Quote from FaderTrader:
I just finished reading Fooled by Randomness and also read one of Taleb's papers titled, "Bleed or Blowup? Why Do We Prefer Assymetric Payoffs?"
His key argument is that most people bet dollars in order to make a steady stream of pennies rather than pennies in order to make dollars less frequently.
So, my question is this...
Behind all my trading is my firm belief that the ONLY thing that separates successful from unsuccessful traders is that the former allow themselves to get lucky.
My question for scalpers is this: How can you hope for long-term success if you are betting dollars to make pennies and cutting off your upside by negating the opportunity to get lucky?
I've been betting dollars to make pennies for 13 years...
And have outperformed the S&P 500 by about 20% annually.
The key is to use statistically valid quantitative analysis...
To find "relatively mispriced stocks" in less efficient market niches.
Quants can scalp with a 10 minute horizon...
Or use ** exactly the same analysis ** to put on longer positions (like 1-2 weeks).
THIS IS THE KEY EXPLANATION.
So every time I enter into a position... I usually have 2 things going for me:
(1) I'm buying/shorting something that has become inefficiently priced.
(2) The bid/ask spread is in my favor.
And overall... my Portfolio is well diversified and close to 50/50 long/short.
How you manage your losses in the key to everything.
One must be absolutely ruthless at taking losses early and avoid bleeding to death.
Another bus comes along every few minutes... so I get off a losing bus quickly.
So Fader... I enjoy reading your posts...
But maybe you don't know a lot of quants.
And in terms of "randomness" I would probably agree with Taleb most of the time.
rm+
