A trend trading question

[Rodney King]

Quote from Maverickz:

Jack I have noticed you like to reference documents and white papers on various topics and suggest them for reading but you never provide a link and I have not been able to find any of them. Could you please start posting links?

His publications are available in Umberto Eco's library. Or maybe Jorge Luis Borges's.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from baro-san:

This seems very much like the coin flip probability question. It doesn't matter how many times you got head or tail in a row. The probability for the next throw to be either is always 50%.

Applying it to your described system, it seems that as long as you don't know why your last breakout failed or not, your probability that the next breakout will do the same or not is still 50%.

===============
Baro;
No telling how much profit has been made simply applying coin flip probability to trading/investing. Probability study has no doubt made much more money than all the internet predictions perhaps ever made-LOL

And frankly many people with silver coins do not flip them;
John Bollinger said stocks are like sheep, they travel in herds[groups, or sectors]

Also there is a certain %% of people who do believe in trends...[Believe comes from an old english word meaning ''live by'']

 

[Maverickz]

Quote from murray t turtle:

===============
Baro;
No telling how much profit has been made simply applying coin flip probability to trading/investing. Probability study has no doubt made much more money than all the internet predictions perhaps ever made-LOL

So true. Then again if you know how to manage potential risk with potential reward you really only have to be right about 1/3 of the time. I would take a 50/50 bet all day long if I could get odds so that if I won I got $3 and if I lost I only lost $1.