A retired stockbroker tells me why most retail investors lose money

taowave said:
You are way way off

Forget edge,thats a totally different subject as how it relates to position sizing and money management..Dont confuse the 2...

In the perfect world,to maximise returns you need both...

You are way way off and not understanding what I am saying. Run a quick simulation of varying 2-1 ratios, with varying hit rates and compounding..

If you backtest,or can accurately approximate your "odds",you can compute the optimal risk reward /stop and profit target...

The casino example is ridiculous :)
More...

Either we are not understanding each other or you are way off.
It is not 50/50 that the market goes up or down or your trade wins or loses if the stop and target are different distances otherwise all we would have to do is flip a coin with a 3:1 reward to risk
 
tommo said:
...

casinos risk 36 to make 1 on a roulette wheel and they always win over time.
More...

I'm not arguing as I indeed understand the gist of what you are saying.
However the roulette comparison is incorrect.

A standard wheel has 36 numbers, 0, and double 00. The payout for a direct hit is 35:1
So right off the bat, the player has a 1/38 chance of hitting for a 35 to 1 payout.

With a cock-eyed understanding, it can be said the house makes 3 every time there is a direct number payout!! That is me... cock-eyed. I am not a game of chance expert in any way.

And I also know when the advanced math of a direct number roulette win is applied, (which I do not know or care about) the house edge average is a little north of 5% over time.

The only takeaway that Im getting at is that the player has a 1/38 chance of winning a 35:1 payout. 1 out of 38 are not the odds consistently successful trading is made of.
 
Trust me,I am not way off..

You don’t understand the geometric effect of losses and how it relates to probability and varying the stop/ profit amounts while keeping the ratio constant…

Fwiw,you used a coin flip as an example,and you are still clueless as to compounding returns and the effect of increasing losses while keeping the risk reward ratio constant..

Do the simple math





tommo said:
Either we are not understanding each other or you are way off.
It is not 50/50 that the market goes up or down or your trade wins or loses if the stop and target are different distances otherwise all we would have to do is flip a coin with a 3:1 reward to risk
More...
 
Last edited:
Everyone, more or less, trades in a completely random fashion of following momentum and basic support/resistance levels,
While that is not necessarily a bad thing, it's a less than optimal and efficient way to trading and understanding and approach to the market,

That's like trying to find a date by deciding to say hi to every random woman who passes by, and if she smiles....walk up to her to close the deal. It's a rather sloppy approach with no understanding, wisdom, and perspective.

I have yet to find someone who is able to trade the daily market, the S&P, in the same intelligent, insightful, way process that I do,
It's making me think....if I truly am an 'elite' trader, one of the bests in the world, even a genius,
 
Last edited:
MacBookProHo said:
I have yet to find someone who is able to trade the daily market, the S&P, in the same intelligent, insightful, way process that I do,
It's making me think....if I truly am an 'elite' trader, one of the bests in the world, even a genius,
More...

Why would you like to find that person? What do you have to win? Or to offer?
Do you think that someone at that level would like to give up his privacy? What has that person to win? And what can he/she lose?
 
MacBookProHo said:
That's like trying to find a date by deciding to say hi to every random woman who passes by, and if she smiles....walk up to her to close the deal. It's a rather sloppy approach with no understanding, wisdom, and perspective.
More...

You should use a serie of consecutive, eliminating processes to reach your goal.
Each next proces has to filter the previous proces to reduce the number of candidates. Each proces must have a different approach than the previous proces. So there are never two identical processes in a set.

The same applies in trading.
 
tommo said:
Cut losses, run winners is not a holy grail by any means. Try a system where you flip a coin and risk 1% to make 3% randomly. You will be around breakeven after 1000 trades. Down after costs. Same if you go and risk 3% to make 1% randomly. I’ve worked with dozens of highly successful traders that averaged down, risked more than they stood to make and everything in between. The fact is, unless you have a statistical edge it means nothing and cutting losers and running winners is a sound way to ensure you don’t lose everything but it is not a way to make money in isolation.
More...

If you do not have a trading edge, you should not be trading in the stockmarket. Go gamble in Las Vegas instead. You will get comped rooms, food, get cash back from the casinos. Now, if you lose your monies in the stockmarket----you do not get anything.
 
Nah,you are not an elite,one of the best or even a genius...

You simply havent found the right combination of drugs yet deal with your paranoid Schizophrenia



MacBookProHo said:
Everyone, more or less, trades in a completely random fashion of following momentum and basic support/resistance levels,
While that is not necessarily a bad thing, it's a less than optimal and efficient way to trading and understanding and approach to the market,

That's like trying to find a date by deciding to say hi to every random woman who passes by, and if she smiles....walk up to her to close the deal. It's a rather sloppy approach with no understanding, wisdom, and perspective.

I have yet to find someone who is able to trade the daily market, the S&P, in the same intelligent, insightful, way process that I do,
It's making me think....if I truly am an 'elite' trader, one of the bests in the world, even a genius,
More...
 
virtusa said:
Why would you like to find that person? What do you have to win? Or to offer?
Do you think that someone at that level would like to give up his privacy? What has that person to win? And what can he/she lose?
More...
I offer nothing or have nothing to gain. I just want to know if my approach and trading process to the daily S&P is truly unique, one of a kind....a certifiable, new, original, genius,
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top