A Random Walk Down Wall Street

I really need to find out if there is really no momentum in the stock market, meaning if a stock is going up, it has greatly than a 50/50 chance up continuing on upward and if a stock is going down, it has greatly than a 50/50 chance up continuing on downward. Finding out the answer to this fundamental question may change my whole trading strategy, because so far I have just focus most of my attention on momentum or trend following strategies i.e. I use different methods to find and buy stocks that look like they’re moving upward and then sell them when they look like they are no longer in an upward trend either by trailing stop or other method don’t hold anything over night. Has anyone here had consist success using such types of trend following strategies?
 
Try the following sites:

Timertrac.com, futurestruth.com, collective2.com, striker securities, robbins world cup trading, strategyrunner, attain capital, and others that track or audit systems/trades.

Consider the very very few systems that appear profitable. Remove systems that average down or hold&hope. Consider that there is a constant influx of systems, so a strong survivorship bias

adjust any profitable system for risk (profit factor, sharpe, drawdowns, etc. etc.)

one gets the idea that the market is a lot more efficient & random, and traders do a lot worse than most on ET will portray.

Anyone who claims to be profitable for the past few months is probably kidding themselves. Luck is a huge factor in short term success.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

Wall Street doesn't make its big money trading, it makes it selling things that trade.
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I think he was talking about traders and not Wall Street.
 
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