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A Strange Feeling Pt 2
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
Michael this from a pretty smart trading outfit-
my pattern work argues that while the recovery from Friday's plunge likely has unfinished business on the upside, so too do I think that the July decline likely has " another shoe to drop" of its own at some point in the hours/days ahead...
I like that " another shoe " line that's how I feel that's the " strange Feeling " I think, it's just the size and make of the shoe I can't figure out... Won't it be funny if it's the old Yen Carry Trade that takes us out after all this housing pub!~ stoney
my pattern work argues that while the recovery from Friday's plunge likely has unfinished business on the upside, so too do I think that the July decline likely has " another shoe to drop" of its own at some point in the hours/days ahead...
I like that " another shoe " line that's how I feel that's the " strange Feeling " I think, it's just the size and make of the shoe I can't figure out... Won't it be funny if it's the old Yen Carry Trade that takes us out after all this housing pub!~ stoney
Well we are up a bit, we should be happy.... but
the up/down vol on Nasdaq just 7 to 6 positive. Adv/dec just 3 to 2 positive. NYSE much better though...
It just feels unstable let's see how the afternoon plays out... ~ stoney
the up/down vol on Nasdaq just 7 to 6 positive. Adv/dec just 3 to 2 positive. NYSE much better though...
It just feels unstable let's see how the afternoon plays out... ~ stoney
It's playing out bad folks it's playing out bad.
NDX now 27 points off the morning high!
Lets just let that sink in. LOWER I'm afraid it's all pointing us lower AHM is halted bankrupt I'm sure
wouldn't you know a tipster told me about stock $10 ago and I didn't listen... My gums are starting to bleed.
NDX now 27 points off the morning high!
Lets just let that sink in. LOWER I'm afraid it's all pointing us lower AHM is halted bankrupt I'm sure
wouldn't you know a tipster told me about stock $10 ago and I didn't listen... My gums are starting to bleed.
Here is the time we take out the lows and that would NORMALLY ignite a big rally-- that is if we were still in a bull market.... They showed a S&P to cash chart on TV that I really didn't understand it indicated that we have officially changed trend. Not just correcting. Serious stuff. With these highflying commodity plays and overextended emerging markets this has a cyclical bear feel to it and indeed tech is not being spared.
Well Mr MichaelScott what say thee now? If thy Bull hath been slain upon thy mantle so be the irony of you finally being so bullish.
~stoney NFUA
(nervous for us all)
Well Mr MichaelScott what say thee now? If thy Bull hath been slain upon thy mantle so be the irony of you finally being so bullish.
~stoney NFUA
(nervous for us all)
I believe the law in certain states is that homeowners can walk away from their homes without having to be further responsible for it...meaning that the mortgage companies can only throw a blackmark on their credit report and thats about it. That blackmark will then last for 7 years.
So a person who bought a home for a million dollars in 2006 (that was only 300k back in 2002) will save money by walking away from their home. The bottom to the market will probably take another 3-4 years and if they walk away right now then they can save money by renting. In 2010-2011 when the foreclosure is all but a memory they buy at the low again and refinance once the market starts appreciating again.
The time frame and depth for the above process to take place is an unknown factor. Will they all walk away all at once next week, next year, 2 years??? Will only a few walk or will it be large crowds? Will it be the slow trickle of walkouts?
I remember a few months back many hedge funds and large brokers, like GS, buying subprime portfolios thinking they got a deal. These subprime time bombs where the owners can walk away at anytime is ticking away, everyday. The question is if then when and then finally how hard...
So a person who bought a home for a million dollars in 2006 (that was only 300k back in 2002) will save money by walking away from their home. The bottom to the market will probably take another 3-4 years and if they walk away right now then they can save money by renting. In 2010-2011 when the foreclosure is all but a memory they buy at the low again and refinance once the market starts appreciating again.
The time frame and depth for the above process to take place is an unknown factor. Will they all walk away all at once next week, next year, 2 years??? Will only a few walk or will it be large crowds? Will it be the slow trickle of walkouts?
I remember a few months back many hedge funds and large brokers, like GS, buying subprime portfolios thinking they got a deal. These subprime time bombs where the owners can walk away at anytime is ticking away, everyday. The question is if then when and then finally how hard...
What is taking place is called a macro move in value...
The IWN started at about 32 in 2003 and reached its high at about 85 in April. So we have a target for the IWN around 55-60.
The IWO on the other hand has completed its 7 year cup and has established a resistance above 80. I would say the target lies about 50 points up.
I would go ultrashort value 2000, but ultralong growth 2000.
The IWN started at about 32 in 2003 and reached its high at about 85 in April. So we have a target for the IWN around 55-60.
The IWO on the other hand has completed its 7 year cup and has established a resistance above 80. I would say the target lies about 50 points up.
I would go ultrashort value 2000, but ultralong growth 2000.
GOOD MOURNING FELLOW HEATHENS!
Well it's the big day! The U.K.'s FTSE 100 retreated 2%, while France's CAC 40 slid 2.3%. Germany's DAX slipped 2.1%.
Taiwan's Taiex Index plunged 4.3%, the biggest drop in the region. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 3.3%, the most since Sept. 17, 2001. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 2.2% to 16,870.98 while the Topix index lost 2.2%.
The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex suffered another major crash at noon today as it lost 569 points to trade below 15,000 level.....
I'd like to take a small step back and pat myself on the shoulder about one thing. When ALL YOU HEARD FROM EVERYONE was invest overseas invest overseas emerging markets, BRIC etc. What was I shouting? - " NO! ".
The only problem was my convoluted thesis that our markets would be stable in the face of their retreats. It's been just the opposite we have been unstable tipping them.
How did my thinking get so screwed up? Well this emphasis on corporate profits they have never been fatter indeed froze me in the US market to an extent and I made a couple major thinking mistakes. (1) underestimating the flight to quality scenario which drove bond yields DOWN when I thought they would spike up on this borrowing mess. (2) I underestimated the need to panic, rush to the door mentality of the flighty investor.
One thing for sure is this dream that the rest of the world is great and the US can suck. That we can no longer be the growth engine of the world - that messy, dirty, China has taken over everything with their lack of government and financial controls not to mention safety issues and child internment-- That this was all going to be the new way and the US could do nothing but export brain power and make nothing themselves... that this was all the new paradigm... Has proven to be BS!
So here we go into the abyss. My coal miners hat is on. IOMI had great news on their traveler's diarrhea drug that could be a play today on a pullback or I may just ask for a test vial because I think I feel a little loose anyway...
~ stoney
Well it's the big day! The U.K.'s FTSE 100 retreated 2%, while France's CAC 40 slid 2.3%. Germany's DAX slipped 2.1%.
Taiwan's Taiex Index plunged 4.3%, the biggest drop in the region. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 3.3%, the most since Sept. 17, 2001. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 2.2% to 16,870.98 while the Topix index lost 2.2%.
The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex suffered another major crash at noon today as it lost 569 points to trade below 15,000 level.....
I'd like to take a small step back and pat myself on the shoulder about one thing. When ALL YOU HEARD FROM EVERYONE was invest overseas invest overseas emerging markets, BRIC etc. What was I shouting? - " NO! ".
The only problem was my convoluted thesis that our markets would be stable in the face of their retreats. It's been just the opposite we have been unstable tipping them.
How did my thinking get so screwed up? Well this emphasis on corporate profits they have never been fatter indeed froze me in the US market to an extent and I made a couple major thinking mistakes. (1) underestimating the flight to quality scenario which drove bond yields DOWN when I thought they would spike up on this borrowing mess. (2) I underestimated the need to panic, rush to the door mentality of the flighty investor.
One thing for sure is this dream that the rest of the world is great and the US can suck. That we can no longer be the growth engine of the world - that messy, dirty, China has taken over everything with their lack of government and financial controls not to mention safety issues and child internment-- That this was all going to be the new way and the US could do nothing but export brain power and make nothing themselves... that this was all the new paradigm... Has proven to be BS!
So here we go into the abyss. My coal miners hat is on. IOMI had great news on their traveler's diarrhea drug that could be a play today on a pullback or I may just ask for a test vial because I think I feel a little loose anyway...
~ stoney
Dont worry Stoney. 1455 will hold. I have my fingers crossed.
Its not that the rest of the world is great, its that the US is too great. The US is fully developed, overdeveloped where as the rest of the world is just starting.
Its like why invest in Jones Soda versus Coca-Cola. Its because Jones Soda has a lot of room to grow where as Coke has saturated the marketplace.
Its not that the rest of the world is great, its that the US is too great. The US is fully developed, overdeveloped where as the rest of the world is just starting.
Its like why invest in Jones Soda versus Coca-Cola. Its because Jones Soda has a lot of room to grow where as Coke has saturated the marketplace.
Michael expounding on my Russell problem with Mr. Market. One could logically argue the S&P 500's current six percent correction off its record high will follow the same path that it did in March. Bears, on the other hand, are armed with several reasons why things may be different this time around. Aside from the all the talk of subprime lending troubles, a credit crunch, and all the other fallout that resulted, there are some less obvious technical concerns that the popular financial media has been failing to discuss. Among the biggest areas of technical trouble is the humongous drop in the small-cap arena. In just two weeks, the Russell 2000 has plummeted 9% from its all-time high. Worse is that it blew through pivotal support of its 200-day moving average without even attempting to bounce off of it for more than a few hours. When the stock market corrected in late February and early March, the Russell similarly dropped 8% before reversing, but it also held well above its 200-day MA. Whenever an index breaks below such a major level of support as the 200-day MA, it creates a lot of overhead supply that is rarely easily absorbed. The last time the Russell corrected from an uptrend and dropped below its 200-day MA was June of 2006. Upon doing so, it took more than FOUR MONTHS before the index successfully reversed and held above its 200-day MA. Another bounce in the market will only cause the Russell to run into new resistance of its 200-day MA, in turn triggering more selling.
Yesterday the NAZ 100 broke the last remaining uptrend in the market. Aside from the numerous breakdowns below the 200-day MAs, the tremendous overall volume spike that occurred in the markets on July 26 can not be ignored. Remember that volume in the NYSE that day surged to its second highest level ever! It simply cannot be denied that stocks were under intense institutional distribution at the time. As such, why would the "smart money" aggressively jump back in the markets so soon? Presently, the market lacks any significant stimulus, whether technical, economic, or geopolitical, for large funds to resume their prior levels of buying. July 26th my friends that was the tell and Stoney was just to bull headed to see it clearly for what it was... It may be Nov 26th before we put a new high in again. That's a long time to not be high. Trust me. ~ stoney
Yesterday the NAZ 100 broke the last remaining uptrend in the market. Aside from the numerous breakdowns below the 200-day MAs, the tremendous overall volume spike that occurred in the markets on July 26 can not be ignored. Remember that volume in the NYSE that day surged to its second highest level ever! It simply cannot be denied that stocks were under intense institutional distribution at the time. As such, why would the "smart money" aggressively jump back in the markets so soon? Presently, the market lacks any significant stimulus, whether technical, economic, or geopolitical, for large funds to resume their prior levels of buying. July 26th my friends that was the tell and Stoney was just to bull headed to see it clearly for what it was... It may be Nov 26th before we put a new high in again. That's a long time to not be high. Trust me. ~ stoney