A trading secret only some will understand...

I have empathy for rangetrader. I also have empathy for those that posted in this thread.

Time and timing are two different things.

Using time does not work.

To have perfect timing, you must replace time with something else.

Reason through the definition of a trend. Observe you have a beginning and an end.

The third, always present, element allows you to reason out the replacement for time and, at the same time, having the replacement for time, you gain perfect timing.

It is the same problem you all have with not knowing the difference detween a retrace and a reversal.

By the time you acquire these factoids, you have a minimum of five elements of a trend.

What is their common characteristic that allows you to replace time?

A person here asked about tips and included two other factoids. For all good tips the price and timing are: at retirement. This person should always keep a copy of the top 15 that do over 250% a year for the next three years.
 
Time rules work just fine for me... Nailed it on the ES today. Were running out of time to pull off the lows though hourly. Starting to look like another big capitulation is coming soon.

Volatility has picked up too much for volume charting so I switched back to time until the next major low volatility bull market.

Patterns on time charts become so damn reliable on the ES during higher volatility it's ridiculous...

Switching back to vol charts once we re-enter a stable rally again.
 

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What up range trader.

I fully agree with you. I use a time expiration in the forex market as well. I use it to cut losers short.

If a trade is going against you time definitely is not your friend.

In the stock market I also have a time expiration. If the move hasn't been made there's always a better setup waiting for you somewhere.

I like to say if I am trying to go up in an elevator and it's not moving I am going to get out and find one that's going up.

May sound stupid to some but makes sense to me.

Not sure why some here don't get it! Truly a great secret. Maybe your an outside the box thinker and some people are stuck inside.

Nice post!
 
See what I mean about us running out of time on the hourly...

Running out of time. ;) Everyone over the last couple days has seen the bullish divergence on RSI, MACD, etc... It doesn't bloody matter what system people were using... They saw the buy signals. This market has at most one more day to attempt to pull it together before it corrects again. The people that bought into this setup are going to start getting scared because too much time is passing and the market isn't rising enough.

Ill be preparing to buy buy buy again around 1324... Either that or an established uptrend with strong internals.
 

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As for my very long term outlook... I don't expect a major bull market run for around 100 days. About the only thing that would turn me long term bullish before then is for the market to drop down to around 1250. We could get some decent rallies if we get a major drop.

But, I'm expecting this slow bear grind into November with a couple small rallies. Oddly enough the cycles are aligned perfectly for another big rally after elections in November.

Notice, all I talk about are rallies... LoL! Rallies are the absolutely easiest most predictable markets. There is always support and buyers... The market retraces predictably. Volume charts work wonderfully.

Selloffs are just freaking chaotic and a headache to do short term short trading in especially with the intermittent random bear squeezes where the market suddenly shoots up 15-20 points or more. That doesn't happen to bulls during rallies.

Some of the best rallies are also during bear markets too... I LOVE ME A GOOD RALLY! lol... I discovered a while ago that I am like 3x better at long trading than short trading. It's just very predictable where buyers are going to come in... As the one trader once told me. Comparing short trading to long trading is like comparing apples to oranges. Need a totally different mindset...
 

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Quote from RangeTrader:

As for my very long term outlook... I don't expect a major bull market run for around 100 days. About the only thing that would turn me long term bullish before then is for the market to drop down to around 1250. We could get some decent rallies if we get a major drop.

But, I'm expecting this slow bear grind into November with a couple small rallies. Oddly enough the cycles are aligned perfectly for another big rally after elections in November.

Notice, all I talk about are rallies... LoL! Rallies are the absolutely easiest most predictable markets. There is always support and buyers... The market retraces predictably. Volume charts work wonderfully.

Selloffs are just freaking chaotic and a headache to do short term short trading in especially with the intermittent random bear squeezes where the market suddenly shoots up 15-20 points or more. That doesn't happen to bulls during rallies.

Some of the best rallies are also during bear markets too... I LOVE ME A GOOD RALLY! lol... I discovered a while ago that I am like 3x better at long trading than short trading. It's just very predictable where buyers are going to come in... As the one trader once told me. Comparing short trading to long trading is like comparing apples to oranges. Need a totally different mindset...
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I feel yah, But you no what they say about the market when it falls. It falls three times faster then it rises.

I love me a good short! Ha Ha!
 
Yes, very true... But that also makes those short trades three times harder to catch than long trades. Timing a short trade is never easy. Timing a long trade accurately is generally a piece of cake in my experience.

Quote from Mr Super Trader:

I feel yah, But you no what they say about the market when it falls. It falls three times faster then it rises.

I love me a good short! Ha Ha!
More...
 
FWIW, time is indeed the key - but not if you only use linear time.

I can't see any difference in long and short opportunities. I like shorts because when the party is over they move fastest, but I have no trading preference.
 
Quote from RangeTrader:

Yes, very true... But that also makes those short trades three times harder to catch than long trades.
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Yep that's why if i do catch a good short i get out fast. Don't want to get squeezed. Especially in a bull market.

Lots of longs put there stops bellow previous support levels. This is where you set your limit sell orders. You get a fast pop and get out before the longs see a good cost to dollar average trade and also before other shorts cover. You got to be one step ahead of the herd.

basically a sell off break down.
 
The definition of bull vs bear market is kind of a tricky issue of "context".

To someone trading over years... Were in the 3rd year of a bull market. To someone trading over months were entering a sideways and potentially short term bear market. To someone trading over weeks or days were definitely in a bear move. Lower highs, lower lows.

I prefer trading bull moves on the 5-15 minute within a hourly/daily rally. Or... If using vol charts... I like trading longs with charts in the 2-6kv range within a rally on the 60-100kv charts.

Even though I love the 2000-6000vol ES and it's TF equivalents... Always gotta keep my eyes on the bigger picture technicals, because when they turn... They override everything in the lower charts.

I'm a smart bull. I just step away when I see the bears a coming and wait patiently till they have had their way. :D
 
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