A sense the housing market has bottomed.
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
Area Construction Picking Up: Number of Building Permits Issued in Fresno and Madera Counties Climbs in February.
Source: The Fresno Bee
Publication date: March 29, 2007
By Sanford Nax, The Fresno Bee, Calif.
Mar. 29--Figures released Wednesday confirm what home builders in the Fresno area already have been saying: Construction has picked up in recent weeks.
Whether that trend continues remains to be seen, but in February, at least, the number of building permits issued to home builders in Fresno and Madera counties climbed.
"Hopefully this will hold and show our predictions to be accurate, that there will be a continual, albeit slow, but continual rise in housing starts," said Michael Prandini, chief executive of the Building Industry Association of the San Joaquin Valley.
Permits increased 18% from January to February in Fresno County and helped contribute to a 4.5% boost for the first two months of the year. In Madera County, permits edged up 1.9% in February. The area of Hanford/Corcoran saw a 63.4% increase that month.
Those upward numbers ran contrary to those for the state as a whole, where the number of building permits issued to builders of single-family houses fell 8.5% in February. Sacramento and San Jose were the only other major metropolitan areas to report gains.
Association chief economist Alan Nevin attributed the decline to builders scaling back production to concentrate on selling finished houses that were unsold. "The voiding of unsold inventory continues unabated in California, as evidenced by the major decline in permits in the month of February," he said.
Visalia was among those regions that experienced a decline. Permits fell almost 34% there, to 54 from 110.
Los Angeles fell 23.5%, Bakersfield tumbled almost 22%, Riverside/San Bernardino slid 14.1%, and San Diego declined 2%.
Nevin said builders are selling excess inventory rapidly and project a return to normalcy next quarter.
The reporter can be reached at snax@fresnobee.com or (559) 441-6495.
-----
Copyright (c) 2007, The Fresno Bee, Calif.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.
For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.
Source: The Fresno Bee
Publication date: March 29, 2007
By Sanford Nax, The Fresno Bee, Calif.
Mar. 29--Figures released Wednesday confirm what home builders in the Fresno area already have been saying: Construction has picked up in recent weeks.
Whether that trend continues remains to be seen, but in February, at least, the number of building permits issued to home builders in Fresno and Madera counties climbed.
"Hopefully this will hold and show our predictions to be accurate, that there will be a continual, albeit slow, but continual rise in housing starts," said Michael Prandini, chief executive of the Building Industry Association of the San Joaquin Valley.
Permits increased 18% from January to February in Fresno County and helped contribute to a 4.5% boost for the first two months of the year. In Madera County, permits edged up 1.9% in February. The area of Hanford/Corcoran saw a 63.4% increase that month.
Those upward numbers ran contrary to those for the state as a whole, where the number of building permits issued to builders of single-family houses fell 8.5% in February. Sacramento and San Jose were the only other major metropolitan areas to report gains.
Association chief economist Alan Nevin attributed the decline to builders scaling back production to concentrate on selling finished houses that were unsold. "The voiding of unsold inventory continues unabated in California, as evidenced by the major decline in permits in the month of February," he said.
Visalia was among those regions that experienced a decline. Permits fell almost 34% there, to 54 from 110.
Los Angeles fell 23.5%, Bakersfield tumbled almost 22%, Riverside/San Bernardino slid 14.1%, and San Diego declined 2%.
Nevin said builders are selling excess inventory rapidly and project a return to normalcy next quarter.
The reporter can be reached at snax@fresnobee.com or (559) 441-6495.
-----
Copyright (c) 2007, The Fresno Bee, Calif.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.
For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.
Employment is good and rates are still low. Make up your own mind. By the time the media reports it, it is typically too late.
SM
The irony is that this article is about Fresno! I believe Fresno was once the murder capital of the world, or at least the country. That place is a major shithole. Not sure the article mentioned YoY, but only month-over-month which is suspect as usual.
There must be a reason for this...especially the fact that it's Fresno. I know anomalies happen...but that is like turning to the New Zealand army to defend our borders or Bush to run our country....oops!
There must be a reason for this...especially the fact that it's Fresno. I know anomalies happen...but that is like turning to the New Zealand army to defend our borders or Bush to run our country....oops!
Home Foreclosures Hit All-Time High
By Michelle Laczkoski
Boston, Mass. - March 28, 2007 - Home foreclosures in Massachusetts hit an all-time high for the second consecutive month, according to the web site ForeclosuresMass.com.
The new report shows an 85 percent increase in foreclosures compared to the same period last year.
The site's president, Jeremy Shapiro says there is a "perfect storm" of factors contributing to the dramatic increase, including the high number of homeowners struggling to pay controversial sub-prime loans, high heating costs and a weakening local housing market.
The month of February was the fifth straight month with over 2,000 foreclosures in the state, averaging 111 foreclosures per business day.
Currently, the Massachusetts Legislature is considering a bill that would require mortgage lenders go through the courts when trying to foreclose on homes.
By Michelle Laczkoski
Boston, Mass. - March 28, 2007 - Home foreclosures in Massachusetts hit an all-time high for the second consecutive month, according to the web site ForeclosuresMass.com.
The new report shows an 85 percent increase in foreclosures compared to the same period last year.
The site's president, Jeremy Shapiro says there is a "perfect storm" of factors contributing to the dramatic increase, including the high number of homeowners struggling to pay controversial sub-prime loans, high heating costs and a weakening local housing market.
The month of February was the fifth straight month with over 2,000 foreclosures in the state, averaging 111 foreclosures per business day.
Currently, the Massachusetts Legislature is considering a bill that would require mortgage lenders go through the courts when trying to foreclose on homes.
Even foreclosures are a tough sell
Published April 1, 2007
If home ownership is the American dream, the scene that plays out every week in Room 385 of the Broward County Courthouse is the American nightmare.
"Case No. 06-19776," intoned the auctioneer, a foreclosure clerk named Barbara Pendergrass.
Near the back, Earl Lawrence leafed through his thick black binder and looked up the property, a small townhouse in Tamarac.
His research sheet told the story: Bought for $65,500 in September 2000, a foreclosure judgment for debts totaling $188,000 last December.
"They borrowed themselves right out of a home," said Lawrence, 46, of Hollywood, a real estate investor who has been coming to the public auctions for 25 years.
Florida has more foreclosures in the pipeline than any other state, 19,144 in February, according to RealtyTrac, a national firm that tracks the numbers.
Much of the coming misery will be concentrated in South Florida, where homeowners have been socked by high prices, high property taxes, soaring insurance premiums and gimmick mortgages that have blown up in their faces.
The crowd of about 50 in the cramped room was mixed with lawyers, lenders, savvy old pros and curious newcomers eager to pounce on others' misfortunes.
The auctions are held every Wednesday and Thursday at 11 a.m.
Those losing homes usually don't show up. But their broken dreams are always here.
There were no bids on the Tamarac townhouse Thursday, apart from the minimum $100 that the foreclosing bank made to formally seize the property.
The same thing happened with most of the 88 properties up for auction last week.
The real estate market has become so uncertain, and the debts racked up on these properties so high, even the vultures aren't nibbling.
"Would you buy a property for $420,000 if you could only sell it for $400,000?" said Adnan Kabbara, 55, of Weston, a developer and contractor who has bought homes at auction for four years.
Properties that would have attracted a bidding war a year or two ago, when the real estate market was soaring, now stay with the lenders. The banks sell them through major national real estate firms, more frequently at a loss.
"The party's over," said Lawrence.
It's over for homeowners who used their homes as ATM machines, got maxed out on home equity loans and refinancing, and now have nowhere to turn. It's over for lenders who gave credit to almost anybody, offering zero-down, adjustable-rate mortgages to risky borrowers. And it's over for the investors who thought they could make an easy killing on real estate.
You'd think with more foreclosures, there'd be more opportunities for the opportunists. But the auctions have become ultra-conservative, with only a handful of properties triggering bids.
When a property does get action, a high-stakes poker game erupts.
"There's an enormous amount of competition," said Lawrence. "There are so many people trying to get the few viable properties, they get bid up to the point of razor-thin margins."
In the not-so-distant days of the roaring real estate market, even sloppy speculators who didn't do their homework could get away with mistakes. All they had to do was wait six months and they'd still make a profit.
No more. Now a slumping market means the costs and potential hang-ups of buying a foreclosed home could lead to losses.
"It's a risky business," said Kabbara.
On Thursday, one investor almost made a costly mistake. He bid $406,000 for a waterfront mansion in Lighthouse Point. He didn't realize the $402,132 foreclosure judgment was a second mortgage, and that there was also a first mortgage of $938,000 about to foreclose.
"He thought he was going to get a $1 million home for $400,000," said Dominic Abreu, attorney for the lender.
Before the man paid nearly $27,000 in deposits and fees to the court clerk, Abreu asked him if he was aware of the first mortgage.
"His jaw almost hit the ground," Abreu said.
The man scurried out before paying, scuttling the deal.
Bidders are responsible for doing title searches, which sometimes reveal other mortgages, liens or fines on the property. They also have to do legwork to see if the properties have hurricane, mold or fire damage, more difficult since they have no right to enter the property.
It's akin to buying a car without being allowed to open the door, never mind taking it for a test drive.
But with more loans and homes skidding off the rails, the crowd in Room 385 isn't going to thin anytime soon.
As the auctioneer worked through the stack of folders on Thursday, investor John Derynda groaned that he should have brought lunch.
"Two months from now," he said, "it's only going to be worse."
Published April 1, 2007
If home ownership is the American dream, the scene that plays out every week in Room 385 of the Broward County Courthouse is the American nightmare.
"Case No. 06-19776," intoned the auctioneer, a foreclosure clerk named Barbara Pendergrass.
Near the back, Earl Lawrence leafed through his thick black binder and looked up the property, a small townhouse in Tamarac.
His research sheet told the story: Bought for $65,500 in September 2000, a foreclosure judgment for debts totaling $188,000 last December.
"They borrowed themselves right out of a home," said Lawrence, 46, of Hollywood, a real estate investor who has been coming to the public auctions for 25 years.
Florida has more foreclosures in the pipeline than any other state, 19,144 in February, according to RealtyTrac, a national firm that tracks the numbers.
Much of the coming misery will be concentrated in South Florida, where homeowners have been socked by high prices, high property taxes, soaring insurance premiums and gimmick mortgages that have blown up in their faces.
The crowd of about 50 in the cramped room was mixed with lawyers, lenders, savvy old pros and curious newcomers eager to pounce on others' misfortunes.
The auctions are held every Wednesday and Thursday at 11 a.m.
Those losing homes usually don't show up. But their broken dreams are always here.
There were no bids on the Tamarac townhouse Thursday, apart from the minimum $100 that the foreclosing bank made to formally seize the property.
The same thing happened with most of the 88 properties up for auction last week.
The real estate market has become so uncertain, and the debts racked up on these properties so high, even the vultures aren't nibbling.
"Would you buy a property for $420,000 if you could only sell it for $400,000?" said Adnan Kabbara, 55, of Weston, a developer and contractor who has bought homes at auction for four years.
Properties that would have attracted a bidding war a year or two ago, when the real estate market was soaring, now stay with the lenders. The banks sell them through major national real estate firms, more frequently at a loss.
"The party's over," said Lawrence.
It's over for homeowners who used their homes as ATM machines, got maxed out on home equity loans and refinancing, and now have nowhere to turn. It's over for lenders who gave credit to almost anybody, offering zero-down, adjustable-rate mortgages to risky borrowers. And it's over for the investors who thought they could make an easy killing on real estate.
You'd think with more foreclosures, there'd be more opportunities for the opportunists. But the auctions have become ultra-conservative, with only a handful of properties triggering bids.
When a property does get action, a high-stakes poker game erupts.
"There's an enormous amount of competition," said Lawrence. "There are so many people trying to get the few viable properties, they get bid up to the point of razor-thin margins."
In the not-so-distant days of the roaring real estate market, even sloppy speculators who didn't do their homework could get away with mistakes. All they had to do was wait six months and they'd still make a profit.
No more. Now a slumping market means the costs and potential hang-ups of buying a foreclosed home could lead to losses.
"It's a risky business," said Kabbara.
On Thursday, one investor almost made a costly mistake. He bid $406,000 for a waterfront mansion in Lighthouse Point. He didn't realize the $402,132 foreclosure judgment was a second mortgage, and that there was also a first mortgage of $938,000 about to foreclose.
"He thought he was going to get a $1 million home for $400,000," said Dominic Abreu, attorney for the lender.
Before the man paid nearly $27,000 in deposits and fees to the court clerk, Abreu asked him if he was aware of the first mortgage.
"His jaw almost hit the ground," Abreu said.
The man scurried out before paying, scuttling the deal.
Bidders are responsible for doing title searches, which sometimes reveal other mortgages, liens or fines on the property. They also have to do legwork to see if the properties have hurricane, mold or fire damage, more difficult since they have no right to enter the property.
It's akin to buying a car without being allowed to open the door, never mind taking it for a test drive.
But with more loans and homes skidding off the rails, the crowd in Room 385 isn't going to thin anytime soon.
As the auctioneer worked through the stack of folders on Thursday, investor John Derynda groaned that he should have brought lunch.
"Two months from now," he said, "it's only going to be worse."
Foreclosures on the rise
Trend causing payments to balloon
Michael Perrault
The Desert Sun
April 1, 2007
Home foreclosures climbed in February across the Coachella Valley, up to 62 from just seven at the same time last year.
Mortgage default notices jumped to 282 valleywide in February, up from 104 in February 2006, according to figures released by La Jolla-based real estate research firm DataQuick Information Systems.
The numbers represent an upward trend in foreclosure activity that's likely to continue through 2007 and into 2008, as many overextended homeowners in the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and beyond grapple with higher monthly mortgage payments as their adjustable-rate mortgages reset at higher interest rates, said economist Esmael Adibi, director of Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research in Orange.
"Some people were counting on home prices to continue going higher, and they would buy themselves out by refinancing," Adibi said. "Of course, that's not happening."
Although February's numbers represent a whopping 786 percent increase in foreclosures and a 171 percent increase in defaults, such percentages can be misleading, experts said.
That's because numbers in February 2006 and before were extremely low amid a climate of strong home sales and steep home-price appreciation. So even the slightest increase in February resulted in triple-digit percentage increases.
In Indio's 92203 ZIP Code, for instance, there were only two mortgage default notices filed in February 2006, so an increase to 13 represents a 550 percent jump. The ZIP Code area has more than 6,100 homes.
Similarly, some cities in the valley had only one or two foreclosure sales in February 2006, so jumps to seven or 10 foreclosure sales translate to triple-digit percentage increases.
Though the foreclosure and default numbers are relatively low considering all the homes in the valley, some mortgage experts and real estate agents worry that the steady increase may be indicative of a broader trend.
"I'm aware of a significant number of loans that were interest-only, 100 percenters, adjustable rates - 3-year, 5-year adjustables - and they're starting to come due right now," said John Sloan, Realtor with T-Rex Realty in Palm Desert.
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http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pb...0070401/BUSINESS04/704010304/1043/HOMESCAPE98
Yep, That's a strong market...
I love the "stats can be misleading" line. May indicate a growing trend??? What a bunch of stupid douchebags! Nothing misleading about it. We have about 25% of the homes with NOD (Notices of Default) going to foreclosure. Historically not greater than 10% The greatest number of ARM resets haven't even happened yet. Yep, It's different this time...
Those that say this is only the 2006 purchasers being in trouble are dead wrong. 60% of the NOD's are 2004 and 2005 buyers/financers.
I think Fall 2009 will be the time to look at buying, and be ready for a protracted flat period.
Trend causing payments to balloon
Michael Perrault
The Desert Sun
April 1, 2007
Home foreclosures climbed in February across the Coachella Valley, up to 62 from just seven at the same time last year.
Mortgage default notices jumped to 282 valleywide in February, up from 104 in February 2006, according to figures released by La Jolla-based real estate research firm DataQuick Information Systems.
The numbers represent an upward trend in foreclosure activity that's likely to continue through 2007 and into 2008, as many overextended homeowners in the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and beyond grapple with higher monthly mortgage payments as their adjustable-rate mortgages reset at higher interest rates, said economist Esmael Adibi, director of Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research in Orange.
"Some people were counting on home prices to continue going higher, and they would buy themselves out by refinancing," Adibi said. "Of course, that's not happening."
Although February's numbers represent a whopping 786 percent increase in foreclosures and a 171 percent increase in defaults, such percentages can be misleading, experts said.
That's because numbers in February 2006 and before were extremely low amid a climate of strong home sales and steep home-price appreciation. So even the slightest increase in February resulted in triple-digit percentage increases.
In Indio's 92203 ZIP Code, for instance, there were only two mortgage default notices filed in February 2006, so an increase to 13 represents a 550 percent jump. The ZIP Code area has more than 6,100 homes.
Similarly, some cities in the valley had only one or two foreclosure sales in February 2006, so jumps to seven or 10 foreclosure sales translate to triple-digit percentage increases.
Though the foreclosure and default numbers are relatively low considering all the homes in the valley, some mortgage experts and real estate agents worry that the steady increase may be indicative of a broader trend.
"I'm aware of a significant number of loans that were interest-only, 100 percenters, adjustable rates - 3-year, 5-year adjustables - and they're starting to come due right now," said John Sloan, Realtor with T-Rex Realty in Palm Desert.
--------
http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pb...0070401/BUSINESS04/704010304/1043/HOMESCAPE98
Yep, That's a strong market...
I love the "stats can be misleading" line. May indicate a growing trend??? What a bunch of stupid douchebags! Nothing misleading about it. We have about 25% of the homes with NOD (Notices of Default) going to foreclosure. Historically not greater than 10% The greatest number of ARM resets haven't even happened yet. Yep, It's different this time...
Those that say this is only the 2006 purchasers being in trouble are dead wrong. 60% of the NOD's are 2004 and 2005 buyers/financers.
I think Fall 2009 will be the time to look at buying, and be ready for a protracted flat period.
Bankrate.com
Western real estate cools, with exceptions
Monday April 2, 6:00 am ET
Dana Dratch
They don't call it the wild, wild west for nothing.
While the West is experiencing the same buyer's market as the rest of the country, it enjoys some special factors that set it apart. First, with a median home price of $355,100 at the end of 2006, home costs are higher than in any other region of the country, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
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And homeowners spend a larger chunk of their income on housing: 35 percent on average, according to NAR statistics.
When it comes to high home prices, California is king. "The California market is the most expensive in the country," says Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for the NAR. In the San Francisco area, a median-priced home is $733,000, according to recent NAR data. In the San Jose area, it's $760,000. And in Anaheim/Santa Ana it's $690,700.
At the same time, inventory in the state "by recent standards is high, but not excessive," says Yun. California's inventory is "close to the national average" of 7.2 months (the amount of time it would take to sell the current supply at the current sales rate), says Yun. But because the housing market there has been so tight, it's not something to worry about, he says.
Location, location, location
When it comes to home values, each city has its own story.
In Long Beach, Calif., "I have found more properties on the market and properties staying on the market longer," says Dick Gaylord, a president-elect of the NAR and a Realtor with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach. "But I have not seen a decline in prices."
Instead of selling in days or weeks, as they did in during the boom, homes are staying on the market two or three months, Gaylord says. "It's not abnormal. We're getting back to a normal market."
Yet even some areas of California saw modest price declines last year. San Diego prices went down 1 to 2 percent, Yun says. Most of the rest of California experienced slower appreciation, gaining 3 to 5 percent over 2006.
In general, anything that was formerly a really hot market is "now a buyer's market," says Bernard Markstein, senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders. In some parts of the West, building restrictions and natural boundaries keep inventory low, which helps keep prices moving upward.
"L.A. proper is in good shape," but areas like Riverside and Bakersfield have seen "overbuilding," says Markstein.
Some cities, like San Diego, have an excess of condos on the market, along with "some excess single, family homes," says Markstein.
Prices still rising
For California as a whole in 2007, a modest price increase is expected, says Yun. "Something not more than 5 percent," he says.
On the whole that's about on par with what Yun expects to see from the region as a whole. And parts of the West may do even better, according to recent data. In areas, like Idaho, Utah and New Mexico, inventories are stabilizing or declining "because sales are going at a good pace," says Yun.
A good pick for nice appreciation in 2007? Utah, says Yun. Double-digit appreciation of "maybe a 15 percent rise for 2007 -- which is much higher than the 1 to 2 percent for the nation," he says.
Utah "did not really participate in the boom," he says. "So there is a little catch-up impact. The second reason is that jobs are coming around very strongly."
In parts of Arizona and Nevada, real estate speculators entering, then leaving, the market had an effect. "There now is an excessive supply -- close to 10 months," says Yun. That, he says, will likely diminish prices. A healthy local economy and strong job growth is helping, he says. "There are plenty of buyers, but there are plenty of sellers," says Yun.
"The rest of the West, I think, will be one of the better performing markets" in 2007, says Yun.
Go east young man
One phenomenon he credits: Many Californians are "moving out and choosing nearby states," he says. "And they are bringing their equity with them." In addition, the job market is "very strong throughout the West," he says.
In some western cities, like Denver, inventories are high. In other areas, like Portland and Seattle, there are additional homes, "but there are still some buyers" so while it's been a buyer's market, it's "definitely a tighter market than the rest of the country," Yun says.
Denver homes are staying on the market three to four months, says Kit Cowperthwaite, president of the Colorado Association of Realtors. But January sales rates were up about 25 percent from last year and average home prices are still rising. In 2006, appreciation was at about 3 percent, he says. This year, housing starts have been down so there are less new homes on the market, he says.
"We're cautiously bullish," says Cowperthwaite. "It's still a buyer's market, but reasonably strong."
"Prices have stabilized," says Carol Dozois, a regional vice president for the NAR with a territory that includes Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Alaska. "In a few select areas it may have dropped slightly, but ever so slightly."
In Eugene Ore., where she works, she's seeing homes stay on the market 30 to 45 days. But her area also saw appreciation during the second half of 2006. "As long as interest rates stay down and supply does not substantially increase, the market's going to stay healthy," Dozois says.
Many experienced pros, which recognize the cyclic nature of real estate, aren't worried. "This is my thirtieth year in the business," says Chuck Edell, president of the Bay East Association of Realtors, who practices out of Freemont, Calif. "This is a healthy, normal market. Agents who have been in the business five years don't know what a normal market would be."
And the outlook for homeowners is bright in 2007.
"We wouldn't be surprised to see home prices increase 10 percent" in parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, says Yun. In Arizona and Nevada, "there's a huge inventory out here," he says. "At the same time, job growth is the fastest of the country. And rents are rising so fast; close to 10 percent. I think that will force some of the renters to enter the housing market."
As a region, the West is "where the excitement will be," says Yun.
Dozois agrees. "I just think this will be a really good year for real estate."
Related story: See what $400,000 will buy across the country.
Western real estate cools, with exceptions
Monday April 2, 6:00 am ET
Dana Dratch
They don't call it the wild, wild west for nothing.
While the West is experiencing the same buyer's market as the rest of the country, it enjoys some special factors that set it apart. First, with a median home price of $355,100 at the end of 2006, home costs are higher than in any other region of the country, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
ADVERTISEMENT
And homeowners spend a larger chunk of their income on housing: 35 percent on average, according to NAR statistics.
When it comes to high home prices, California is king. "The California market is the most expensive in the country," says Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for the NAR. In the San Francisco area, a median-priced home is $733,000, according to recent NAR data. In the San Jose area, it's $760,000. And in Anaheim/Santa Ana it's $690,700.
At the same time, inventory in the state "by recent standards is high, but not excessive," says Yun. California's inventory is "close to the national average" of 7.2 months (the amount of time it would take to sell the current supply at the current sales rate), says Yun. But because the housing market there has been so tight, it's not something to worry about, he says.
Location, location, location
When it comes to home values, each city has its own story.
In Long Beach, Calif., "I have found more properties on the market and properties staying on the market longer," says Dick Gaylord, a president-elect of the NAR and a Realtor with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach. "But I have not seen a decline in prices."
Instead of selling in days or weeks, as they did in during the boom, homes are staying on the market two or three months, Gaylord says. "It's not abnormal. We're getting back to a normal market."
Yet even some areas of California saw modest price declines last year. San Diego prices went down 1 to 2 percent, Yun says. Most of the rest of California experienced slower appreciation, gaining 3 to 5 percent over 2006.
In general, anything that was formerly a really hot market is "now a buyer's market," says Bernard Markstein, senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders. In some parts of the West, building restrictions and natural boundaries keep inventory low, which helps keep prices moving upward.
"L.A. proper is in good shape," but areas like Riverside and Bakersfield have seen "overbuilding," says Markstein.
Some cities, like San Diego, have an excess of condos on the market, along with "some excess single, family homes," says Markstein.
Prices still rising
For California as a whole in 2007, a modest price increase is expected, says Yun. "Something not more than 5 percent," he says.
On the whole that's about on par with what Yun expects to see from the region as a whole. And parts of the West may do even better, according to recent data. In areas, like Idaho, Utah and New Mexico, inventories are stabilizing or declining "because sales are going at a good pace," says Yun.
A good pick for nice appreciation in 2007? Utah, says Yun. Double-digit appreciation of "maybe a 15 percent rise for 2007 -- which is much higher than the 1 to 2 percent for the nation," he says.
Utah "did not really participate in the boom," he says. "So there is a little catch-up impact. The second reason is that jobs are coming around very strongly."
In parts of Arizona and Nevada, real estate speculators entering, then leaving, the market had an effect. "There now is an excessive supply -- close to 10 months," says Yun. That, he says, will likely diminish prices. A healthy local economy and strong job growth is helping, he says. "There are plenty of buyers, but there are plenty of sellers," says Yun.
"The rest of the West, I think, will be one of the better performing markets" in 2007, says Yun.
Go east young man
One phenomenon he credits: Many Californians are "moving out and choosing nearby states," he says. "And they are bringing their equity with them." In addition, the job market is "very strong throughout the West," he says.
In some western cities, like Denver, inventories are high. In other areas, like Portland and Seattle, there are additional homes, "but there are still some buyers" so while it's been a buyer's market, it's "definitely a tighter market than the rest of the country," Yun says.
Denver homes are staying on the market three to four months, says Kit Cowperthwaite, president of the Colorado Association of Realtors. But January sales rates were up about 25 percent from last year and average home prices are still rising. In 2006, appreciation was at about 3 percent, he says. This year, housing starts have been down so there are less new homes on the market, he says.
"We're cautiously bullish," says Cowperthwaite. "It's still a buyer's market, but reasonably strong."
"Prices have stabilized," says Carol Dozois, a regional vice president for the NAR with a territory that includes Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Alaska. "In a few select areas it may have dropped slightly, but ever so slightly."
In Eugene Ore., where she works, she's seeing homes stay on the market 30 to 45 days. But her area also saw appreciation during the second half of 2006. "As long as interest rates stay down and supply does not substantially increase, the market's going to stay healthy," Dozois says.
Many experienced pros, which recognize the cyclic nature of real estate, aren't worried. "This is my thirtieth year in the business," says Chuck Edell, president of the Bay East Association of Realtors, who practices out of Freemont, Calif. "This is a healthy, normal market. Agents who have been in the business five years don't know what a normal market would be."
And the outlook for homeowners is bright in 2007.
"We wouldn't be surprised to see home prices increase 10 percent" in parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, says Yun. In Arizona and Nevada, "there's a huge inventory out here," he says. "At the same time, job growth is the fastest of the country. And rents are rising so fast; close to 10 percent. I think that will force some of the renters to enter the housing market."
As a region, the West is "where the excitement will be," says Yun.
Dozois agrees. "I just think this will be a really good year for real estate."
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