âPeak Oilâ Is a Myth & Waste of Energy
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Quote from achilles28:
The "Peakers" won't like that !!
By their "calculations", global crude supplies should have been exhausted...5 years ago!!
Dumbass.... Peak Oil theory has NOTHING to do with complete oil exhaustion. The issue is one of production and demand. When production levels off and demand continues - what do you have? That's the Peak.
The question is not if, but when.
In the US, the lower 48 reached peak oil production in the early 1970s. That's a fact.
Look here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb1105.html and look at the US column.
And what happened to US oil demand since the 1970s? It continued to grow. That's why we now import a growing amount of oil.
Are you aware that the US, up until the 1950s, was the world's largest exporter of oil?
What happened?
I thought the shit replenishes itself?
Fool.
I'm not a peaker and I don't think my ax needs grinding today, so maybe it's worth looking at what variables are involved without trying to quantify the impact each may or may not have - bearing in mind that for everyone we can think of there are probably a few more we haven't.
1. drilling technology. Are drilling depths going up in a linear or exponential manner? How much more efficient is it likely to become? Are we looking at oily guys humping pipe for the forseeable future or might there be other tech that would be more automated.
2. extraction. Is the tech advancing such that break-even on things like tars sands is likely to decline or stay the same? Even in "dry" wells, there's still some oil left in the ground. Will it continue to get cheaper to get the last drop?
3. exploration. How well is the geology understood. We don't have wild catters any more, but you still have to drill and sometimes they're still wrong. Is it possible oil could be found in places other than those where exploration has been focused.
4. How quickly are other techs likely to advance. Is a 600mile full electric car 5 years away or 30 years away. If we got room temp superconductors tomorrow, what impact would that have? It would make wind more economical and efficient - same for power transmission.
I could go on, but you get the idea. This is the one area where no one ever expects a Black Swan - by which I mean a brilliant white swan that outshines the sun.
No one expected the Spanish Inquisition either.
1. drilling technology. Are drilling depths going up in a linear or exponential manner? How much more efficient is it likely to become? Are we looking at oily guys humping pipe for the forseeable future or might there be other tech that would be more automated.
2. extraction. Is the tech advancing such that break-even on things like tars sands is likely to decline or stay the same? Even in "dry" wells, there's still some oil left in the ground. Will it continue to get cheaper to get the last drop?
3. exploration. How well is the geology understood. We don't have wild catters any more, but you still have to drill and sometimes they're still wrong. Is it possible oil could be found in places other than those where exploration has been focused.
4. How quickly are other techs likely to advance. Is a 600mile full electric car 5 years away or 30 years away. If we got room temp superconductors tomorrow, what impact would that have? It would make wind more economical and efficient - same for power transmission.
I could go on, but you get the idea. This is the one area where no one ever expects a Black Swan - by which I mean a brilliant white swan that outshines the sun.
No one expected the Spanish Inquisition either.
what hydrocarbons are you guys talking about?
methane is very simple, oil is not.
therefore I would easily believe methane to be possible made without organisms.
but to make these hydrocarbons you need energy and the carbon and hydrogen molecules. You guys do realize those molecules are exactly the type of molecules that all organisms happen to have in abundance. In fact humans are nothing but "skeleton" hydrocarbons with additives like metals Fe, Si, Se, and other type moleculs like S,O,N, etc. It is not hard to deduce that dead organisms are excellent for creating hydrocarbons.
Peak oil, is alot more plausible, just like atheism. But for the record, I believe any estimate as to what influence it will have, and the date it will occur, is all myth. Nobody can predict these things.
methane is very simple, oil is not.
therefore I would easily believe methane to be possible made without organisms.
but to make these hydrocarbons you need energy and the carbon and hydrogen molecules. You guys do realize those molecules are exactly the type of molecules that all organisms happen to have in abundance. In fact humans are nothing but "skeleton" hydrocarbons with additives like metals Fe, Si, Se, and other type moleculs like S,O,N, etc. It is not hard to deduce that dead organisms are excellent for creating hydrocarbons.
Peak oil, is alot more plausible, just like atheism. But for the record, I believe any estimate as to what influence it will have, and the date it will occur, is all myth. Nobody can predict these things.
Yes. The result of that process we call "coal".
and i'm not surprised you think there were enough dinosaurs to make trillions of barrells of oil
of course, when you're the kind of guy that thinks inorganic matter springs to life, <b>all by its lonesome</b>, you'll believe just about anything.
Theres so much mis information in this article.
It's obviously written by someone who's NOT in the oil industry.
What a joke.
And then you get the typical idiots posting about abiogenic oil.
Yeah... If it was that easy then why the F am I sitting on a rig in the north sea that costs over 500,000/day running million dollar tools into the ground and logging sedimentary formations full of fossils???
OH thats right - Oil is plentiful and everywhere and doesnt come from fossils.
Fucking idiots.
We actually have geologists/ paleontologists on the rig that LOOK AT FOSSILS IN THE CUTTINGS so they can accurately date the formations we are drilling.
The fact that anyone believes this horse crap is just beyond me. 5 minutes of reading on the internet will clearly show you there's no proof of this abiogenic crap.
Do you really believe there is a massive conspiracy that every single oil company and millions of people that work for them, geologists, engineers, reservoir engineers, service companies, are all in on the same scam???
It's obviously written by someone who's NOT in the oil industry.
What a joke.
And then you get the typical idiots posting about abiogenic oil.
Yeah... If it was that easy then why the F am I sitting on a rig in the north sea that costs over 500,000/day running million dollar tools into the ground and logging sedimentary formations full of fossils???
OH thats right - Oil is plentiful and everywhere and doesnt come from fossils.
Fucking idiots.
We actually have geologists/ paleontologists on the rig that LOOK AT FOSSILS IN THE CUTTINGS so they can accurately date the formations we are drilling.
The fact that anyone believes this horse crap is just beyond me. 5 minutes of reading on the internet will clearly show you there's no proof of this abiogenic crap.
Do you really believe there is a massive conspiracy that every single oil company and millions of people that work for them, geologists, engineers, reservoir engineers, service companies, are all in on the same scam???