A sense the housing market has bottomed.
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
He can be correct even if your housing market continues to fall, even if it plummets. He says that "there's a sense" and as long as "there's a sense" then he's right even if the sense is wrong.
5. That which is felt or is held as a sentiment, view, or
opinion; judgment; notion; opinion.
thank you.
regards,
surfer
history indicates that your thoughts are very very very accurate.
exactly! nice!
surfer
Weren't you short oil at 50?
Every single indicator of housing is far above where they were when housing last bottomed, around 1994 and every other time since WW2. Housing starts, permits, YOY % price change, housing construction as a % of GDP.
If it's a bottom, it's a short term bottom and certainly no indicator of imminent rise.
no. short oil at an average price of 75.50 and still holding.
documented here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...age=6&highlight=oil short surf&pagenumber=587
thank you,
surf
Its not the stock market where you have people shorting and having to bid the prices higher to cover
historically housing moves with inflation
with rising oil, rates , etc....inflation has risen///just look at ur insurance bill
so to say housing will go up is not a BOLD statment
lest say we at 3% inflation and the housing market sits flat
IN real terms it lost 3% (not to mention mortgage, maintance, etc)
if u look at some housing pull backs (or debacles if u may) ..u'll see prices in LA in the 80s went down like 15% over a 7 yr period ...but in real terms..over 7 years it was more like 40%
i agree with others on this post...as a trader living in miami..we are JUST STARTING to see "GOOD" deals and fire sales...and the majority of the condo's have not been built yet..even good deals are not printing immediately....and really..they are not even good deals 2br for 500k is not a "good " deal..its still a lot of money
im assuming that is what is goin on in Las vegas, az, cali ,etc
Min 5 years to see a "REAL" uptick...meaning rising with inflation or higher at least in this market
nationally..who knows .....lets be honest ..its all local anyways...
people in Detroit, TX , etc didnt get the RIP people in NY, DC, CAli ,FL got.....so they shouldnt come in like those places did
(even though in detroit ..its a blood bath..family lives there)
if i could i'd Arb Detroit with Miami in a heartbeat
Long D town..short Miami
GO WOLVERINES!!!
d
with rising oil, rates , etc....inflation has risen///just look at ur insurance bill
so to say housing will go up is not a BOLD statment
lest say we at 3% inflation and the housing market sits flat
IN real terms it lost 3% (not to mention mortgage, maintance, etc)
if u look at some housing pull backs (or debacles if u may) ..u'll see prices in LA in the 80s went down like 15% over a 7 yr period ...but in real terms..over 7 years it was more like 40%
i agree with others on this post...as a trader living in miami..we are JUST STARTING to see "GOOD" deals and fire sales...and the majority of the condo's have not been built yet..even good deals are not printing immediately....and really..they are not even good deals 2br for 500k is not a "good " deal..its still a lot of money
im assuming that is what is goin on in Las vegas, az, cali ,etc
Min 5 years to see a "REAL" uptick...meaning rising with inflation or higher at least in this market
nationally..who knows .....lets be honest ..its all local anyways...
people in Detroit, TX , etc didnt get the RIP people in NY, DC, CAli ,FL got.....so they shouldnt come in like those places did
(even though in detroit ..its a blood bath..family lives there)
if i could i'd Arb Detroit with Miami in a heartbeat
Long D town..short Miami
GO WOLVERINES!!!
d
Quote from marketsurfer:
no. short oil at an average price of 75.50 and still holding.
documented here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...age=6&highlight=oil short surf&pagenumber=587
thank you,
surf
interesting.. did you make those two trades (1: short djia, 2: short oil) as intended hedges to each other? They create somewhat a neutral position.
Oil selling off was writing on the wall for a market rally... these really are two contraindicated trades.
Perhaps my problem is I make too many trades derivative of an overall macro view.
ie...
long oil, short market, short airlines, short usd, long ag commodities, short housing.
they are all correlary positions, though. ie short airlines = long oil.