A Question for Scalpers

Quote from popesidious:

I Scalp the NYSE but I don't aim for 3 cent profits, I ride my winners until I have a reason to get out. Sometimes I've been able to catch a point move. With the losers I show no mercy.

By the way, Taleb is wrong, the markets are neither random or normally distributed.
More...

You are wrong:

Taleb's thing is trying to taking advantage of the "fat tail" phenomenon...
Which has been common knowledge for 20 years to everyone...
Except Victor Niederhoffer and those world-class idiots at LTCM.

Except for the tails which are rare events by definition...
The markets are very close to normally distributed.

Approximating any normal-like distribution implies strong randomness.

The fact that very smart or very "inside" traders can find and exploit inefficiencies...
Or that markets are often manipulated...
Does not disprove the overwhelming randomness of the markets that confront the average investor.

rm+

:cool: :cool: :cool:
 
The more I look into this guy Taleb...
The more he appears to be just another Cramer-type media/propaganda conglomerate.

Can anyone link to some ** evidence ** that Taleb's fund has performed well since 2001.

Volatility has been declining steadily for 4 years.
Anyone steadily buying OTM options would have been pretty much wiped out.

rm+

:cool: :cool: :cool:
 
Quote from RedManPlus:

You are wrong:

Taleb's thing is trying to taking advantage of the "fat tail" phenomenon...
Which has been common knowledge for 20 years to everyone...
Except Victor Niederhoffer and those world-class idiots at LTCM.

Except for the tails which are rare events by definition...
The markets are very close to normally distributed.

Approximating any normal-like distribution implies strong randomness.

The fact that very smart or very "inside" traders can find and exploit inefficiencies...
Or that markets are often manipulated...
Does not disprove the overwhelming randomness of the markets that confront the average investor.

rm+

:cool: :cool: :cool:
More...

There is nothing more dangerous than common knowledge, not because an idea has been in use for 20 years it means it is accurate. Common knowledge doesn't make money in the markets.

If markets were normally distributed that would mean that 68% of the data would be lie within 1 standard deviation, 95% within 2 standard deviations and 99% within 3 standard deviations. If you make a little counting you'll find out that this is not the case.

I didn't like Taleb's book, I didn't buy his sound theories, I'm more inclined to believe in Niederhoffer's work which he shares with dummies like us in his dailyspeculations.com.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top