A simple price action approach
- Thread starter metal
- Start date
ND,
Would you have taken the same trade but instead to the upside?
I am asking as I am curious how you decide which pivot points to use to draw trendlines/channels.
You can see that a similar trendline drawn previously provided a false breakout and would have stopped out, but do you just view that as part of the trading, or you wouldn't have drawn these trendlines at all?
Quote from Gubinec:
ND,
Would you have taken the same trade but instead to the upside?
I am asking as I am curious how you decide which pivot points to use to draw trendlines/channels.
You can see that a similar trendline drawn previously provided a false breakout and would have stopped out, but do you just view that as part of the trading, or you wouldn't have drawn these trendlines at all?
I can hardly see the chart you posted, but it looks like I would've been taking pullback long entries for trend continuation, drawing a channel off the high and first lower high (which is your first line drawn), going long off touches to the lower channel line as long as the pivot low of that last push up remained intact as support, meaning the down channel is simply a bull flag formation. You referred to that channel as a downtrend, but until the previous uptrend is technically violated in this time frame, it's a pullback channel, or flag.
On the long that finally broke the channel upside I would've taken my profits when the previous R level (that first LH that occurred earlier) failed to break, and then would've been looking for possible short entries.
The area where price broke out nicely upside is off a 1-2-3 reversal setup. Price prints a low in a zone where much earlier price resistance was established. There's a very small bounce and a restest of that low. If price breaks the R of the small bounce, it's a long trigger. I often enter on a break of the pullback bar leading to the retest of the low. I cheat a little on the entry to get a better price, but those setups are very reliable.
If I put on a trade at a breakout level and get stopped out on a false breakout, it's no problem because the loss is small and fbo's trigger nice reversals that easily pay for the small loss. By trading all setups, knowing that eventually you'll get nailed for the loss on a failure because all trending moves reverse at some point, you keep the overall odds in your favor. If you start picking and choosing from among your setups, you dilute your edge. Sometimes the best moves come out of an ugly-looking right edge.
For example, that 1-2-3 reversal setup doesn't look like a bull's wet dream at the right edge, but once you've seen the result of this setup enough times, you can hardly wait for your position to get triggered.
Beautiful channel line touch, entry triggered by wyckoffian principles. Connect the two highs (11:28 and 12:35). Draw the parallel and connect it to the only low point (12:22). When the trigger was there, took the trade. Mismanaged it horribly for a scratch, though target was .35 near opposite side of the channel.
LOL
Oh my such talk ! I'm pretty sure Brooks's didn't use that phrase in his book
Had one trade (long) on the euro as noted. I didn't hold until the target was made - I exited when it looked like price was reversing at the previous double top. I actually almost skipped the trade because of that double top.
I thought about going long just before 8:00. When price broke out above the upper rail around 7:00 I drew in a steeper up channel in case price was really going to take off. When price came to the lower rail of that new channel it was also at a potential R becomes S level from the triple tops above 1.4380. But I didn't take the long due to the last top being a double top.
So both trades were coming after double tops, and I got lucky and picked the one that worked and skipped the one that didn't. It could just have easily been the other way around. At some point I'll have to decide whether a double-top on the prior high is reason to skip a long entry.
I thought about going long just before 8:00. When price broke out above the upper rail around 7:00 I drew in a steeper up channel in case price was really going to take off. When price came to the lower rail of that new channel it was also at a potential R becomes S level from the triple tops above 1.4380. But I didn't take the long due to the last top being a double top.
So both trades were coming after double tops, and I got lucky and picked the one that worked and skipped the one that didn't. It could just have easily been the other way around. At some point I'll have to decide whether a double-top on the prior high is reason to skip a long entry.
