A simple price action approach

Quote from macattack:

I need some help.
Here's a typical trading series for me.
Down 47 points.

How do I avoid this?
They look like decent entries to me; if I didn't take one of them it would be the one that takes off for 100 points. I've got plenty of screen time, but it still feels very random to me.

If I take what looks like a good entry I get stopped. If I avoid an entry because it doesn't look quite right it goes 100 points without me.

Some days I can do pretty good, but more often than not I work myself into a 47 point deficit just like this example shows. Not a fun way to start the day.

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Then why do you need that blue WMA:confused: :confused:
 
I don't need that WMA. It's just on there.

How do you get to the next level where you know not to enter where I entered?

With the entire chart there it's easier to see, but going bar by bar where you can't see the future the entries seemed ok to me at the time.

Please don't anyone say more screen time. I'd be embarrassed to say how much screen time I have................yet I still suck. :(

Price finally ends up shooting out of the chop, but by then who knows how much I'd be down. This happens to me often. Ugh !!!!
 
Quote from macattack:

I don't need that WMA. It's just on there.

How do you get to the next level where you know not to enter where I entered?

With the entire chart there it's easier to see, but going bar by bar where you can't see the future the entries seemed ok to me at the time.

Please don't anyone say more screen time. I'd be embarrassed to say how much screen time I have................yet I still suck. :(

Price finally ends up shooting out of the chop, but by then who knows how much I'd be down. This happens to me often. Ugh !!!!
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You don`t need that WMA that provides such great entry points to you.Ok..

You buy exactly where you should sell.
 
Quote from macattack:

I'll check that out thanks.
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One thing I have noticed (at least with my own stats) is that the 7:00 hour tends to be the hardest hour to trade for me on the CL. There is usually a decent trade around 7:05 PST and one just before or at 8:00 PST, but I've found the hour in between to be choppier than most. Do some backtesting and see if you find the same!
 
Quote from macattack:

I need some help.
Here's a typical trading series for me.
Down 47 points.

How do I avoid this?
They look like decent entries to me; if I didn't take one of them it would be the one that takes off for 100 points. I've got plenty of screen time, but it still feels very random to me.

If I take what looks like a good entry I get stopped. If I avoid an entry because it doesn't look quite right it goes 100 points without me.

Some days I can do pretty good, but more often than not I work myself into a 47 point deficit just like this example shows. Not a fun way to start the day.

9i8cd5.jpg
More...




You'll be relieved to know your PA reading and stop placement is very poor so there is a lot of scope for big improvements in your trading. The moves against you are not a mystery but understanding PA needs a very thorough treatment and re. your following post, it does no harm to ask. It is just too big a subject to deal with here and is already well covered elsewhere (in ND's Journal as an ex.) so apologies for not attempting it now.

You can trade with really tight stops and after a market has had two pushes you need to make them extra tight rather than expecting the same enthusiasm again.

HA candles will miss a lot of PA signals so I would not use them - they have specific signals but lag normal PA signals in many cases as it is an attempt to smooth the market. HA signals are not the same as normal PA signals.

I have made a few in depth posts way back on PA signals and volume signals but you will have to search. ND's is a complete offering and would be the place to start.

Using channels and trend lines can allow you to get good entries while being inexperienced in PA reading so there is a big bonus there, but the best idea is to use both together as your skill set develops.

You are asking the right questions with the right attitude to improve and I wish you all the very best of success.

See attached
 

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Yeah, I noticed those same two orange trendlines as Xpurt.

What I would say in both of those situations is that you have a lower high in place, so a trend reversal is a possibility. You can still trade long but you've got to be aware of the resistance overhead. You can either sell at resistance, or wait and see if it breaks through.

In the first case, price passed through with no problems. In the second case it was rejected. If you were still holding your long entry on the second one, maybe when the heikin ashi bar turned red it was time to get out. In both cases that is potential resistance after a failure to make a new high so must be respected.

Disclaimer: I'm still sim trading as I can't seem to get over the hump into consistent profitability, so maybe I shouldn't be giving advice. But I'm not terrible either, and I would've picked up on those two orange lines in real-time so figured I'd mention them. I'm not so good with channels yet so will leave that one alone. Good luck.
 
NoDoji,
considering that a high number of traders using different ways to 'interpret' price action or trendlines and how to trade them will virtually guarantee that some of them will be winners over a certain period of time, what kind of evidence do you have that this is a sound method to use for the long-run instead of short-term luck?

By that I mean statistical evidence that trendfollowing works in intraday data
 
Quote from macattack:

How do I avoid this?
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Just my thoughts on your chart. 300V is a very small time frame and while I use a 25 tick I do so only to time entries, my main charts for CL is a 5m, also a 1m.

I would drop the MAs, especially since they're based on small timeframe HA candles. I would also drop the HA candles but to each his or her own.
 

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