Quote from jem:
The algo now uses the 2012 election as the template... being forced to use the assumption the exit polls are reasonably accurate.
The only poll I saw which gave its sample size seemed to oversample independents... which made sense on this issue so if the algo had feelings it would have been pleased by that poll.
here cnn addresses independents... (its all tied up within the margin for error)
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/
The CNN poll results are similar to those from a new Pew Research Center poll also released Monday and surveys from Gallup and CBS News/New York Times surveys conducted last week, which indicate slightly more people blaming - or angry at - Republicans than Democrats or the president for the shutdown.
Not surprisingly, huge majorities of Democrats are angry at the Republicans, and huge majorities of Republicans are angry at Obama and Democrats. Independents are equally angry at all sides, with 59% of Independents very or somewhat angry at the Democrats, six in 10 angry at the GOP, and 58% angry at Obama.
jem take... (this is not the algo speaking)
the dems have two targets diffusing some polling questions.
if them dems only had one target... they would be reallying taking heat on this... as they should... because they could pass the budget section by section.
this is all does not matter right now... because the debt ceiling issue could also sway things.
in the end....
the Rs best scenario is that the dems cave because wall street and the FED will tell them too.
I just hope the Rs realize they are in the drivers seat and don't fold.