A nice start to Friday

[kmiklas]

I've been working this trade for days. I could just feel in my bones that it was going to break. It was sitting so heavily on that price level. I stubbornly refused to give up my position, despite Wednesday's move against me.

This is $BABA. I think that Xi Xinping sees the China big tech companies as a threat, and lubed up (or NOT) with them waiting in the showers, similar to Evergrande. I'm tempted to take, but since it broke through this resistance level and has a long way to go.

What I love most about this is that the Fed will have no love for BABA. We all know about the $120B/month in QE, and this MUST be considered in every trade. I'm calling it "Monetary Policy Risk," or "Fed risk." Of course there's a political side; this money will be used to buoy US companies, like AAPL, DOW, and SnP. I don't expect BABA to be high on the list as a beneficiary of U.S. monetary policy.

I'm waiting for the bounce and will double down on this trade.

Chart credit: Interactive Brokers

 

[terr]

Feels good when it comes together?

 

[fan27]

I've been working this trade for days. I could just feel in my bones that it was going to break. It was sitting so heavily on that price level. I stubbornly refused to give up my position, despite Wednesday's move against me.

This is $BABA. I think that Xi Xinping sees the China big tech companies as a threat, and lubed up (or NOT) with them waiting in the showers, similar to Evergrande. I'm tempted to take, but since it broke through this resistance level and has a long way to go.

What I love most about this is that the Fed will have no love for BABA. We all know about the $120B/month in QE. Of course there's a political side, and this money will be used to buoy US companies, like AAPL, DOW, and SnP. I don't expect BABA to be high on the list as a beneficiary of U.S. monetary policy.

I'm waiting for the bounce and will double down on this trade.



View attachment 268406

Nice....it is likely going to the low set back in 2018 around 130...might keep going lower after that.

 

[kmiklas]

Feels good when it comes together?

Thanks; yeah, I've made a lot of mistakes lately, and took some hard losses.

This trade everything really came together. I applied all the lessons learned from those losses.

 

[terr]

You know that saying - the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

It is a good feeling when once in a while you get a rationality affirmation.

 

[kmiklas]

You know that saying - the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

It is good feeling when once in a while you get a rationality affirmation.

Yes... I think that a large part of this "irrationality" is driven by Agenda.. and Fed QE dollars. The agenda is to keep equities on an upward trajectory.

Not so much with these Chinese companies. They're not exactly the centerpiece of the U.S. economic goals. In other words, the Fed isn't going to be so quick to jump in and artificially elevate and manipulate the price of BABA to achieve Fiscal and Monetary policy.

So the price discovery is a little "truer," if you know what I mean.

 

[Handle123]

Did you sell the highs in April and late June?

Using fundamentals I never can read between the lines, but what I find uniform is when someone is afraid, they develop more reasons of being in trade. Just easier to use chart.

It is fun when it all comes together, isn't it?

 

[kmiklas]

Did you sell the highs in April and late June?

Using fundamentals I never can read between the lines, but what I find uniform is when someone is afraid, they develop more reasons of being in trade. Just easier to use chart.

It is fun when it all comes together, isn't it?

No I've been making a lot of mistakes since Corona hit, taking losses, and learning some hard lessons.

I think I've finally taught myself how to trade, and have developed a basic trading style that wins 3/5ths of the time.

I spoke with a banker when Corona hit, and asked for a loan to trade. He said no, because they judge traders by how they did during the mortgage crisis. I wasn't trading in 2008-9, but realized that, in the future, I would be judged by how I traded during this crisis/pandemic. So, I really went for it. I wanted to learn everything I could from the volatile pandemic markets.

 

[Handle123]

What's funny, when you need a loan...bankers lock the door on someone.

It is like every 8 to 12 or so years I do over 200% returns, like in 1992, 2001, 2008 and 2020. Markets and people always seem to have same patterns, at highs check out magazines at Barnes and Noble, all get interested in market going higher, people/neighbors becoming day traders LOL. People allow emotions to cloud obvious judgements. Best to use monthly charts, if bars very large in one direction, nothing goes up forever, if already long stay with breakeven stops, trailing screws oneself long term profits. Learn topping patterns and how to hedge. If you long term short and see bottoming pattern, hedge till people say trend has changed, most people are wrong. Usually best times to go against crowd.

Good luck.

 

[David's faith]

Marx's Theory of communism shows what could come next. The risk to the theory is, that there will be so much dollar demand, that every government/economy depending on USD debt is going to default like dominos. Lets hope, that it isn't what China is up to