A Truth on Trading.**Everyone, please Read**

[whitster]

"so whats high probability setup?

when your making money while someone else is puking a position. When your opponent has no choice but to exit at a premium."

among others, yes. certainly there are small moves that are probably not seeing major, if any pukage, but the really big moves happen cause people are getting stopped out and margin called left, right and upside down.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Those situations are excellent (in part because of the extra momentum you get) as are the situations that suck a group of traders in and then force them to dump on the opposite side.

But they are not necessary for a high probability setup. Just find something where the probability of a move X in your direction is higher than the probability of a move Y against you. If the probability is 70% or better and X is greater than Y (target vs stop) allowing for slippage and commission then you have a high probability setup with which you can make good money.

 

[whitster]

right.

that's it in a nutshell

i have no idea what the market will do. nobody knows (not even the shadow)

i just know, given situation X that it is (for example) a 65% chance that price will go up 10 pts before it goes down 10 pts.

 

[insert]

I feel sorry for some guys here

I make 1-3 k per day, quite easily and I don't stare at the screen either but I am a day trader

sorry guys I wish you best, I wish the OP strength to continue. (in the mean time I'll take your Money OP)

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from gaj:

well, i've had one down year in the 8 since i've been trading, and if i had my current brokerages / pricing-per-trade/share system, i'd have zero.

so i don't know why *you* think that's far fetched.

mind you, i've had a couple years in the 8 that i could have been working a non-trading job and earned more, but that's not what you were so critical of.

============
Ga;
Unusual in that that would make you profitable 1st year,
takes most ,more time trhan that

 

[mokwit]

Somebody posted on these boards that trading profitably and trading for a living are not the same thing. He was spot on.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from kiwi_trader:

If the probability is 70% or better and X is greater than Y (target vs stop) allowing for slippage and commission then you have a high probability setup with which you can make good money.

===============
Good Diamonds [dia] for daily living Whitster

KiwiT;
I am sure you know this, but many new traders dont believe it.

Even if you work hard enough to hit 77.7%,[ which is unusually high] ;
improper money management[including , but not limited to proper position size]. will insure failure.

And it is a simple but easily provable math principle

In other words if you want to almost insure failure;
start learning with 5 ES, or 5 YM contracts

 

[indahook]

Quote from Spectre2007:

a hunter doesnt randomly shoot into the woods hoping he hits something.

Perfect.

 

[fearless9]

Quote from Bullz n Bearz:

I have been working pretty much 12-14 hours a day on trying to "improve' my trading skills. However, I can improve them as much as I want, if the market goes against me, the market goes against me.
................................................

please, i really encourage any honest , new et member to pm me or post in this thread for only honest discussion relating to trading. i don't want any puretick salesman, spydertrader thieves, and/ or jack hershey acid tripping trolls that talk out of their butts. i just want honest people who want to make a living off this like i do.
thanks

Hello B n B
Re: A Truth on Trading.

Should'nt this read..... Re: An opinion on Trading.

 

[Bullz n Bearz]

Quote from fearless9:

Hello B n B
Re: A Truth on Trading.

Should'nt this read..... Re: An opinion on Trading.

Not really, because I believe what I said can be said universally as well.