a rare marketsurfer stock pick

Quote from marketsurfer:

holding TASR long here. daily candle pattern indicates 75% likelyhood of today's upmove continuing tomorrow ( friday )

best,

surfer
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12-04-03 09:40 AM
Re: TA - Self-fulfilling prophesy?


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Quote from rodden:

Once upon a time TA was simple - and it worked. When TA traders referred to simple consolidation patterns, multiple tops/bottoms, volume-trend patterns and other such unsophisticated chart phenomena they had a definite advantage over the general - and generally disorganized - investing population.



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self fullfilling for longs.

self defeating for shorts.


best,

surfer

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Hey Surf, I pulled this response of yours from the thread is "TA self-fulfilling". Basically, from this and your comments to inandlong concerning TA you have made it basically clear you don't utitlize it or believe in its ability to be harnessed as a predictor of price movement. What I'm curious about is that you just posted that TASR is due for a move upwards again beginning on friday 12/5/03 because of the Candlestick pattern that is setting up on the daily chart. Now I know that it is in wide agreement that Candlestick pattern recogonition is in the camp of those who practice TA. With what you have posted on Elite Trader about your beliefs concerning TA, how can you then justify posting that TASR may go up tommorow based on a TA indicator/predictor? Thanks for taking the time to answer. All the best.
 
Quote from Romeo:

Facts: TASR 422K shares short in Oct 2003, and an increase of +148K shares to 570K shares short in November. So someones obviously able to short it! 570K shares have been sold short as of latest figures.

570K shares have been sold short as of latest figures.

I don't know what "search" you did, but I hope it's not IB and Scottrade. Try checking Goldman, or Lehman, or Merrill. Shares are quite plentiful at those brokerage houses.
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sure, many shares have been sold short. try checking short availabilty when TASR was at 80, on the date in question.

best,

surfer:)
 
Quote from Speakingout:

Hey Surf, I pulled this response of yours from the thread is "TA self-fulfilling". Basically, from this and your comments to inandlong concerning TA you have made it basically clear you don't utitlize it or believe in its ability to be harnessed as a predictor of price movement. What I'm curious about is that you just posted that TASR is due for a move upwards again beginning on friday 12/5/03 because of the Candlestick pattern that is setting up on the daily chart. Now I know that it is in wide agreement that Candlestick pattern recogonition is in the camp of those who practice TA. With what you have posted on Elite Trader about your beliefs concerning TA, how can you then justify posting that TASR may go up tommorow based on a TA indicator/predictor? Thanks for taking the time to answer. All the best.
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i utilize TA, just not in the typical fashion. please reread my post to inandlong http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=15153&perpage=6&pagenumber=27

the issue i have with TA is when someone shows a chart and states, " SEE how easy this was to predict"--- the facts are it was not easy for most before it occured, if it was easy-- it likely would not occur in that way.

sorry for the confusion.

best,

surfer :) :)
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

i utilize TA, just not in the typical fashion. please reread my post to inandlong http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=15153&perpage=6&pagenumber=27

the issue i have with TA is when someone shows a chart and states, " SEE how easy this was to predict"--- the facts are it was not easy for most before it occured, if it was easy-- it likely would not occur in that way.

sorry for the confusion.

best,

surfer :) :)
More...
Hey surf, I agree thanks for the clarification of you position on TA. Of course those who come back after the fact and say "yes it was so obvious from the chart" are usually not making money. It is the traders who take each signal from their experience of reading charts and their instinct of the tape (displayed visually in what is called a chart) and place proper stop losses that make money. The fact that TA seems so allusive to most goes hand in hand with the fact that most people will fail at trading. It is only the best that make the money utilizing TA well before the "after the fact" monday morning quarterback chart readers. I'm glad we both agree then that TA does work for a handful of people. Take care Surf.
 
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