Quote from wrbtrader:
First of all, I don't like it when discretionary traders (those not using automation or mechanical trading systems) give the impression or state that their profits is exclusive via their trade method alone and everything else is none existent (not needed). Hopefully, that's not what you interpret from NoDoji.
With that said, everybody has some sort'uv short-term luck or short-term unlucky. Therefore, one evidence (not statistical) would be long-term profits. Simply, NoDoji will know for sure in about 10 years from now that it wasn't short-term luck if still profitable.
As for statistical evidence, any consistently profitable discretionary trader (not using an automation system) must know that profits aren't exclusive via the trade method alone. The following are very important in determining short-term profitability or long term proftitability...a discretionary trader's trading plan:
* Market experience
* Discipline
* Money management
* Position size management
* Proper capitalization
* Stress management
* Proper broker platform
* Proper trade workstation
* Proper at home trade environment (retail traders)
* Trade Method with edge
My point is that your question...the way it's stated...implies that the trade method is the "only" variable that determines profitability. Yet, I do understand if your question was stated as such if NoDoji or others prior have implied the other variables I've listed above have "no impact" on their trading results.
Regardless, intentionally being redundant, its still an incorrect assumption to believe discretionary traders profitability is determine via the trade method alone in light of the above listed other critical variables (together it's called a trading plan) to the equation that also determines profitability...critical variables that on any given trading day will have more impact on trading results than the trade method itself.
Therefore, if you need statistical evidence, you're approaching this the wrong way considering in theory nobody can provide statistical evidence involving many of the above key variables in a trader's trading plan except for a few variables.
If you don't understand or think it's something to debate...here's a pizza analogy. To properly test (look for evidence) about a trader's profitability...it's flaw testing/research to only taste the sauce to determine how good a pizza will taste while ignoring the other ingredients in that pizza. Simply, to test or look for evidence involving a profitable discretionary trader...you must eat the pizza with all it's ingredients (the entire trading plan as a whole working together) and not one ingredient alone.
In contrast, if NoDoji was using an automation system, mechanical system (computer codes)...that's when you can ask for statistical evidence and ignore (in theory) all those other key variables I mentioned.
Mark
Most of the things you mentioned are not edges, they are things that enable you take advantage of an edge. A true edge is a way to extract excess profits from the financial markets, having a good broker, solid discipline, etc. Tells you NOTHING about when you will buy and sell and therefore beat other market participants
Take blackjack for instance, an edge is a counting strategy, having discipline will help you take advantage of the edge by avoiding mistakes, having a large bankroll enables you to survive the swings, choosing weak casinos will help you by enabling you to count but the single most important factor if the fact that you can count cards, all that other stuff wont make you money if you dont have that.
But I tried it after the retest of the upper line. I was targeting the lower limit but it never got there. Had 40 ticks or so at the 1:45ish low but then it came back and stopped me at breakeven.