A mini ES scalper's journal
- Thread starter ycxc16588
- Start date
This probably is debatable since it would depend on individual's trading style, experience, and tolerance to adversity. However, my understanding about trading is minimizing risk is No. 1 priority for successful traders, at least for small traders. How can I protect winner from turning into loser? I can think of two things at the moment, 1. work on the entry; 2. develope re-entry plans especially when market confirms your original judgement.
03-31-2010
SPX is forming a symmetric triangle since Mar 25. It was the 3rd touch of the up triangle today.
The retest intraday high on ES shortly after 2pm was on low vol and could not get 1 tick above lunch high. The breakdown at 1168.50 was alarming to bulls. 1168.5 was supported beore the retest of high. 1168.5 was also the 23% fib retrace. Once the price broke down the necklin eof DT. it didn't even tried to throwback to retest the neckline. 50% fib could not provide support to the falling price. However, price found support at bottom of the symmetric triangle at 1167 on SPX.
The triangle breakout to upside is still valid scenario.
SPX is forming a symmetric triangle since Mar 25. It was the 3rd touch of the up triangle today.
The retest intraday high on ES shortly after 2pm was on low vol and could not get 1 tick above lunch high. The breakdown at 1168.50 was alarming to bulls. 1168.5 was supported beore the retest of high. 1168.5 was also the 23% fib retrace. Once the price broke down the necklin eof DT. it didn't even tried to throwback to retest the neckline. 50% fib could not provide support to the falling price. However, price found support at bottom of the symmetric triangle at 1167 on SPX.
The triangle breakout to upside is still valid scenario.
4-1-2010
total trades: 2RTs
wiinner: 1
loser: 1
net p/l: 0.5 pt
Today NAZ is out of synch with SPX and DOW. DOW is slightly lagging compared to SPX.
I went long at 1174.25 (stop 1173.00 on etick below recent swing low) around 12:50pm for potential breakout from the triangle consolidation. Tape showed that some support at 1173.5. At 1:30, I've moved my stop to 1173.25. 1:30 breakout (3rd attempt) failed on very low vol. Another thing which didn't look right in retrospect was the breakout was too late and it was at apexx of the triangle. The breakdown was quite rapid. I got out at 1173.50 and my stop was triggered (1173.25) almost at same time. I was holding a reverse position. I covered prematurely at 1172 the bottom of open range.
The sudden increase of vol when price broke down and the speed of teh movement implied more down side move. The move was probably engineered by market maker taking advantage of low vol before long weekend lacking participation of institution/commercials. It was nice two leg measured move to close the open gap. ( I had to leave my desk at 2:30 EST). It settled near the level of triangle apex. Vol was ok at close.
I suspect that SPX would retest 1180 the 3rd time soon (probably early next week).
total trades: 2RTs
wiinner: 1
loser: 1
net p/l: 0.5 pt
Today NAZ is out of synch with SPX and DOW. DOW is slightly lagging compared to SPX.
I went long at 1174.25 (stop 1173.00 on etick below recent swing low) around 12:50pm for potential breakout from the triangle consolidation. Tape showed that some support at 1173.5. At 1:30, I've moved my stop to 1173.25. 1:30 breakout (3rd attempt) failed on very low vol. Another thing which didn't look right in retrospect was the breakout was too late and it was at apexx of the triangle. The breakdown was quite rapid. I got out at 1173.50 and my stop was triggered (1173.25) almost at same time. I was holding a reverse position. I covered prematurely at 1172 the bottom of open range.
The sudden increase of vol when price broke down and the speed of teh movement implied more down side move. The move was probably engineered by market maker taking advantage of low vol before long weekend lacking participation of institution/commercials. It was nice two leg measured move to close the open gap. ( I had to leave my desk at 2:30 EST). It settled near the level of triangle apex. Vol was ok at close.
I suspect that SPX would retest 1180 the 3rd time soon (probably early next week).
4-5-2010
total trades: 1 RT
winner: 1
net p/l: 0.75
I got my desk at 11:20. I went long at 1182.50 (stop 1181.50 1 tick below recent swing low) at 11:42pm after seeing price bounce from 20 bar 5 min EMA. It was also 23.6% retrace from high. The retrace was still less than 2.5 pt which is a typical shallow retrace of a trend day. I got out at 1183.25 seeing strong resistance at 1183.50.
I was planning to go long above intraday high 1183.75 when price breaks tight rectangle consolidation. However, the vol was not there. After attempting to break 1183.5 four times and could not get thru. I felt there was not likely a big move at the rest of the day. There was some strong buying at 1181.50. Buyers have been persistant, but big money is not in a rush to push it much higher. Another observation was that SPX challenged intraday high at 2:45pm without DOW confirming.
DOW is lagging from SPX. This is a sign that there is still some potential up movement in coming days.
total trades: 1 RT
winner: 1
net p/l: 0.75
I got my desk at 11:20. I went long at 1182.50 (stop 1181.50 1 tick below recent swing low) at 11:42pm after seeing price bounce from 20 bar 5 min EMA. It was also 23.6% retrace from high. The retrace was still less than 2.5 pt which is a typical shallow retrace of a trend day. I got out at 1183.25 seeing strong resistance at 1183.50.
I was planning to go long above intraday high 1183.75 when price breaks tight rectangle consolidation. However, the vol was not there. After attempting to break 1183.5 four times and could not get thru. I felt there was not likely a big move at the rest of the day. There was some strong buying at 1181.50. Buyers have been persistant, but big money is not in a rush to push it much higher. Another observation was that SPX challenged intraday high at 2:45pm without DOW confirming.
DOW is lagging from SPX. This is a sign that there is still some potential up movement in coming days.
4-6-2010
total trades: 2RTs
winner: 1 ( 6 ticks of YM)
loser: 1 (0.75pt of ES)
SPX retested yesterday's high and did a shallow retrace before FOMC. DOW was lagging again.
I went long ES at 12pm based on first bounce from 20 bar of 5min EMA. It failed to retest intraday high. I was stopped out with 0.75 pt loss (stop at 1 tick below 20 bar 5 min EMA).
I had to go to meeting at 1pm EST. According to my trading rule, I didn't initiate any trades until 30 min after FOMC announcement at 2:15pm EST. SPX broke out of ascending triangle at 2pm with good vol.
I coud not get good measured target for ES to short (no reference pt) after SPX broke 1190. However, I used 10927 as reference pt to short YM besides DOW has been lagging SPX. ES was rejected at 1188. I got a fill at 11925 for YM. My original stop was 15 ticks above 11925 (DOW at 11000). I covered at 10919 at 3pm for I have to go to another meeting and could not monitor my trade.
ES made a throwback to 1184.50 as classic TA text book move. There was no serious selling today.
total trades: 2RTs
winner: 1 ( 6 ticks of YM)
loser: 1 (0.75pt of ES)
SPX retested yesterday's high and did a shallow retrace before FOMC. DOW was lagging again.
I went long ES at 12pm based on first bounce from 20 bar of 5min EMA. It failed to retest intraday high. I was stopped out with 0.75 pt loss (stop at 1 tick below 20 bar 5 min EMA).
I had to go to meeting at 1pm EST. According to my trading rule, I didn't initiate any trades until 30 min after FOMC announcement at 2:15pm EST. SPX broke out of ascending triangle at 2pm with good vol.
I coud not get good measured target for ES to short (no reference pt) after SPX broke 1190. However, I used 10927 as reference pt to short YM besides DOW has been lagging SPX. ES was rejected at 1188. I got a fill at 11925 for YM. My original stop was 15 ticks above 11925 (DOW at 11000). I covered at 10919 at 3pm for I have to go to another meeting and could not monitor my trade.
ES made a throwback to 1184.50 as classic TA text book move. There was no serious selling today.
4-7-2010
total trades: 4 RTs
winner: 3
loser: 1
nert p/l: -1.25 pts
I've done something drastically different from what I would typically do today for one losing trade which wiped out all gains from winning trades.
I went short at 11:57 seeing no vol for price to break the supply line. I covered for 1.25 pts gain after 30 minutes seeing no immediate breakdown below 50% fib (9:30 to 11 price range), which was the support at open range. At 12:55, price broke the supply line with inverted HS pattern.
I went short at 1:30 seeing two legs up with vol spike and exhausted buying after 1186. I shorted again a t 2:18 as price broke the bearflag. I covered both shorts too prematurely.
The 4 th trade was long at 1180 at 2:45 expecting retest intraday low would hold. I made two mistakes, 1. there was no reverse bar on 5 min chart as price testing intraday low, 2. I didn't set loss stop ( at the moment I had 2.25 points gain). The real problem was I didn't realy metally prepare for the breakdown of support scenario. There was no plan!
Price breaking down 1178 triggered some panic selling. Price moved fairly fast. Based on price action, I made my plan, 1. I used 200 USD as max loss I would take, 2. watch for 1174 for bounce (I used 12 pt daily range from 1186 intraday high to measure the potential daily swing low level). My original exit point was 1178 since I expect the bbounce would retest breakdown point. After seeing $tick extreme at -1300, I was convinced the selling was over, but was not sure exactly where the price would bounce back to. However, I could not completely stick to my plan and exit at 1176 at 3:30.
VIX was green and broke down trend line at 2:26pm and then a bull flag at 3pm. I didn't pay attention to this one.
^TNX backed off 4% for 2 days and closed at low by 3pm. What is the implication on index price for last hour if bond close at low by 3pm?
I didn't re-enter after 2:30 although price action confirmed my bouncing scenario due to time constrain. I wanted to limit my daily trades to be less than 5. I would enter 5 th trade only if I am net profit is positive. There was tempertation to make even for the day. I want to control my emotion not to try to get even with market. Another new rule I was going to implement is I would stop trading any day if my first 3 trades are all losers for that day.
Another thing I am trying to change is to stay away from scalping a few ticks and instead to go for trades with substantial potential movements with further limit my daily trades to no more than 3. I started realizing it would be overtrade for me if I trade more than 5 times any day.
total trades: 4 RTs
winner: 3
loser: 1
nert p/l: -1.25 pts
I've done something drastically different from what I would typically do today for one losing trade which wiped out all gains from winning trades.
I went short at 11:57 seeing no vol for price to break the supply line. I covered for 1.25 pts gain after 30 minutes seeing no immediate breakdown below 50% fib (9:30 to 11 price range), which was the support at open range. At 12:55, price broke the supply line with inverted HS pattern.
I went short at 1:30 seeing two legs up with vol spike and exhausted buying after 1186. I shorted again a t 2:18 as price broke the bearflag. I covered both shorts too prematurely.
The 4 th trade was long at 1180 at 2:45 expecting retest intraday low would hold. I made two mistakes, 1. there was no reverse bar on 5 min chart as price testing intraday low, 2. I didn't set loss stop ( at the moment I had 2.25 points gain). The real problem was I didn't realy metally prepare for the breakdown of support scenario. There was no plan!
Price breaking down 1178 triggered some panic selling. Price moved fairly fast. Based on price action, I made my plan, 1. I used 200 USD as max loss I would take, 2. watch for 1174 for bounce (I used 12 pt daily range from 1186 intraday high to measure the potential daily swing low level). My original exit point was 1178 since I expect the bbounce would retest breakdown point. After seeing $tick extreme at -1300, I was convinced the selling was over, but was not sure exactly where the price would bounce back to. However, I could not completely stick to my plan and exit at 1176 at 3:30.
VIX was green and broke down trend line at 2:26pm and then a bull flag at 3pm. I didn't pay attention to this one.
^TNX backed off 4% for 2 days and closed at low by 3pm. What is the implication on index price for last hour if bond close at low by 3pm?
I didn't re-enter after 2:30 although price action confirmed my bouncing scenario due to time constrain. I wanted to limit my daily trades to be less than 5. I would enter 5 th trade only if I am net profit is positive. There was tempertation to make even for the day. I want to control my emotion not to try to get even with market. Another new rule I was going to implement is I would stop trading any day if my first 3 trades are all losers for that day.
Another thing I am trying to change is to stay away from scalping a few ticks and instead to go for trades with substantial potential movements with further limit my daily trades to no more than 3. I started realizing it would be overtrade for me if I trade more than 5 times any day.
4-8-2010
Total trades: 3RTs
winner: 1
loser:2
net p/l: -0.75
Today is a nice trend day. Yesterday's last 30 minutes price action did give some hint.
Today is completely opposite to yesterday. VIX was red, $tick went above 1000 twice. ^TNX was green. These sentimental indicators were favorable to long.
I came up with two scenarios last night for today's action. I am using SPX's price level here.
HS breakdown with throwback retest the neckline at yesterday's close.
1) price trade above yesterday's close into 1183-1188 reistance zone.
2) price goes down after throwback to make a measurement to 1174-1175.
Today's SPX opened low and made move to 1175. Found good support. Price broke open range 1178 to upside was bullish. A second leg after a bullflag between 1179-1180 to close above yesterday's close was busllish again.
Vol has been high since 11:30 on breakouts. I could not find good retrace to go long.
I went short at 2:30 seeing divergence between tick and price. the second retest at 1183.5 (ES) was with lower vol. I got stopped out shortly with a ascending triangle/Cup&handle breakout.
I went short again at 1183.5 at 2:46pm. Covered at 1182.75 several minutes before close. Other reasons that I went short near 1185 were 1. $tick spike above 1000 at the time, 2. at 1185 high, the daily price range was 14 points from 1171 swing low. I thought upside would be limited after 12.5 pts move daily range.
Apparently, shorting today is on the wrong side and turns out not profitable. There were no decent retracement for the entire day(<2.5pts). Establishing short to position for tomorrow's price move is another story, which would be irrelavent to day trading.
Tomorrow's possible scenario
1. SPX throwback to 1185 and then break above 1188.5 (this is not so bullish)
2. SPX retrace to 1183 and bounce. This could be very bullish as an inverted HS pattern. Once it breaks 1188.5 resistance line again, it will definitely retest 1192 high again.
3. breaking 1183 support could be bearish.
Total trades: 3RTs
winner: 1
loser:2
net p/l: -0.75
Today is a nice trend day. Yesterday's last 30 minutes price action did give some hint.
Today is completely opposite to yesterday. VIX was red, $tick went above 1000 twice. ^TNX was green. These sentimental indicators were favorable to long.
I came up with two scenarios last night for today's action. I am using SPX's price level here.
HS breakdown with throwback retest the neckline at yesterday's close.
1) price trade above yesterday's close into 1183-1188 reistance zone.
2) price goes down after throwback to make a measurement to 1174-1175.
Today's SPX opened low and made move to 1175. Found good support. Price broke open range 1178 to upside was bullish. A second leg after a bullflag between 1179-1180 to close above yesterday's close was busllish again.
Vol has been high since 11:30 on breakouts. I could not find good retrace to go long.
I went short at 2:30 seeing divergence between tick and price. the second retest at 1183.5 (ES) was with lower vol. I got stopped out shortly with a ascending triangle/Cup&handle breakout.
I went short again at 1183.5 at 2:46pm. Covered at 1182.75 several minutes before close. Other reasons that I went short near 1185 were 1. $tick spike above 1000 at the time, 2. at 1185 high, the daily price range was 14 points from 1171 swing low. I thought upside would be limited after 12.5 pts move daily range.
Apparently, shorting today is on the wrong side and turns out not profitable. There were no decent retracement for the entire day(<2.5pts). Establishing short to position for tomorrow's price move is another story, which would be irrelavent to day trading.
Tomorrow's possible scenario
1. SPX throwback to 1185 and then break above 1188.5 (this is not so bullish)
2. SPX retrace to 1183 and bounce. This could be very bullish as an inverted HS pattern. Once it breaks 1188.5 resistance line again, it will definitely retest 1192 high again.
3. breaking 1183 support could be bearish.
4-9-2010
tota trades: 4RTs
winner: 1
loser: 3
net p/l: -1.75pts
Today's open range till 11am was a symmetric triangle. Price broke out and retested 1188 high successfully with 3 ticks. It looked weak at 12 after second retest intraday high. I shorted at 1188.25 (stop 1189.25) at 12pm. The price stayed 1187.75-1188.25 for wgile and then it went 1188.75 the 3rd time, but got rejected quicky without any vol interest. I covered at 1186.75 (after breaking neckine 1187.50). I had to go to a few meetings at 1pm EST.
Price dropped to 1185 twice before 2pm. 1185 was 62% fib from intraday extremes. It is wel above yesterday's close. This was a bulish sign.
I went short after 3:30 trying to pick up tops. I was stopped out 3 times.
What were the mistakes?
1. at 3:28, price broke out less steeper mini supply line with increased vol. hint of upside move. This was the place I usuay would go long for the 3rd retest of intraday high. NAZDAQ breakout first at 3:28 thru intraday high. This was some hint there.
2. there was a quick shakeoff at 3:34 on 2min bar, a bear trap. next bar immediatey moved up and broke 1188.75. This was the pace to immediatey take a loss if wrong side or immediately reverse.
3. after 3:34 breakout 1188.75, next bar didn't go below 1188.75. Vol dip and then pick up. Price continued to go up. I ignored all these price action and still were trying to re-short without any confirmation of price weakness. 3:54 the reverse failed again.
Another observation to help to anticipate the magnitude of the breakout.
1. 3.25 pt from early high to the bottom of mid-day consolidation (1188.75-1185). Therefore, the breakout from 1188.27 could go to 1192. or use the first up leg, whichh would give similar value.
2. Today's rprice range was 7.75 from 1188.75 to 1181 before breakout. 10-12 would be normal daily range. This would give 3-4 pts above 1188.75.
In general, there was nothing wrong to fade a breakout. however, cautions are 1. you have to be extremely skillful and nimble, 2. completely emotionless with accurate price target forecast. Apparently I was trying to get back with my loss with emotions today.
My recent trading performance has been extremely poor. I have been trying to adjust my trading styles by incorpating certain things in addition to pure price action. I realized sometimes they don't really help since I formed cretain opinion based on these things and could no longer see price action in a objective way.
tota trades: 4RTs
winner: 1
loser: 3
net p/l: -1.75pts
Today's open range till 11am was a symmetric triangle. Price broke out and retested 1188 high successfully with 3 ticks. It looked weak at 12 after second retest intraday high. I shorted at 1188.25 (stop 1189.25) at 12pm. The price stayed 1187.75-1188.25 for wgile and then it went 1188.75 the 3rd time, but got rejected quicky without any vol interest. I covered at 1186.75 (after breaking neckine 1187.50). I had to go to a few meetings at 1pm EST.
Price dropped to 1185 twice before 2pm. 1185 was 62% fib from intraday extremes. It is wel above yesterday's close. This was a bulish sign.
I went short after 3:30 trying to pick up tops. I was stopped out 3 times.
What were the mistakes?
1. at 3:28, price broke out less steeper mini supply line with increased vol. hint of upside move. This was the place I usuay would go long for the 3rd retest of intraday high. NAZDAQ breakout first at 3:28 thru intraday high. This was some hint there.
2. there was a quick shakeoff at 3:34 on 2min bar, a bear trap. next bar immediatey moved up and broke 1188.75. This was the pace to immediatey take a loss if wrong side or immediately reverse.
3. after 3:34 breakout 1188.75, next bar didn't go below 1188.75. Vol dip and then pick up. Price continued to go up. I ignored all these price action and still were trying to re-short without any confirmation of price weakness. 3:54 the reverse failed again.
Another observation to help to anticipate the magnitude of the breakout.
1. 3.25 pt from early high to the bottom of mid-day consolidation (1188.75-1185). Therefore, the breakout from 1188.27 could go to 1192. or use the first up leg, whichh would give similar value.
2. Today's rprice range was 7.75 from 1188.75 to 1181 before breakout. 10-12 would be normal daily range. This would give 3-4 pts above 1188.75.
In general, there was nothing wrong to fade a breakout. however, cautions are 1. you have to be extremely skillful and nimble, 2. completely emotionless with accurate price target forecast. Apparently I was trying to get back with my loss with emotions today.
My recent trading performance has been extremely poor. I have been trying to adjust my trading styles by incorpating certain things in addition to pure price action. I realized sometimes they don't really help since I formed cretain opinion based on these things and could no longer see price action in a objective way.
I'm still struggling with fully trusting price action and letting my own thinking interfere with doing the right thing. I thought I'd overcome my greatest hurdles, but this one is holding me back from reaching the next level.
As an example, yesterday I saw CL (oil) in a gradual downtrend in pre-market and so I looked to take short entries as long as the trend remained intact. I had 8 trades where I scalped tiny profits by trailing stops too close instead of just trusting both the trend and my targets (which were based on very common price action patterns). The last of these 8 trades was a short after price had already fallen a lot, and I was stopped out b/e, then in frustration I didn't get right back in when it was clear that the setup was intact and it was just a little head fake. Why didn't I get right back in? Because I decided price was way to low to short and I'd be churning my profits; if anything I should start considering long entries. That was my "thinking" self telling me that. I watched as price fell right through my target without me and pushed even lower.
I took a break, cleared my head, reminded myself to take every setup. Returned to find price had gone even much lower than I anticipated. Now it was trading nearly 70 ticks from where my last short was scratched, from where I thought it was too low to get back in.
I saw another short setup, but I started thinking of why I shouldn't take the trade: price had already had 6 pushes down in the trend since pre-market and was 70 ticks from where I last thought it would reverse. SURELY it would reverse now. I then stopped myself, pulled the trigger, put in a stop and a target, and refused to touch my platform until one or the other was hit. My target was hit for my best profit of the day.
Price quickly moved back to where I entered that short and the pivot low near where I covered had formed a double bottom. But price had formed an internal double top as well, and was ranging narrowly but drifting a couple ticks lower in the range. I actually had time for one more trade before I had to leave, and the slightly lower high was a valid short setup placing me in at the same entry price as that last successful trade. The target would be a possible breakdown of the double bottom. I decided no it wouldn't go lower and why waste my profits. A couple minutes later, it broke down and within 15 minutes fell 70 more ticks from where I'd been about to enter.
The trend truly is your friend until it ends. Milk it for all you can!