A sense the housing market has bottomed.

[Smart Money]

Quote from bgp:

IS THERE STILL A SENSE THE HOUSING MARKET HAS BOTTOMED ?

So early in the year, sales of existing homes were decreasing at a rate of 200,000 to 300,000 a month. Now they are dropping at a rate of 60,000 a month. So the rate at which sales are decreasing is itself decreasing to 20% of what it used to be. Thats deceleration. If you remember your college calculus, it implies that we've passed the inflection point and the curve is concave up.

Isn't that what a bottom looks like???

SM

 

[bgp]

NO. SMALL BUMPS IN A DECELERATING MARKET .

BGP

 

[Jayford]

EVERY SINGLE new home company says we are not even close to bottom. Listen to Toll Bros.

The numbers that look good are there because the new home dealers are discounting like mad. Inventory kills them. They'd take a loss before sitting on a prop.

 

[bgp]

i made a mistake in my last quote . i meant small bumps up in a downward market .

bgp

 

[bgp]

i have it ! the housing market has bottomed on the 1st plateau and there are 4 more to go.

bgp

 

[bgp]

I AM A GENIUS ! of course just in my own mind .

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from Smart Money:

So early in the year, sales of existing homes were decreasing at a rate of 200,000 to 300,000 a month. Now they are dropping at a rate of 60,000 a month. So the rate at which sales are decreasing is itself decreasing to 20% of what it used to be. Thats deceleration. If you remember your college calculus, it implies that we've passed the inflection point and the curve is concave up.

Isn't that what a bottom looks like???

SM

LMAO.

My calculus was a long time ago but I think you might have forgotten yours. In fact lets stop being pretentious here: you don't need calculus for this shit.

If it was decreasing at 200k per month (line is down ) and now its decreasing at 60k per month then ... duh, the line is up??? ... no, sorry, the line is still down. So the curve's downward slope has decreased, but its not up. And there is no mathematical requirement for it to stop going down before the rate of sales reaches zero.

There is an old saying amongst experienced forecasters: "never confuse an S-curve with an exponential." Should we now include, never confuse "down more slowly" with "up"

 

[trader07]

Quote from marketsurfer:

he is correct.

regards,

surf

I agree surf. When the market looks bleakest that is the time to buy.

 

[bgp]

why yes kiwi , so i was correct . we have hit the 1st plateau with slight deceleration, but with for more falls which will equal 5 total.

bgp

 

[bgp]

exuse spelling four {4}