A mini ES scalper's journal

6-8-2010
Total trades: 6 RTs (ES)

Winner:2
Loser: 3
wash: 1
net p/l: -2.5 pts

Based on yesterday's price action, the last 30 minutes selling was like to shake out weak hands and trap more sellers. I expected a down thrust in the morning and reverse then.

Today's morning down thrust had a lot overlapping. It does look like real panic selling to me. NQ was forming a nice falling wedge with a slight overthrow.
At 2 pm NQ made new low, but ES and YM didn't.

I went long between 12:10 to 1pm. I went long at 12:10pm when price hit 20 bar (2min) EMA without confirmation (next bar closes higher than the signal bar which touches the MA).

At 12:30, I went long at 1052.25 with dried up vol and small spread bar for consolidation. My original target was 1056. Stop 1051. I exit at 1053 at 12:46 (a sudden big retrace bar). Re-enter at 1053.25 and hold until 1055 seeing some resistance.

I did two long between 3 to 3:15pm on retracement. I set 1.5 stop loss and waiting for price to hit 1056 again. I got shaken out. The shakeout at 3:15 was a bit violent. Although both trade had 0.75 to 1 pt paper profit at one point, I tried not to micro-manage the trade. However, there were certain weakness and I would not entered long position if I see it. I was thinking I should probably have at least exit at break even after giving some time for trades to work, but it didn't.
 
6-9-2010
Total trades: 3 RTs (ES)
winner: 2
loser: 1
net p/l: 1.5 pts

NQ looked like breaking out of falling wedge since yesterday. ES gapped up this morning, retested yesterday's close successfully in the first hour of trading and then broke to the upside.

I went long at 74.5 at 12:14pm and out at 75 at 12:22pm right before it broke up to 76. It looked like forming a bull flag at the time. My strategy was to enter on lower channel of the bull flag at 23, 38 fib level.

I went long again at 72 at 1:14pm, a bounce from 38% fib level with a high low narrow 2 min bar and dried up volume. This was supposed to be the third attempt to break out of the top supply line of the bull flag if price moved near the trend line. However, the momentum to the upside was not very strong and there was not much volume follow thru. I got out at 73.25. This up leg could not reach the top side of the bull flag before it reversed and made lower low. This was a alarming signal that buying might have exhausted or today might not be a up trend day.

At 1:48pm, I went long again as price bounced from 62% fib level, a throwover the trend line than came in. I entered at 1070, but got out at 1069.75 as expected moving up didn't happen. Then price got a bit erratic with too much whipsaw before the later afternoon breakdown.

I didn't enter any short though there were so many excellent setups.

1052 seemed to be some important support level at this moment. The down movement since 2:30 might not look at bearish as it appeared to be. Another down thrust tonight to 1052-1047 could be the last move before significant up movements.
 
6-10-2010

Today is rollover day for ES contracts.

Total number of trades: 7 RTs (ESU10)
Winner: 4
loser: 3
net p/l: 0.25 pt

Between 12:40 and 1:20, I went long several times anticipating the breakout of bull flag.

I went long at 1071 at 12:40pm after two legs down and price breaking the mini-supply line with a throwback. On 5 min bar chart, 12:30 was a reverse setup bar. It was not so good long at that moment. I ddin't put hard stop and had to get out with 3 pts loss at 1068. Another problem with long at that moment was 20 bar MA on both 5 min and 2 min were going down, the price went above MA briefly made lower high and then moved below MA again. These would be short setups.

Between 12:46 and 12:52pm, I did a two scalping long trades with 1 pt profit. At 12:45pm, it was a reverse bar (5 min) at 50% fib level.

At 1:15pm, I went long again at 1070.5 and stopped out at 1068.75 (previous bar's low).

The price bars were fairly choppy and erratic between 12:30 and 1:30. I could have avoided loss if I had not traded during that period.

At 1:40pm, I went long at 1073 (stop 1072) as price broke the bull flag supply line drawn from 10and 11:30am swing high. I got out at 1074.75.

At this point, I definetly overtraded for the day.

At 2:13pm, I went long for my last trade today at 1071.5 (stop 1070.5) as pric ebounced from trend line support, 38% retrace level, higher low, and dip below 20 bar MA (5 min) briefly and went above it again (MA slope is up). It was also a IHS pattern.

My original target was 75. I got out at 1074. It was my best setup for the day. Why I got out at 74? I guess it was kind of breakeven point for me for the day. Imagine if I have used 5 min 20 bar MA to get out. I would have captured the entire second up leg from breaking out of bull flag. Apparently I have been affected by previous trades I made.

Again, I broke several of my trading rules today. 1. I overtraded today (no need to trade more than 5 trades per day for me); 2. I didn't use hard stop for one of my trade and it turned out to be the biggest loss of day. How could I avoid it? if I have to have a stop >2 pts, I should pass that trade.
 
6-11-2010

total trades: 3 RTs (ES)
winner: 3

net p/l: 1.5 pts

I was able to trade from 11:30 to 1pm.

Today was expected consolidation after yesterday's big rally.
NQ is forming a nicely defined symmetric triangle.

I did several scalps from long side, but these trades were average due to choppy movements within relatively small price range.

The last hour breakout of triangle was best setup of the day. I was expecting the price would settle near 23-38% retrace from top.

1pm to 3:30 ES was a little IHS.

Based on my reading from morning price action, the price/time ratio implied that the intraday high would be retested. However, I failed to act accordingly.
 
6-14-2010
Total trades: 7 RTs (ES)
winner: 2
loser: 4
wash: 1
net p/l: -1 pt

Between 12: 15 and 12:35, I went long twice anticipating breakout bull flag and possible retest of intraday high. I got stopped out at first one. I went long at 97.75 at 12:28pm and gout out at 98.75 since I didn't see volume as price broke out the mini-supply line of the bull flag.

Between 12:50 and 1:40pm, I went several long at 50, 62% fib retrace from morning high. I got stopped out 3 times. The last trade, I went long at 94.5 at 1:16pm on a reverse bar setup with climax volume. I got out at 1097 as price approaching the supply line.

The early morning low at open didn't hold. The price went to close the gap since last Friday. Today's price action was quite bearish. Unless we see some selling climax and decisive reverse at key level in last 30 minutes, tomorrow most likely can be another consolidation or even down day. I guess SP is not ready to break 1105, it might have to retrace one more time before it can get enough buying to challenge that level again.

At 3:18pm, there was a very nice reversal bar setup on 2 min chart. When it close down below 20 EMA (2min bar), it was good set up for short. I definitely missed this one trying to get a slightly better fill for I missed best entry level not being decisive enough to pull a trigger.
 
6-15-2010
Today was a surprise to me. I didn't expect such trend day. Anyway, due to my work schedule, I was not able to trade today. SPX closed above 200 MA and broke the 1102-1105 neckline previous seen as resistance. It looks that buying has been triggered at several higher time frame. The volume is not too solid today. I would expect some consolidation before the price challenges 50 DMA.
 
6-16-2010

total trades: 3 RTs (ES)
winner: 3
net p/l: 2.75 pts

Today was expected to be a consolidation day after yesterday's big rally.
I went short at 1109.75 at 11:28 seeing first attempt to retest yesterday's high got rejected. I covered at 1108.5 in 6 minutes.

I went short again at 1109.5 at 11:44am based on lower high and retrace from potential bullflag. I covered at 1109 shortly. The price did retrace all the way to touch the bottom of bullflag channel near 1108 at 11:48am.

I missed the breakout of bullflag. I can't trade from both directions now. I usually decide one direction to trade based a slightly large time frame price pattern.

I went short again at 1111 at 12:38pm based on mini double top with second lower high. Price dropped below 20 bar EMA (2 min) and had some difficulty to go back above it. I covered at 1110.

The bullflag breakout between 1:30 and 2 was nice run up though volume was not really there. It was exhausted at 1114.5 at 2pm. I had to go to a meeting from 2 to 3:45pm.

The last 30minutes running up to 1110-1111 50% center line of uptrend channel for the last 5 days ES movement (including AH) was probably MM to move it high to sell.

I guess there might be another thrust tomorrow for 2-4 pts above today's high before some meaningful retracement.
 
6/17/2010

total trades: 1
loser:1
net p/l: -1 pt
I was in meetings most time until after 3pm. I went short right before 3:30 rally. I got stopped out for 1 pt. The price moved so fast, I was not quick enough to jump on.


6-18-2010
total number of trades: 2 RTs (ES)
winner: 2
net p/l: 1.75 pts



Today was an option expiration for stock and index future. Based on yesterday's price action, I expected the 1115 could be revisited with a upthrust. Tight range and choppy action was also expected for option expiration day. Yesterday's last 30 minutes rally was the clue where the price would like to be settled.

After seeing the morning upthrust to 1116.5 and could not get above 1117.5 at yesterday early morning, I decided to go short whenever price gets to 1112-1114 range.

I went short at 1113. When the price dropped to 1110.50 at 12:30pm, I didn't take profit for I thought the 1109.5 would be tested for reasons:1. the backthrow at 12 after dropping below 1114 could not stay above it (weakness), 2. 12:15 was price falling below 20 bar EMA (2min) with slope pointing down. However, the price did touch the trendline and it was a reasonable place to cover short.

Price bounced back to 1112.5 and then dropped out of mini-demand line and EMA again. However, as it made higher low and approached trendline again, I covered at 1112 near 1:30pm thought it might be forming a bullflag.

I was not sure how I had a sell order activated when I was in a meeting. Price was not going anywhere. I took 0.75 pt at 4:06pm.

It looks like the price wanted to retest 200 DMA again. SPX could retrace to 1085-1090 in short term before it could gather momentum to break thru 50 DMA. Let's see on Monday.
 
6-21-2010

No trades today during day due to my busy work schedule.

Last Friday, I thought ES would not move beyond 1119-1121 before retracement. The Sunday night gapup did surprise me. Anything above 1121 would be a short play for me.
I went short at 1123 last night and covered at 1120 (my original target was 1117.5 the AH high on Thursday morning). The price hit 1106.25 in a few minutes after I covered.
I went short again at 1124 (double bottom breakout neckline and retest double top neckline at 1125). Based on the pattern, it looked like two leg up after breaking out of double bottom. The tentative short target would be 1126.5. Again, I entered short early at 1124. I didn't have stop for my trade for I just didn't believe that SPX would open above 1130 without back fill the gap. I got up in this morning and saw last night's rally of Euro was completely retraced back. I had feeling it was right on short side. I covered at 1122 after I got back to my desk at 11:25pm. While, the price retraced below 1105 (ES) in the afternoon session.

I see two likely possibilities here for tomorrow. 1. the retrace is not completed, it may test 200 EMA and 20 EMA near 1100 on SPX (1095-1096 on ES), 2. ES retest 1119-1120 again before next move.
 
6-23-2010
Total # of trades: 1 RT
winner: 1
net p/L: 5.75 pts

I was not able to trade yesterday due to work schedule. I have been watching market whenever I have chance and doing my own study preparing various trading scenario of short term.

SPX broke 200 DMA this morning. Yesterday's price pattern was not really implying bearish day for today. The morning down thrust was just one of the possible scenario after yesterday close at low. However, I did expect the market shout not spend too much time below 50% fib retrace level (~1088 on SPX and 1083-1084 on ES).

I went long at 1083.75. Price was forming a bull flag between 11 and 12:30. My profit target was near 1090 (measured move for bull flag pattern), which was also near yesterday's close. I exit at 1089.50 at 2:10 prior to FOMC rate decision at 2:15pm. The bulge to 1095 at 2:35 was probably due to some short squeeze. It came back as fast as it went up.

I expect 1097 and 1105 price level should be retested very soon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top