A mini ES scalper's journal

6-24-2010
Total trades: 5 RTs
winner: 3
loser: 2
net p/l: 0.5 pt

I though this morning's down thrust to 1070 would be today's low. 1074-1075 was 62% of the retrace from 1040 to 1130 on SPX.

I went long at 1075.25 at 11:50 when price got above 20 bar EMA (5min). The volume looked increasing for the last 3 5 min bars. At 12pm, it broke 1076 supply line. I tried to hold it a little long. I got out at 1075.50 when the price fell back under the supply line.

Between 12:18 and 12:44pm, I tried to go long at retracement. The first was 20 bar EMA (5min), then the 78% fib retrace from early daily swing range. This retrace was deep then I would expect. I got stopped out twice for 2 pts loss.

I went last long at 1073.5 at 12:48pm based on reverse bar setup. My original profit target was 1077 (previous resistance) or 1080 (measured move based on first up leg. However, the 5 min bar at 1pm was a getting wide and made lower low and higher high vs previous bar. I got out at 1075.5.

The two leg up move was stalled near 1081 (yesterday's low). Then it made a measured move to 1067 swing low after breaking the bear flag at 2:45pm.

This retracement is a bit deep than I would expected. There are some divergence seen when price made 1066.5 swing low.

EURO made higher low today. TNX was not extremely bearish today either. The down movement of US equity indices at this point don't look very panic to me. I still expect some bounce to retest 1097-1105 level soon.
 
6-28-2010
number of trades: 1RT (ES)
winner: 1
net p/l: 8.75 pts

Price continued its consolidation.

I went long at 1067.5 at 9:56am. 1067-1071 is accumulation value level based on my analysis. I got out at 1076.25 at 11:27am seeing 1078 was the resistance level for the daily price movement. I though I would be able to get better long entry later if it goes back to 1071 level.

I was away since 12 noon and came back to my desk at 3:30pm.
 
Quote from ycxc16588:

6-28-2010
number of trades: 1RT (ES)
winner: 1
net p/l: 8.75 pts

Price continued its consolidation.

I went long at 1067.5 at 9:56am. 1067-1071 is accumulation value level based on my analysis. I got out at 1076.25 at 11:27am seeing 1078 was the resistance level for the daily price movement. I though I would be able to get better long entry later if it goes back to 1071 level.

I was away since 12 noon and came back to my desk at 3:30pm.
More...

Nice trade.

What made you hold for more points instead of scalping like your usual trades ?
 
6-29-2010

Number of trades: 1 RT
winner: 1
net p/l: 0.75 pts

Today was a big surprise to me for I didn't expect such dramatic down movement. I thought 5-10 pts down thrust would define a bottom for at least several days.

I went long at 1041.75 near 12:40 for higher low. I got out at 1142.50. Today's selling pressure was too intense. I thought the 1040 would hold. I didn't want to chase short either.
 
Quote from volente_00:

Nice trade.

What made you hold for more points instead of scalping like your usual trades ?
More...

The usual small scalping is not really working for me after some experimental period. My winning probability was not high enough to be profitable with small gain or small loss. The bid/ask spread and commissions are also against me. Another reason was I could not really sit in front of screen for the whole trading session every day.

Besides cutting loss quick, I want to see how I can hold winner a little longer. I guess there might be one or two really good trade a day or even every few days. That is probably what I should focus on. Anyway, I am still experiencing to find what suits me and what type of trade I would be comfortable with.
 
6-30-2010

Total number of trades: 4 RTS
loser: 4
net p/l: -3 pts

I traded between 12-1pm. It was too choppy for me. There might be some fireworks at later session, but I am calling a day for me.
The 50% fib level seemed to hold for the moment. 1040 is a critical level on ES. Let's see where it closes.
 
7-1-2010

Bought one ES July 1030 call when SPX was near 1018 around noon. I am holding it to SPX 1035-1039 probably by the close.

Since this is kind of "bottom pick" trade, I used less leveraged product instead of ES contract.
 
7-8-2010

Total trades: 1 (ES)
winner: 1
net p/l: 2 pts

I have been extremely busy this week at work and couldn't have the time to do too much day trading. The 1030 ES July call I bought on 7/1 was closed yesterday near market close. On 7/5 night, the ES plunged to 1002.75 at one time, but I decided to hold the call for two several reasons, 1. SPX was probably not likely to be a HS when everyone is calling a HS. 2. Public got extremely bearish, while currency, commodity were not singing the same tune. The last if future makes extreme move at AH, while cash index doesn't confirm it, it usually says the opposite.

I expected some consolidation today. However, the last hour price movement yesterday and today indicated that some institution, such as mutual funds might be steadily buying.

I went short near 3pm at 1059 (stop 1060.25) target 1056. I covered at 1057. At 2pm,, price broke a bearflag. However, it was short of measured move. At 3pm, it looked like a retest bearflag extended channel bottom. There was not much followthru selling so I covered since the short is against main trend now. It was excellent long set up when the price breaking above bearflag channel the second time near 3:20. I stepped away from my desk and when I came back it was already at bearflag top channel line.
 
7-26-2010
It has been a while since my last post. I have been doing some study/testing and more study/testing cycles. I tried to develop a trading style that would fit me and my daily schedule. I don't think it would be realistic for me to do scalping everyday since I do have a day job which also requires high level dedication during the work hours. Besides, I want to develop an approach/trading style which would allow me to ride winning trades for more than 1-2 pts.

I use normal TA, market profile (S/R) and some tape reading whenever I get chance to watch the tape to arrive my short term trading plan (it could vary from minutes to 2-3 days, most would be several hours or overnight).

Today's trades
short one NQ at 1882, covered at 1877.25
short one NQ at 1877, covered at 1880
short one NQ at 1885 near close, plan to cover at AH near 1875.

NQ has shown certain weakness comparing with ES and YM. Although all three indices made nice advance today, I consider the up move is really laborious and quite tired. The price pattern/tape reading are not that pretty to shown buyers are in absolute control.
 
7-27-2010
Yesterday, I expected a possible 5 pts upthrust this morning on ES which would translate to ~10-12 pts upthrust on NQ.
I am still holding the short position of 1 NQ contract. My stop now is 1896 and target 1860.

Today's price action is not very pretty for bull. It looked like a falling off a rising wedge (bearish) with throwback retest.

If tomorrow SPY trades below 111.2, the next stop could be 109.8 to 110. If it goes above today's high, I would be stopped out.
 
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