A Relic Trading On Feeling

Gotcha said:
Nice results, and thanks for sharing the graphs.

I wonder if you could make a comment about your stats. I realize that since you trade different instruments this might vary, but generally speaking, can you comment about your win rate and average win and loss? There have been so many discussions and arguments on the board about what is necessary and possible, and so I wonder if you would be able to provide a data point from your live trading experience. I'm mostly curious about ES, but if you also have numbers for GC and CL, that would be interesting.
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I don't know the exact figures, and don't really care.

They don't mean much to me as distribution is not balanced/random in intraday trading. For example, a coin flip is unbiased at the next toss. A trade is not to me. If I average 65% win rate trade in the long run, I certainly do not expect 65% on the next trade after a loss. Your emotion is depleted. You might have a wrong bias in the last trade that you try again. You might've flipped bias when you should've kept it. The long term 65% means nothing to me on the next trade.

But if I had to guess I would put it around 60% and 1:1.6.
 
QuasWexExort said:
I don't know the exact figures, and don't really care.

They don't mean much to me as distribution is not balanced/random in intraday trading. For example, a coin flip is unbiased at the next toss. A trade is not to me. If I average 65% win rate trade in the long run, I certainly do not expect 65% on the next trade after a loss. Your emotion is depleted. You might have a wrong bias in the last trade that you try again. You might've flipped bias when you should've kept it. The long term 65% means nothing to me on the next trade.

But if I had to guess I would put it around 60% and 1:1.6.
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Excellent, thanks. I know what you mean that going forward there should be no expectation of what happened before, but I was just asking to get a feel for where your stops and target expectations. Sometimes people claim over an 80% win rate on something like a 1:3, which would be insane. Of course, some people even make money with a just a 20% win rate and hit it out of the park when they do win.
 
I was pondering this when doing errands this afternoon. Hybridization and to what extent it has affected my trading. I maintain an advanced AI bot which largely runs unattended (took a year+ to laboriously correct errors) and I trade a few Futures e-minis discretionary (segregated accounts).

I looked up how many times I have made certain queries, mostly what side of the market the AI recons it is on etc. Turns out I "peeked" into it about once every 6 days.

There are two pretty savage drops caused by poor calls in the attached CL and ES combined equity curve, these coincide with:

a. Me being ill (2)
b. Me moving home (1)
c. My bot being offline/updating for both.

I have a pretty good second opinion and am effectively a hybrid AI/human trader already to some degree.

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Final update for this account as this account is being closed and rolled into a new account as IB has set up new Australian entity.

Following the establishment of Interactive Brokers Australia Pty Ltd (IB Australia), who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence, number 453554, Australian residents maintaining an account with Interactive Brokers LLC (IB LLC) will have their account transferred to IB Australia as IB LLC intends to cease business in Australia.

Hopefully regulations are sorted out and we get to trade spot FX as well.

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Took a hit 2 weeks ago that ended my 28th net positive week streak. Thankfully was able to recover it the week after with some big wins.
 
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2018 first quarter and since inception from FS. Definitely an outlier quarter from the volatility with much larger than expected returns and drawdowns.

This journal is damn boring I know, I'm no writer. I may give YouTube or other mediums a try out. Just something to do when I'm bored and still want to do something trading related.
 
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With some luck caught the drop and held onto it on day trading leverage for a big boost. Got lucky again on trailing stop was 3 points off my trailing stop, profit would be halfed if it went 3 points higher.

My sharpe ratio obviously suffered with the large volatility which dragged the FS score down and knocked me out off the leader boards. Don't really care as I am not seeking funds, what I thought was interesting as a long volatility strategy fund would have similar profile and would be punished for it even though they are desirable strategies as hedges against broad market.

Need to work on more strategies to smoothen out the curve.
 
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