A no-brainer day!
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Speculator1929
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Thank you Darkhorse, It was tongue in cheek!
Fleckenstein puts it well at RM.com
Cisco Kidding No One: To return to Cisco, let's keep in mind that the company is in essence nothing special -- just the catalyst that came along to release the pent-up demand for a party. People should understand that all we are seeing is a rally, not the birth of the long-awaited tech bottom that has been called so many times. Throughout the history of the Nasdaq, nearly all of the biggest-percentage rallies have occurred since it peaked out at 5000. Nimble traders may want to go along for a scalp. But let's be clear: the rally should not be confused with an end to the decline in tech stocks.
The Sham Behind the Jam Job: On that score, I'd like to end today's Rap with some comments from a very smart friend who is basically bearish on tech, does great work, and who had the good sense to get long Cisco in front of its announcement: "Got long today ahead of this call ... but reality is, Cisco quarter an absolute joke. This is a relief rally, at best. Product revenue down sequentially, guidance is flat, gross-margin percent makes no sense (again, huge increase in gross profit dollars, with no revenue growth). Book-to-bill, below 1. Deferred revenue, no growth first time ever. Change in revenue recognition through leasing, etc. This is a big sham." And of course, Cisco's profits were helped by the inventory that was written off a year ago, just as many of us suspected ultimately would be the case.
Cisco Kidding No One: To return to Cisco, let's keep in mind that the company is in essence nothing special -- just the catalyst that came along to release the pent-up demand for a party. People should understand that all we are seeing is a rally, not the birth of the long-awaited tech bottom that has been called so many times. Throughout the history of the Nasdaq, nearly all of the biggest-percentage rallies have occurred since it peaked out at 5000. Nimble traders may want to go along for a scalp. But let's be clear: the rally should not be confused with an end to the decline in tech stocks.
The Sham Behind the Jam Job: On that score, I'd like to end today's Rap with some comments from a very smart friend who is basically bearish on tech, does great work, and who had the good sense to get long Cisco in front of its announcement: "Got long today ahead of this call ... but reality is, Cisco quarter an absolute joke. This is a relief rally, at best. Product revenue down sequentially, guidance is flat, gross-margin percent makes no sense (again, huge increase in gross profit dollars, with no revenue growth). Book-to-bill, below 1. Deferred revenue, no growth first time ever. Change in revenue recognition through leasing, etc. This is a big sham." And of course, Cisco's profits were helped by the inventory that was written off a year ago, just as many of us suspected ultimately would be the case.
Fleckenstein is a cool guy, tells it like it is, though I read him more for entertainment purposes than anything else. He's too macro to be of real value for short term but has a good forest for the trees kinda perspective
I agree w/ his total skepticism- its funny what you can see when you visually scan hundreds of charts every afternoon. Just about every single thing that rallied big yesterday had already been down bigger for days or weeks, and so the powerful looking move on the Naz composite chart was actually not much more than a clump of beaten up names jumping up just enough to peek out of the dumpster.
Stuff like this keeps the hope alive though- a fresh injection of false optimism for the buy and holders still in big tech, just enough sunshine to give them hanging on power so they don't sell until the next floor collapses.
Thanks to all of you who offered supportive comments.
Things did go a lot better today: A very fine long off the gap down (ADBE), a not bad short on the subsequent downswing (BRCM), some slightly iffy Qs scalping, not much more otherwise except for an all-day-sucker that refused to break down, but which I still closed for small profits.
Of course, in terms of opportunity loss, it may take weeks to make up for yesterday's fiasco. Oh well, too depressing to dwell on THAT... Was a start anyway....
Things did go a lot better today: A very fine long off the gap down (ADBE), a not bad short on the subsequent downswing (BRCM), some slightly iffy Qs scalping, not much more otherwise except for an all-day-sucker that refused to break down, but which I still closed for small profits.
Of course, in terms of opportunity loss, it may take weeks to make up for yesterday's fiasco. Oh well, too depressing to dwell on THAT... Was a start anyway....