A stock market or a 10-Yr Bond market?

Quote from FullyArticulate:

The Fixed Income market is important. Without cheap capital, LBOs, mergers, stock-for-debt swaps all stop happening. With higher interest rates, there's something competing for investment dollars. If you can get 6 or 7% in coupons with no risk, why take 40%+ drawdowns with the hope of making a long-term 7% in the stock market?

IMHO, inflation is the real cause of the duration shortening. The government can tinker with CPI numbers all they want (and point to "core CPI" and other such non-sensical numbers), but numbers like M3 and the GDP deflator do not lie. Fuel, Food are far more expensive than has been priced in, and are likely to get worse. (Just look at the global soy & corn markets for next year. Increased production and increased demand. At some point (soon), you can no longer increase both.)

Take a look at 2/10 or 5/10 spreads to see what's going on behind the scenes.

There's my analysis. What's yours?
More...

You really are fully articulate. Thanks for a good post actually worth reading. Cheers.
 
Quote from Surdo:

5.25% here we are!

Are the CNBC puppetheads sleeping or getting Starbucks?
More...


haha, probably looking for their party hats for dow 14k
 
Quote from S2007S:

haha, probably looking for their party hats for dow 14k
More...

Nah, they found the right hats...they went with a Pilgrim style, now they're working on color ensembles. :p
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

wtf? was there news? trying to find if any was out
More...

Yes, news is that you are worth $100k, have a 17" monitor, live with your parents, haven't sold any stock, and aren't actually a trader. Oh yeah, Jimmy in your 3rd period math class reciprocates your hot desires for companionship. :p
 
There is simply no compelling reason to sell from my analysis.

Your analysis? Really now! Oh, and by the way, in case you hadn't noticed, Stock..., there is another nice dip again today for you to buy into. :D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top