A sense the housing market has bottomed.
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
People are starting to pull the trigger. If sales are up, can prices be far behind? This is NEW data...not tired old stuff or opinion.
Sales of Existing Homes Jump in January
Tuesday February 27, 11:10 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Existing Home Sales Rise in January but Prices Keep Falling
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes rose in January by the largest amount in two years, raising hopes that the worst of the severe slump in housing may be coming to an end. Median home prices, however, fell for a sixth straight month.
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The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that sales of previously owned homes rose by 3 percent last month, the biggest one-month increase since a 3.3 percent increase in January 2005, a time when housing was roaring toward the peak of its five-year boom.
The median price of an existing home sold in January dropped to $210,600, a decline of 3.1 percent from a year ago. It marked the sixth straight month that the median price has been down compared with a year ago. The January decline was the third-biggest drop in history.
(Article continued about consumer confidence up info...snipped...)
Sales of Existing Homes Jump in January
Tuesday February 27, 11:10 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Existing Home Sales Rise in January but Prices Keep Falling
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of existing homes rose in January by the largest amount in two years, raising hopes that the worst of the severe slump in housing may be coming to an end. Median home prices, however, fell for a sixth straight month.
ADVERTISEMENT
The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that sales of previously owned homes rose by 3 percent last month, the biggest one-month increase since a 3.3 percent increase in January 2005, a time when housing was roaring toward the peak of its five-year boom.
The median price of an existing home sold in January dropped to $210,600, a decline of 3.1 percent from a year ago. It marked the sixth straight month that the median price has been down compared with a year ago. The January decline was the third-biggest drop in history.
(Article continued about consumer confidence up info...snipped...)
It's a temporary blip - noise.
The housing market isn't even close to a bottom. Wait until the spring inventory hits the markets and bloats things beyond all comprehension.
The housing market isn't even close to a bottom. Wait until the spring inventory hits the markets and bloats things beyond all comprehension.
"Existing Home Sales Rise in January but Prices Keep Falling "
Now take a moment and think about what this would look like as a trader. Imagine a candle stick chart.
This would be a red candle with higher than usual volume.
Does anyone consider that a good thing????
I hope not.
Dont fall for the "spin". The way they write that, you would think its a good thing.
Now take a moment and think about what this would look like as a trader. Imagine a candle stick chart.
This would be a red candle with higher than usual volume.
Does anyone consider that a good thing????
I hope not.
Dont fall for the "spin". The way they write that, you would think its a good thing.
Exactly, especially considering the source is the NAR. David Liarrhea, after spending several months denying there was even the possibility of RE price declines, has since been calling for a bottom every few weeks for about six months.
The psychology during bear markets, and RE is no exception, is that the bulls will grab onto every straw they see along the banks of the River of Hope as it flows toward the inevitable waterfall. They'll only believe it's a bear market when they're sprawled dead on the rocks at the bottom.
Don't know about candlesticks, but I know when there is too much of a commodity, the price drops until demand meets supply. I think the real question is whether the inventories of unsold houses are growing or shrinking. Last I heard, they were shrinking nominally. Trying to forecast a bottom when you're near it is hard...but these are good indicators.
FWIW, prices on smaller houses are perceptibly rising in my neck of the woods.
SM
Thats pretty dramatic. Maybe if we talk it down some more instead of looking at the latest data, we'll all feel secure in our decision making. So what is the psychology as a bear market turns bullish? Do the bears throw themselves over the cliff for not listening?
One uptick (stipulating the NAR figures represent reality - lazy "journalists" only parrot what they're told) does not mean the RE bull market has returned.
Yes, real estate WAS in a bull market, with occasional corrections, for decades. The final run-up was a classic blow off top consistent with other major market tops. Even the most marginal buyers were offered the "opportunity" to get in. Lenders honestly believed, and therefore funded, loans regardless of a borrower's income or credit history if they were willing to lie.
Bull markets end when those who want to get in are in and there are very few or no buyers left. After such a huge credit expansion, who's left to buy all the inventory? Who hasn't already gotten in if he/she wanted to? Partcipation in the fantasy was almost total and the sentiment boiled down to, "You must get in NOW or be priced out forever!!!"
Bear markets don't turn bullish until there's capitulation. Right now, RE bulls are still in the denial stage. My assertion is the NAR data is a "straw" that hopeful bulls will use to justify their positions, just as you've done.
I would have thought someone using a handle of "Smart Money" would understand that one tick doesn't equal a trend change, that markets don't turn on a dime, and that they usually don't go straight down (or up).