A nice start to Friday

Superstar2317 said:
I agree to both...a little late to the party but could have another $5-$10pts to the downside. I'm just glad I dumped my January calls at $170 for profit when I bought them in the $150's as they're down 60-70%. I have read over the years Alibaba has made poor people in the middle of nowhere progress to middle class like no other. Rice farmers making multiples. I do think Xi will show whose boss but won't wound these companies completely. US investors fund a lot of Chinese companies even if technically they own nothing as they're VIEs. I think Evergrande will get help but not officially to slow such risky behavior. That being said, I'll probably day trade...BABA, NIO and XPEV, next week. NIO for sure if it hits $34 then I think $32.
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In Will Xi nationalize $BABA in classic Communist style? That is the question. It is that unknown uncertainty that will drive the price to Evergrande lows. BB is calling this collateral risk. This whole "Common Prosperity" push just started a month ago.. this is just the beginning.
 
Most times I won't comment on trading as there a hundred of ways to skin a cat, so in essence, anything goes.
This time (maybe I'm bored and filling in time) I'll prolong a little further.

There are two methods; either chase a trade or let it come to you.
Chasing a trade usually involves a decision which is hasty.
Letting it come to you, involves a waiting game where patience is the main ingredient along with focus to keep watching the prey.

The BABA trade looks like the former.
My experience, chasing a trade nearly always results in a reversal that one then needs endure.
 
kmiklas said:
I believe that it will continue to plunge. Time will tell.
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Exactly, time will tell, but a plunge wont come easy or quickly I doubt.
Reason for that is the trade looks too obvious.
Obvious trades usually bite my bum. :)
 
kmiklas said:
In Will Xi nationalize $BABA in classic Communist style? That is the question. It is that unknown uncertainty that will drive the price to Evergrande lows. BB is calling this collateral risk. This whole "Common Prosperity" push just started a month ago.. this is just the beginning.
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Apples and oranges comparison imo...Evergrande was a leveraged construction company with their hands in a few different things like EVs and wealth management or something. Alibaba is a cash cow which is growing rapidly still and if Ant Financial gets cleared up it'll rapidly bounce as it's been written down from $210B to like $70B by Bloomberg, 2wks ago. As I said, I think he'll push his will but not go scorched Earth. They did $90B of open purchases Thursday to quell markets as Hang Seng has been falling for weeks. To me, I see BABA likely holding $140 and definitely $130. If it sniffs $100 I'll give a huge congrats! GL
 
BABA is not going below $136+/- a bit.
You can hold me to it.
-vz

***edit:
....and note, I could have just as easily said $132 or $129 or whatever.
 
vanzandt said:
BABA is not going below $136.
You can hold me to it.
-vz
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I'll sidetrack slightly and go into the psychology side....
When looking at any chart, we are looking at hindsight analysis, ie we gather an opinion in hindsight.
Now hindsight opinions come two a penny, they are everywhere.
Looking at charts and having a hindsight view, it skews the brain into a bias.

Take BABA for example, looks like an obvious short from here because of the way it's falling, but the best shorts are taken at the top (where there's no hindsight), BABA may continue on down, who knows how much, but the risk vs reward is not worth it to me.

OP may want to short for only a day or so, dunno, if he's only doing intraday, throw everything away I said.
 
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