to get to about 325,000 before nonfarm payrolls create around 200,000 jobs per month, a pace needed to bring down the jobless rate (as opposed to July, when the jobless rate slipped to 9.4% as unemployed workers dropped out of the labor force.)
A return to hiring cannot come soon enough for the millions who have lost their jobs. And the recent downturn to 6.2 million for continuing claims - those receiving benefits for more than one week - may mask the true volume of unemployment, said Dan Greenhaus of Miller Tabak.
"We now need to view this data alongside figures for those filing extended benefits and those filing for emergency unemployment compensation," he argued. When those three are combined, Greenhaus said the total number of benefit-collecting unemployed is now 9.52 million, and has been ranging around 9.5 million for most of the summer.
Not all optimism is lost. Levenson said the recent dreary claims numbers may only be a pause in a downtrend, similar to what happened in 1983 after the 1981-82 recession.
Another hope is the manufacturing sector. Thanks to the "cash for clunkers" program, auto makers are calling back laid-off workers and even extending overtime. And the August manufacturing survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed a small gain in the percentage of businesses hiring in the Philly area, and expectations for hiring six months from now remained positive.
Even so, the still high level of claims suggest that for most job seekers, the next few months will remain dismal with businesses laying off more workers than they hire.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Initial jobless claims are one of the few economic numbers where down is good and up is bad. So the unexpected jump of 15,000 new filings to 576,000 in the Aug. 15 week was not good news. The labor markets are still set to improve, but the progress may be more gradual than many hope.
Labor market data had offered some optimism in July. Job losses fell only 247,000, compared with a drop of 443,000 in June and the 691,000 per month average in the first quarter. The July number lifted expectations that layoffs would march toward zero by year-end.
But the latest claims jump raises questions about any August progress because the report covered the week included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report scheduled for release Sept. 4.
After seeing the claims increase, Alan Levenson of T. Rowe Price said, "Monthly payroll change may not improve in August." Joshua Shapiro of economics firm MFR was more pessimistic, pointing out that the latest initial claims level "is consistent with continued weak labor market conditions (-450,000 or so for nonfarm payrolls)."
And while economists at Goldman Sachs are holding off from making a call on payrolls, they noted that the claims data suggest the August number "will be on the disappointing side relative to last month's outcome."
No one is expecting a return to the 600,000-plus layoffs posted in the early months of 2009. But getting back to jobs growth may be delayed until early 2010.
That's because it's not just the direction in claims that's important for the payroll outlook. The level of claims also correlates to the change in payrolls.
Economists at RDQ Economics pointed out new claims need to fall below 400,000 to indicate stable payrolls. And filings have to get to about 325,000 before nonfarm payrolls create around 200,000 jobs per month, a pace needed to bring down the jobless rate (as opposed to July, when the jobless rate slipped to 9.4% as unemployed workers dropped out of the labor force.)
A return to hiring cannot come soon enough for the millions who have lost their jobs. And the recent downturn to 6.2 million for continuing claims - those receiving benefits for more than one week - may mask the true volume of unemployment, said Dan Greenhaus of Miller Tabak.
"We now need to view this data alongside figures for those filing extended benefits and those filing for emergency unemployment compensation," he argued. When those three are combined, Greenhaus said the total number of benefit-collecting unemployed is now 9.52 million, and has been ranging around 9.5 million for most of the summer.
Not all optimism is lost. Levenson said the recent dreary claims numbers may only be a pause in a downtrend, similar to what happened in 1983 after the 1981-82 recession.
Another hope is the manufacturing sector. Thanks to the "cash for clunkers" program, auto makers are calling back laid-off workers and even extending overtime. And the August manufacturing survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed a small gain in the percentage of businesses hiring in the Philly area, and expectations for hiring six months from now remained positive.
Even so, the still high level of claims suggest that for most job seekers, the next few months will remain dismal with businesses laying off more workers than they hire.
Yes it was. Thanks for posting it.
My biggest problem with the article is that it uses the narrower definition of unemployment that I (and many others) have had a problem with all along, as it systematically under-reports continually unemployed workers.
Also, I've mentioned that we in the U.S. appear to be headed for much higher levels of permanent unemployment (which will ultimately reset 'normal' or 'full' unemployment definitions in economic textbooks) if the energy, smart and other types of jobs talked of by both political parties don't arrive in large numbers to replace the loss of manufacturing, finance and IT jobs lost in the last 7 years.
The retail, medical and government sectors of unemployment can not possibly fulfill that role, and even if these sectors could, for assumption's sake, this would distort prices, taxes, wages and services dramatically.
Its funny how hopes of an economic recovery continues to push oil higher, that means if we get back to a 3-4% GDP we should see $150-$200 oil....right???
I would love to see $140 oil and $5.00+ at the pump, you think the economy is bad now, if you had another 100%+ run up in energy prices it would be 3X as worse. $140+ oil hahahah, I love it. Energy prices are high enough where they are today, with oil being manipulated up near $75 a barrel I have to sit back and laugh, there is NO way the economy can sustain oil above $100+..
NO WAY...
S2007S makes a very good point. Gas @ $4.00 would chop off a lot of green shoots, but Gas @ $5.00 a gallon would seriously damage our country.
Ivanovich's article mentions Auto Makers re-hiring due to the Cash for Clunkers Pgrm.
Didn't "Da Gubmint" just announce it's over as of this coming Monday?
Ivanovich's article mentions Auto Makers re-hiring due to the Cash for Clunkers Pgrm.
Didn't "Da Gubmint" just announce it's over as of this coming Monday?