‘Peak Oil’ Is a Myth & Waste of Energy

Incorrect. Spurious. Almost asinine to conclude static progress in alternative energy AND alternative ENGINES.


The internal combustion engine is ARCHAIC. The only reason this anachronistic device is still around is because of politics and the nature of wealth distribution. Fords manufactured 50 years ago had better gas mileage than many Fords sold today. It's in someones interest to keep the world sucking off oil.


Those who have the money, dictate what the rest use and think. And much wealth is derived from oil. Many new technologies are simply bought off and moth balled.


Your argument holds water only when we believe the world will continue to use the archaic internal combustion engine technology in perpetuity with progress in other forms of energy and engines remaining static.








Quote from Misthos:

Yeah, right... the transition will be seamless.

More like resource wars and economic collapses. Here's a good visual of how competing energies stack up to oil. By the way, a cubic mile of oil is roughly what the world consumes in one year.

ncmo01.gif


Oil is KING - there is no replacement, no equivalent.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy

The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) per year.[11] In 2002, this was more energy in one hour than the world used in one year

One would just need to capture 0.02% of solar radiation to be totally free of other sources.
solar2009-08-27_215637.gif
 
Quote from tmarket:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy

The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) per year.[11] In 2002, this was more energy in one hour than the world used in one year

One would just need to capture 0.02% of solar radiation to be totally free of other sources.

Unfortunately oil has a better ROI. I read some calculations years ago that said for 1 barrel of used oil you can dig up 30 barrels of oil. While to get 1 barrel of wind-energy you needed to have 0.8 barrels of wind energy used. Then Oil has an ROI of 30 and wind energy an ROI of 1.2
The highest ROI of an energy source has the best efficiency.
In the graph that was displayed only nuclear energy I believe came close, an ROI just below 10.
All alternative energies had ROI below 5, some below 2.
I don't know how much has changed since then but this is the sole reason oil is such a good energy source. Imagine one canister of oil, it has alot, and I mean ALOT of energy stored up in it.

Combustion is indeed a wasteful process alot of energy is lost through wasteful heat transfer. If you could convert the energy 100% then our oil consumption could be reduced by as much as two-thirds.
 
Quote from college_trad3r:

Unfortunately oil has a better ROI. I read some calculations years ago that said for 1 barrel of used oil you can dig up 30 barrels of oil. While to get 1 barrel of wind-energy you needed to have 0.8 barrels of wind energy used. Then Oil has an ROI of 30 and wind energy an ROI of 1.2
The highest ROI of an energy source has the best efficiency.
In the graph that was displayed only nuclear energy I believe came close, an ROI just below 10.
All alternative energies had ROI below 5, some below 2.
I don't know how much has changed since then but this is the sole reason oil is such a good energy source. Imagine one canister of oil, it has alot, and I mean ALOT of energy stored up in it.

Combustion is indeed a wasteful process alot of energy is lost through wasteful heat transfer. If you could convert the energy 100% then our oil consumption could be reduced by as much as two-thirds.

My family owns a solar and wind company. Your numbers are very misrepresenting. Mostly probably because as you acknowledged, it was years ago.

Take solar panels being produced right now. It takes about 18 months for one of those panels to produce enough energy to replicate itself. That sounds like a long time until you consider the life of them. Warranty on our panels is 20-25 years depending on manufacturer. Even old solar panels are lasting longer than 20 years.

IOW, during its life, a single solar panel will produce enough usable energy to make about 20 more of itself. That really isn't that far behind oil. That also uses panels that are currently only 20% efficient and manufacturing processes that are still in development.

There are panels that get to 40% efficient in converting sunlight to electricity, but they are usually cost prohibitive which will not be the case for very long.

At 40% efficiency, the US would need to install 831 square miles of solar panels to provide for current electrical consumption. To put that in perspective, that would require every single-family-detached home in the US to put 15 of our standard size solar panels on their roof.

Anyone who says it's crazy to think that solar could be the main source of energy, is simply misinformed. Solar has come a really long way during the past few years since oil started to skyrocket. Specifically the retail cost of solar panels has dropped 40% during the last 6 months. Yes, we got stung by the price drop as we had inventory on hand, but consumers are now approaching payback periods of only 6 years on their purchase. Needless to say, sales pick up pretty quickly when you can tell someone that they can roll it into their construction loan and pay less per month on the system than it is saving them in electrical bills each month.
 
Quote from Cache Landing:

My family owns a solar and wind company. Your numbers are very misrepresenting.

Take solar panels being produced right now. It takes about 18 months for one of those panels to produce enough energy to replicate itself. That sounds like a long time until you consider the life of them. Warranty on our panels is 20-25 years depending on manufacturer. Even old solar panels are lasting longer than 20 years.

IOW, during its life, a single solar panel will produce enough usable energy to make about 20 more of itself. That really isn't that far behind oil. That also uses panels that are currently only 20% efficient and manufacturing processes that are still in development.

There are panels that get to 40% efficient in converting sunlight to electricity, but they are usually cost prohibitive which will not be the case for very long.

At 40% efficiency, the US would need to install 831 square miles of solar panels to provide for current electrical consumption. To put that in perspective, that would require every single-family-detached home in the US to put 15 of our standard size solar panels on their roof.

Anyone who says it's crazy to think that solar could be the main source of energy, is simply misinformed.

Petrodollar recyling is another reason OIL will not be replaced until it is too late.

The US benefits from oil being traded in dollars. Every solar transaction around the world does nothing for the US treasury market.

But I wish your family and biz the best - I genuinely mean that.
 
Quote from Misthos:

Petrodollar recyling is another reason OIL will not be replaced until it is too late.

The US benefits from oil being traded in dollars. Every solar transaction around the world does nothing for the US treasury market.

But I wish your family and biz the best - I genuinely mean that.

Hey, I'm not suggesting that all the sudden tomorrow everyone will rush to buy solar. When each decent size system nets a profit of several thousand dollars, we don't have to capture much market share.

Your petrodollar argument makes sense, but there is now, and will continue to be a natural transition. Oil recently dropped to $30 per barrel and solar only became cheaper and more viable. Like I said, on new construction the 30-y loan payment for the system is less than the monthly electrical savings. The only problem we are fighting right now is these old rumors about how expensive it is.
 
I mentioned Cantarell in the past.

Here's a sobering article on Cantarell, Peak Oil, and ultimately, Mexico's future.

Not good.

From the article:

"The proponents of peak oil—the theory that the world is no longer finding enough new oil from conventional sources to keep up with increases in oil consumption—can rightfully point to Cantarell as confirmation for one part of their theory. Once a field goes into decline, peak oil proponents have argued, the decline in production is shockingly rapid.

Cantarell is now Exhibit #1."

http://jubakpicks.com/2009/09/10/me...duction-is-proving-peak-oil-proponents-right/

From The Oil Drum:

Cantarell%20decline_0.png
 
Quote from vhehn:

The fact remains that the abiotic theory of petroleum genesis has zero credibility for economically interesting accumulations. 99.9999% of the world's liquid hydrocarbons are produced by maturation of organic matter derived from organisms. To deny this means you have to come up with good explanations for the following observations.

1) The almost universal association of petroleum with sedimentary rocks.

2) The close link between petroleum reservoirs and source rocks as shown by biomarkers (the source rocks contain the same organic markers as the petroleum, essentially chemically fingerprinting the two).

3) The consistent variation of biomarkers in petroleum in accordance with the history of life on earth (biomarkers indicative of land plants are found only in Devonian and younger rocks, that formed by marine plankton only in Neoproterozoic and younger rocks, the oldest oils containing only biomarkers of bacteria).

3) The close link between the biomarkers in source rock and depositional environment (source rocks containing biomarkers of land plants are found only in terrestrial and shallow marine sediments, those indicating marine conditions only in marine sediments, those from hypersaline lakes containing only bacterial biomarkers).

4) Progressive destruction of oil when heated to over 100 degrees (precluding formation and/or migration at high temperatures as implied by the abiogenic postulate).

5) The generation of petroleum from kerogen on heating in the laboratory (complete with biomarkers), as suggested by the biogenic theory.

6) The strong enrichment in C12 of petroleum indicative of biological fractionation (no inorganic process can cause anything like the fractionation of light carbon that is seen in petroleum).

7) The location of petroleum reservoirs down the hydraulic gradient from the source rocks in many cases (those which are not are in areas where there is clear evidence of post migration tectonism).

8 ) The almost complete absence of significant petroleum occurrences in igneous and metamorphic rocks (the rare exceptions discussed below).

The evidence usually cited in favour of abiogenic petroleum can all be better explained by the biogenic hypothesis e.g.:

9) Rare traces of cooked pyrobitumens in igneous rocks (better explained by reaction with organic rich country rocks, with which the pyrobitumens can usually be tied).

10) Rare traces of cooked pyrobitumens in metamorphic rocks (better explained by metamorphism of residual hydrocarbons in the protolith).

11) The very rare occurrence of small hydrocarbon accumulations in igneous or metamorphic rocks (in every case these are adjacent to organic rich sedimentary rocks to which the hydrocarbons can be tied via biomarkers).

12) The presence of undoubted mantle derived gases (such as He and some CO2) in some natural gas (there is no reason why gas accumulations must be all from one source, given that some petroleum fields are of mixed provenance it is inevitable that some mantle gas contamination of biogenic hydrocarbons will occur under some circumstances).

13) The presence of traces of hydrocarbons in deep wells in crystalline rock (these can be formed by a range of processes, including metamorphic synthesis by the fischer-tropsch reaction, or from residual organic matter as in 10).

14) Traces of hydrocarbon gases in magma volatiles (in most cases magmas ascend through sedimentary succession, any organic matter present will be thermally cracked and some will be incorporated into the volatile phase, some fischer-tropsch synthesis can also occur).

15) Traces of hydrocarbon gases at mid ocean ridges (such traces are not surprising given that the upper mantle has been contaminated with biogenic organic matter through several billion years of subduction, the answer to 14 may be applicable also).

The geological evidence is utterly against the abiogenic postulate.

Um, i think you just made the case for, not against, abiotic genesis. ?????????
 
We already have plenty of fuels we can use for heating, electricity and car fuel. It's because of the stupid oil goons that we haven't actually exploited any of it properly yet, as far as I'm concerned the only reason they're trying to scare people like this is so that they can get money for selling the stuff.
 
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