A Tidbit from Dave Rosenberg on Inflation

[426653478]

what is the incentive behind deflation, who wins who loses? what about in the case of inflation?

I think if we can answer those questions we will know the if there will be inflation or deflation, the need is the cause and so the result

 

[426653478]

Quote from PragmaticIdeals:

You do realize he means $10,000 right?

That's how they write it in foreign countries...

ya it's funny, he's probably saved 10K hoping to buy a BMW with it

oh and

 

[makloda]

Quote from Debaser82:

You earn credibility when you make calls 5 to 10 years in advance that have proven to be extraordinary in forcasting what the future holds.

Like this article by Marc Faber from 2001:

Or this one, from November 2002 (http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2002/Faber.html):

At the very best, you can hope for a trading range of say Dow Jones of 8,000 and maybe 11,000. For the S&P, maybe around maybe 800 and 1100. In my opinion, it will eventually go down much lower.

At the time the S&P was right at 900, a few months from the 2003 rally that would take it up 72% from the time Dr. Dumbass made his amazing call.

Not having a public track record that "remembers" your wrong market calls can be very convenient.

 

[Kassz007]

In order for inflation to kick in, the increased money supply has to CIRCULATE throughout the economy. Only time will tell how quickly this will happen. I don't think it's realistic to expect the stimulus package and fed funds to be circulating throughout the economy this quickly. My personal expectation is we start seeing inflation creep up in mid to late Q3. I don't see hyperinflation as I believe the fed will be able to control it when the time comes, and I don't even necessarily see the ideal 2% inflation in Q3. I don't expect deflation, but it will all depend on how quickly the increased money supply circulates throughout the economy.

 

[Eight]

My question remains unapproached by anybody on ET.. could inflation hit so suddenly that the FED could not reduce liquidity fast enough to forestall a runaway by the dollar?

 

[Debaser82]

Quote from makloda:

Or this one, from November 2002 (http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2002/Faber.html):

At the time the S&P was right at 900, a few months from the 2003 rally that would take it up 72% from the time Dr. Dumbass made his amazing call.

Not having a public track record that "remembers" your wrong market calls can be very convenient.

A 72% gain in the S&P in dollars.

USD to EUR november 02: 1.05

USD to EUR june 07: 0.74


So you see there is the optical illusion of rising stockmarkets when the point could be made it is simply pure inflation.

He said it could go to 1100 so really in euro's he only missed out perhaps a 20% gain over a 5 years course?

Not that big of a deal I would say.

Anyway, I guess Dave Rosenberg, 'the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch & Co' his public track record is indeed there for everyone to see that I will admit.

 

[zdreg]

Quote from makloda:

Sorry to disappoint you, but the above makes too much sense to garner much attention on ET. Would you instead have posted some ridiculous hyperinflation paranoia tidbits from Peter Schiff or Marc Faber you'd have 50 replies within the hour

it makes about as much sense as suggesting that hedge funds outperform buy and hold strategies for tax paying entities

the fed is acting like a 3rd world bank. a widened mandate will further make the bank an arm of the US congress and president..
it is a matter of time be fore inflation doubles +

 

[zdreg]

Quote from Eight:

My question remains unapproached by anybody on ET.. could inflation hit so suddenly that the FED could not reduce liquidity fast enough to forestall a runaway by the dollar?

moves can be parabolic. the current black hole for $US disappears. the FED is not independent of congress and the US president. they will talk and do nothing. it will be behavior comparable to 3rd world countries who are led by left wingers.

 

[piezoe]

I pay more attention to reality than rhetoric. Has anyone here been grocery shopping lately? Have a look at shadowstats.com if you interested in what the current inflation rate is.

 

[gigsup]

Yeah, and prices are up. no deflation yet. I will be waiting.

Another question: the fed has little or no control over long-

bond rates. The monetization the US faces is frightening,

what will those rates be several years down the road?

1981 deja-vu, except this time we are not a creditor nation

but a bankrupt debtor nation.