A must read WSJ article

robbie380 · Jan 16, 2008

Quote from andread:

It's interesting. I read all the time about cutting losses, but I still have to see a comment about this part of the article:

Housing remained strong, and the fund lost money. A concerned friend called, asking Mr. Paulson if he was going to cut his losses. No, "I'm adding" to the bet, he responded, according to the investor. He told his wife "it's just a matter of waiting," and eased his stress with five-mile runs in Central Park.

"Someone from more of a trading background would have blown the trade out and cut his losses," says Peter Soros, a George Soros relative who invests in the Paulson funds. But "if anything, the losses made him more determined."

honestly, i believe it just depends on the person not necessarily the background.

arealpissedgoy · Jan 16, 2008

Quote from nitro:

In the last twenty years, we have had bubbles form and bubbles pop almost continously. Will you be the next billionaire betting right on them as they form, and betting against them as they pop?

nitro

Biggest bubble around: NYC real estate.

Trader KGB · Jan 17, 2008

Quote from arealpissedgoy:

Biggest bubble around: NYC real estate.

Nah, still a lot of demand at all price levels. I know a legion of young 20-30 somethings that are priced out and waiting to get in, all hoping for a price drop. Add in all the foreign demand and that explains why prices were still up in '07 (by 1-2%).

KINGOFSHORTS · Jan 17, 2008

I don't know why they make such a big deal about this I mean its fucking obvious this housing bubble was gonna pop big and take banks with them. When you see unemployed people getting loans for McMansions bet against the financials I made a huge killing 2007 with buying a SKF and selling. no rocket science, just common sense people.

4DTrader · Jan 17, 2008

Quote from andread:

Housing remained strong, and the fund lost money. A concerned friend called, asking Mr. Paulson if he was going to cut his losses. No, "I'm adding" to the bet, he responded, according to the investor. He told his wife "it's just a matter of waiting," and eased his stress with five-mile runs in Central Park.

"Someone from more of a trading background would have blown the trade out and cut his losses," says Peter Soros, a George Soros relative who invests in the Paulson funds. But "if anything, the losses made him more determined." [/B]

Let's see whether some hedge fund genius out there is betting on the oil bubble going burst. When oil was at $80/barrel, some said the price was too high. I guess some hedgie hot head jumped on the short side. If an unconcerned friend calls this hot head and asks him if he is going to cut his losses, what will the hot-headed hedge fund manager say? He will say: "I cannot sleep, I cannot eat, I am in the house of pain." Remember the hedge fund betting on the wrong side of natural gas, Amaranth (what a stupid name for a hedge fund).

andread · Jan 18, 2008

Quote from 4DTrader:

Let's see whether some hedge fund genius out there is betting on the oil bubble going burst. When oil was at $80/barrel, some said the price was too high. I guess some hedgie hot head jumped on the short side. If an unconcerned friend calls this hot head and asks him if he is going to cut his losses, what will the hot-headed hedge fund manager say? He will say: "I cannot sleep, I cannot eat, I am in the house of pain." Remember the hedge fund betting on the wrong side of natural gas, Amaranth (what a stupid name for a hedge fund).

Interesting answer. I think you are the first one who says something against it. It's weird how opinions change when someone is making money.

John47 · Jan 19, 2008

IMO....the guy has some great attributes of a trader...aggressive...willing to make a huge bet when he believes the risk/reward is right (however he figured that out...stating in the article the trade had "huge upside and no downside")..thats probably the most important.

However whether he's truly an amazing trader we'll never know...because you only would have been able to see that if the thing went totally in his face. If he could have realized his mistimed it quickly enough to not blow out, then I'd say the guys phenomenal. If he didn't then he's just lucky.

But regardless he had a lot of luck. Any one huge windfall will involve an element of luck. Conversely, many small consistent victories over time come from skill.

Pekelo · Jan 19, 2008

Also consider that he was in the position to take advantage of the situation. You and I might have a similar idea, but what are our chances of rising 4-500 millions to fund the strategy???
His whinning about the friendship is bullshit because:

1. Friend didn't sign a non-disclosure agreement.
2. He didn't make less money because the friend copied him.
3. He never thought the friend could actually copy (being able to trade it) the idea.

If he was worried about being copied, he should have just kept it to himself....

John47 · Jan 19, 2008

Quote from Pekelo:

Also consider that he was in the position to take advantage of the situation. You and I might have a similar idea, but what are our chances of rising 4-500 millions to fund the strategy???
His whinning about the friendship is bullshit because:

1. Friend didn't sign a non-disclosure agreement.
2. He didn't make less money because the friend copied him.
3. He never thought the friend could actually copy (being able to trade it) the idea.

If he was worried about being copied, he should have just kept it to himself....

Well I mean the guy is wildly successful besides this trade, obviously. He made millions before. So he's in that league...beyond myself and probably all (or nearly all) of the posters on this board.

The question of whether he's in the league of Lampert, Sorros, PTJ, etc is what I was addressing. I'm thinking not. I'm guessing he eared the millions through work and skill, which gave he the opportunity to take a shot at making billions....

So he made his millions through skill and work...and luck turned that into billions.