A simple price action approach
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Quote from dv4632:
Thanks.
By one ingredient, I assume you mean the channels. I'll have to get to work on the other 4. If you have the time, any insight on how I could do that would be appreciated.
There only are two ways. Get a mentor or read extensively and spend 10,000 hours experimenting. On your own it's a combination of effort and visual gifting: some have it and progress and some don't and will never see it unless someone points it out.
For example, we have scratched the surface of channels. Jack Hershey has a channel technique but because 3 major elements are missing he expends massive effort torturing PA to find the next line. It works but to a limited degree but often stops PA telling you in advance where the next reversal point is.
Sorry but I have not seen anything in print that explains how to use the power of channels to their explosive best for immediate profits. For example, on the ES either Globex or RTH control the move and without channels you can't see who is dictating the move and when they release it. If you only channel RTH you will often miss major reversals.
As far as volume is concerned there are many, many different approaches that produce vastly different results. The only one I have found to give precise signals rather than fuzzy approximations is Wyckoff. He discovered how the Smart Money draws in the Dumb Money for a transfer of wealth. There is an online school that takes about 2 yrs to complete. (I cheated and developed my own software that shortens that learning curve to 2 weeks and I out perform them.) Imo you can't get better than Wyckoff.
On Fibs, it must be horizontal time ratios and not just vertical price ratios. Fibs are pretty simple and on the net. It is the combination of time and price with volume that gives you the real move.
On Waves & Cycles, my mentor was working on a publication but died before completion not long back. As I had some creative input I am considering publishing something in honor of him in the future. To keep it simple, 5 & 3 Elliot waves will give you all you need in a bull market but in a bear it gets complicated. Elliot is all free on the net. After that read all you can on Hurst as that is the real monster. Imo don't get in deep with Elliot: if it shouts trade it and if it doesn't use other techniques. Hurst is more powerful but harder to learn and I have not seen any software that works for it so I was forced to developed my own idiot guide as I call it.
Price patterns: you can get all you need from Elliot & Magee but honestly you don't need to be fancy here. It could be reduced to 4 pages. The real trick is in drawing non traditional trend lines to catch the moves earlier so traders push your entry price.
I am taking for granted that you have a grasp of PA signals and multiple time frame analysis. Most traders who say yes have no idea how to distinguish good from poor quality set ups.
I trade with an ex hedge fund senior trader who just trades his own account now and he keeps telling me it's time to mentor some guys before, well you never know. I guess as I am getting on in years it might be a good idea to do something with what I have accumulated.
Neither have I, apparently.
I've experimented with horizontal time ratios and seen some things that piqued my interest, but haven't put any of it into practice yet.
Well, I'll say yes, but I'm still learning how to spot the good setups.
I tried the snake oils and figured out pretty quickly that most trading educators were a waste of time. I have a trader friend who is successful (and clued me in on the time ratios by the way) but he's not interested in mentoring people as the few times he tried in the past his students failed miserably. So I just try to pick up what I can from him when he's in the mood to share. Anything you want to share... I'm all ears.
To clarify: (my rules) horizontal time ratios should only be used 1) in a channel 2)in relation to the prior wave.
If you try to be clever and use any kind or horizontal (linear) timing tool it will work for a while and then crash. The reason is that cycles harmonize and then conflict altering the periodicity of the dominant cycle. That is where Hurst is the master that solves this problem.
Horizontal timing is trial and error based until you find what works and by that time the dominant cycle is usually more than 50% complete. The trader thinks they have discovered a great timing tool and makes a few winning trades only to discover the grail implodes.
Can't be bothered to read the whole thread but in case it hasn't been said before this seems pretty similar to the medianline/market geo stuff that Timothy Morge does.
Actually...it only took a few pages and then everyone else decided to chime in with their own version of a simple price action method. Some involved one or two indicators and some involved price action only (no indicators).
That's the usual theme of these types of 'simple price action' threads. The OP shows up and post his/her method and then leaves after a few pages. Everyone else gets involved...in reality you have several or more different discussions involving different methods.
That's OK as long as someone new to the thread doesn't think the methods recently discussed is the original method that was discussed by the thread starter (review Ironfist discussions involving another method he made changes too after someone mention his name in this thread).
Mark