A mini ES scalper's journal

I found it a difficult day to trade. You had to be pro-active and really trust the trade to avoid getting shaken out.

Quote from ycxc16588:

I went long at 1085 at 12:42 (stop 1084 1 tick below the bounce bar's low at 1084.25). I got shaken out at 1084 exactly. Went long again at 1085 at 12:48. Momentum was good and I got out at 1086.50. Volume was ok and I could have hold it a little longer at least to previous swing high at 1087.50. However, overall, today's 2min price bars were kind of wide. So I was a bit nervous to take small profit before it disappear quickly.
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That was a tricky long entry, but I see the logic of it as a scalper, and I would've been out same price as you if it was my trade. It worked in the end nicely when a strong short signal on the 3-min chart sucked in the shorts, then forced them to cover with that surprise 12:51 bull bar. I'm wondering if you used the 5-min chart, would you have entered long when the 12:45 bar broke through the high of the 12:40 bar (long @ 1085.75). The 2- and 3-min chart was noisy, but the 5-min chart got you long at the right time and gave no reason to exit until price failed to test the high.

Quote from ycxc16588:

At 12:06, ES made new high at 3rd up push. I expected some retracement after 3 pushes.
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As a scalper, why didn't you short the 3rd push for the retracement that you expected? That's a high probability trade for retrace to the 20-EMA on the 3- or 5-min chart.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I found it a difficult day to trade. You had to be pro-active and really trust the trade to avoid getting shaken out.



That was a tricky long entry, but I see the logic of it as a scalper, and I would've been out same price as you if it was my trade. It worked in the end nicely when a strong short signal on the 3-min chart sucked in the shorts, then forced them to cover with that surprise 12:51 bull bar. I'm wondering if you used the 5-min chart, would you have entered long when the 12:45 bar broke through the high of the 12:40 bar (long @ 1085.75). The 2- and 3-min chart was noisy, but the 5-min chart got you long at the right time and gave no reason to exit until price failed to test the high.




As a scalper, why didn't you short the 3rd push for the retracement that you expected? That's a high probability trade for retrace to the 20-EMA on the 3- or 5-min chart.
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I usually use 2 min chart to figure out my entry and stop. I've noticed that there were many overlaps on 2 min bar. Overall, today was a choppy day, which was expected after Friday's movement.
I guess buying 1085.75 was ok, but I would have to set stop at 1084.25. Intuitively, I thought I could get slightly better fill at 1085 if I was patient. Judging by the tape, I didn't expect a runaway price motion starting from that point. (another thing I've noticed was down bar vol was not very low, therefore nether buyer nor seller had significant power over each other).


I had to go to a meeting at 1pm EST and was away from my desk until 3pm.

Frankly, I would not short at 1pm for several reasons,
1. My plan for the today was to trade from long side during congestion.
2. a trend line support was not far away below 1pm swing high.
3. If I were going to short, I would wait for trendline break and a throwback above MA then falling below it.

Some other things I have been experiencing is I found it is difficult for me to go long at one minute and then short in another minute. Most time, a market will present opportunities for both long and short and I figured I would probably do better just doing one side based on my day trading history.

Ultimately what we eventually face is still how to cut loss short and hold winners for maximum profits.

Thanks.
 
5-25-2010
No trades today.
I have been in meetings from 12 noon to 3:45PM EST.

Last Friday, the low was made at open and there was sharp reverse within 30 minutes from open. Buyers were managed to hold the consolidation zone yesterday until last 30 minutes hard selloff yesterday. Although price made new low at AH and early this morning, buyers were patient today and price formed a round bottom consolidation, which looked good to bulls. I would expect intermediate term down trend has probably ended today.
 
5-26-2010
Total trades: 2RTs (ES)
winner: 1
wash: 1
net p/l: 1.25 pts

I started at 11:45. The 2 min bar have been choppy ( 2-3 pts swing between high and low).
I wanted to go long at 12:15, 12:30 with price breaking down trend channel with throwbacks. However, price moved a bit too fast for me and my limit order didn't get filled. I've decided not to chase it since these bars had relatively wide range and I didn't want to use large stops.

I went long at 1082.5 at 1:19 (stop 81.5). There was brief moment that I could have taken profit at 1083-1083.25. I wanted to give it a little more time to see if it would break 1084. I exit it at same price at 1:24pm.

I re-entered long at 1083 at 1:28pm expecting it would break the triangle consolidation soon. Originally I set my profit target at 1086 (23% fib level between open high and 11:45 low. I took profit short at 1084.25 (I had some gut feeling that my profit could disappear any moment for the price move was a bit too choppy today). It was my problem that I failed to hold the winner just a bit longer.

It was good down move after 2:10 when SPX broke the triangle. I didn't play short today since it was not in my plan for today. I guess the selling might be due to weakness in EURO at later the day. 1165.95 is 50% retrace level from 1040.78 to 1091.11 on SPX.
 
5-27-2010
Total trades: 5 RTs (ES)
winner: 2
loser: 3

net p/l: -0.75 pt

I went long at 1091.5 at 12:48 (stop 1090.5) seeing 2 min bars were making HH & HL. The price broke the mini-supply line briefly (92.25),It was failed breakout, next bar made lower high. I got stopped out for 1 pt loss. In retrospect, I could probably have done better exit a little early with 0.5 pt loss.

At 12:56, I went long again at 1091.25. I was a bit annoyed by last trade. I got stopped out at exact low of the bar. I tried to use kind of mental stop here for the second trade. Again, the trade turned into profitable momentarily, and price started to drop back where I entered. Then I was interrupted by my colleague. When I came back to my screen, I took market exit at 1089. For the second trade, I was supposed to put stop loss at 1090.5 again.

At 1:06, price touched 50% retrace from morning high 94.75. It was also the trend line drawn from 8:45 to 10am swing low. It bounced immediately, the tape looked good to me. I entered long at 1089.25 (stop 1088.25) at 1:14. My original profit target was 1092. Again I was out at 1091.25.

I went to a meeting from 2 to 3pm. At 3:06, I went long at 95.5 and stopped out at 94.5. At 3:12pm, re-enter long at 1095.5 (stop 1094.5) for 4th attempt to breakout from bullflag. I took profit at 1097.

3:26 was two leg shakeout. 3:15 to 3:45 were mini cup and handle. I didn't trade after my fifth trade.
 
5-28-2010
No trades today for I have been in meeting from 9am to 12:30pm pacific time.

After yesterday's big rally, I expected some consolidation today. ES retraced inside an up channel since 5/25 pre-market swing low.
If I could have traded between 12 to 3:30 pm. I would probably go long at 1092.5-1093 (stop 1091.75) between 3:04-3:08pm as breaking out of down trend channel with throwback. The 2min bar became compressed and it was good entry with reasonable stop. The best scenario I would probably hold until 1095-1095.5.

The price was moving in such a way to shake out weak hands and trap shorts before it moves higher since I feel 1130/1150 could be retested soon.
 
6-1-2010
Total number of trades: 5 RTs (ES)
Winner: 3
loser: 2
net p/l: -1.5 pts

Long at 1084.50 (stop 1083.50) at 11:54am, it was 62% retrace and micro-supply line break. Stopped out at next 2 min bar. Re-enter at 1084 and out at 1084.75.

went to meeting from 12:15 to 1:30.

Long 1089 at 1:56am though that 38% retrace and the resistance at 12:45 at 1088.75 would provide support for retest intraday high. I didn't use hard stop. which was a mistake. I got out at 3 pts loss at retest 50% fib level at 1086. The paper loss at one moment was actually more than 5 pts. Technically, I didn't wait for confirmation bar to enter the trade, but entered the trade purely based on personal anticipation.

Between 2:30 and 2:50, I did two scalping for 1.75 pts. I felt bull lost control. Since I was probably already over traded for the day. I didn't trade for the rest of the day.

at 2pm, price broke the symmetric triangle. At 3:15, price broke the descending triangle. 3:35 was a throwback with reverse bar. These were good short setups. The last 20 minutes selloff was quite intense. I didn't expect it.
 
6-2-2010
Total trades: 4 RTs (ES)
loser: 3
wash: 1

net p/l: -1.75 pts

I went long between 1:30 and 1:50pm. I got stopped out 3 times. It could be my stop were too tight (1 pt largest stop), or I expect some large move from breakout. Although all 4 trades had potential profit 0.25-0.75 pts before the stop got hit, I decided to wait for big move. Apparently my entry was not at right time.

Today, most 2 min bars were reasonably tight. It looked like trend day by mid-day.

At 1:45pm, what I read about the market was either it was forming a second down leg of the bull flag, or HS. I had to go to meeting at 2pm.

I came back from meeting at 3:40pm. A failed break from HS had trapped shorts and break out of the bull flag was powerful.

In my opinion, it was a clear trend day. There was no point to go short at last hour. In the past, If I missed long, I would think of going short to catch something. It was emotional thing in itself. I probably have passed that point by planning to trade one side for a particular day. If my plan doesn't work, I will just stop and stay sideline since I am not experienced enough to trade from both side actively for day trading. It might limit the potential to make money, it most likely helped me to avoid more loss due to overtrading or getting emotional trying to make back or breakeven. I will incorporate it as my trading plan.

1097 was 1.618 extension from 9:45am intraday low to 1pm intraday high. Purely amazing.

There are two things I am trying to work on, 1. Focus on trade setup instead of money, 2. try to treat each trade as independent from previous one. These are trader's psychological things.
 
Quote from ycxc16588:

There are two things I am trying to work on, 1. Focus on trade setup instead of money, 2. try to treat each trade as independent from previous one. These are trader's psychological things.
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Coming up on 2 years day trading, this is still a huge struggle for me. Lately with the more volatile price action, I've hesitated to take trades because my stop would be "too wide". The setup is very valid, but I let the $$ factor keep me out.

As for the danger of not treating each trade as brand new, it can be extremely expensive.

Today I had several scratch trades mainly from moving my stops to b/e too quickly instead of trusting that my target would be lifted. So I left several hundred dollars on the table. I then took a mediocre setup (out of frustration, wanting to get back what I left behind) and allowed that trade to ride without moving the initial stop and guess what? That stop was hit.

Finally, I trade a truly excellent setup with confluence from all angles. On a scale of 1 to 10, this setup was a 9. I set an initial target and leave my stop in place. Price comes within 3 ticks of my target and pivots, so I exit for what I consider a very decent profit. Technically there is no reason whatsoever for me to exit the trade. No technical reason at all. I exit it because my formerly red P/L is now green. Price moved another .85 ($850) from my exit point. Had I simply trailed a stop above each bar's high, I'd have walked away with $610 of that additional move.

You have to write down the rules and repeat them every day, I think. I believed I had these issues under control and now they creep back in based on varying market conditions.

Best of luck to you on that!
 
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