A mini ES scalper's journal

3-8-2010
My plan was to buy the retrace and wait for breakout especially when price is moving above he 50% fib line defined by open extremes. What I've read from $tick data was that sellers were not extremely aggressive today. However, the VIX was green, which implied that the upside breakout might not be very likely today. Buyers should be aware such implication.
 
3-9-2010
Total trades: 5 RTS
winner: 1
loser: 4
net p/l: -3.0 pts

Short at 1pm at 1144.25, price was flat, got out at 1144.50 before the stop run up to 1145.25.
Immediately reshort at 1144.50 at 1:30pm after stop run, covered at 1144 (too early).
Short at 1143.5, covered at 1143.75 as price broke the mini supply line. That was retest intraday high. Went long for retest of intraday high, but again fail to take profit or exit before it failed. My stop was set at 1142.75, 1 tick below the DT neckline. That was -1.5 pt loss.

Long again at 2:45pm at 1142.50 expecting 23.6% fib line support. Price quickly drop to 1140.25. It was first leg. I already made a mistake by not getting out quickly. It was potential 2.5 pts loss. Got out at 1141 as the price broke teh support line of the bearflag.

1136.5 was climax vol with measured second leg. Hesitated, missed the 1136.75-1137 entry. 1138.25 (50% fib) 1140 (38% fib), and 1141 the 20bar 5 min EMA. These were potential target.

I noticed that for teh last few trading session I failed to cut loss quickly and take the profit when it was given to me.
 
3-10-2010
total trades: 3 RTS
winner: 3
net p/l: 2 pts

ES openned slightly above yesterday's close. Nothing was exciting. It went up to retest yesterday's intraday high and reverse to retest yesterday's close 1139.50. The price movement was fairly symmetric both in price and time. 1139.5 was the low of the day based on price action (quick rejection).
I went long three times between 12:30 to 1:45 pm EST (I was able to be at my desk).
My first long was at 1140.5 after seeing the stop run/strong support at 1139.50. I failed to hold the position a little longer in order to take more gains though the entries were fairly reasonable.
The up move since 12:30 was quite choppy with large swings within a nice channel.
I basically used fib, 20 bar MA, and micro-trend line to identify the end of pullback before up move resumed.
Large price pattern show ABC three legs (A up, B down, C up) with almost identical price range.
I thought the price would close in the middle of day's range, but it managed to stay above 1/3 of teh daily range. The close was at the bottom of the afternoon up trend lines. It looked like a throwback retest trend line after the price broke down at 3:30.

I would expect some more consolidation or slight pull back before break the jan high to be healthy bullish move. The quick break above the Jan high (say tomorrow morning) could lead to some big pullback to retest around 1125 the long term trendline.
 
3-11-2010
Total trades: 6 RTs
winner: 4
loser: 2
net p/L: 0.5pt
Started at 1pm ET

made a wrong order and immediately covered at market order for 0.25 pt loss.

Today's price pattern was an ascending triangle. Afternoon price was above the 50% fib level defined by extremes from open until 11am.

went short at 1:38 after seeing up thrust failed to break the resistance. I was trapped and stopped out at 1145.25 for one pt loss.

1:45 both YM and ES met with a restsance line drawn from yesterday's intraday highs. Since the first attempt to retest intraday high failed, went short at 1145.25 (stop 1146.0, original target 1143.5 at 38% retrace), covered at 1144.

At 2:38, went long when price gap up 20 bar EMA (2 min), took a small profit as seeing price could be developing a bear flag to retest the bottom of ascending triangle line.

Based on the tape, it looked more like a small bull flag near 3pm. Price bounced at 20 bar EMA on both 2min & 5 min chart. I missed the breakout of mini supply line. I wanted to get in at 1144.5-1144.75, but price moved so fast. I didn't expect the 3rd attempt at resistance line would break it. However, the vol suddenly picked up after dried vol during middle of the day. the breakout was quite violent probably also due to large amount stops at intraday high.

Short again as price fall below 1148 after the breakout (LBR's turtle soup setup). Shorted at 1147.5 and took a small gain seeing no sign of selling.

Today's mistake was failed to trade the classic breakout from ascending triangle. There were moments I had opportunity to enter 1144.5-1144.75, but hesitated. With sudden spike of vol, 1145-1145.25 would also be low risk entry range.
 
3-15-2010
No trade last Friday due to my work schedule.

Today I was able to trade from 2-4pm EST.
Total trades: 1 RT (ESM10)
winner: 1
net p/l: 1.25 pts
The selling stopped shortly before 11:30 at climax vol. Pirce has retraced 50% of the range defined by extremes prior to 11:30.
At 2:30pm, the price seemed to break below the up retrace channel, which made the entire retrace looked like a bearflag. However, there was no follow thru selling. Around 2:40m, it broke the mini supply line. It actually formed a mini bull flag from 2:00 to 2:40.
Went long at 1139.25 (stop 1138.5, original target 1141.75 one tick below 1142 61.8% retrace). The price broke 1139.50 bull flag supply line at 2:42pm. 1139.50 was 20 bar EMA for both 5min and 2 min. Exit at 1140.5 as price seeing some resistanec at neckline 1141 (50% fib).
Price was hugging teh top of the retracement channel from 2:50 to 3:15. It touched 20bar EMA (2min) at 1141, which is also the 50% fib before resumed the second up leg. I didn't catch the second leg.

VIX is up fairly big today, but three major US indices managed to recover most early loss at least until 3:40pm. Peopel say when the price can retrace beyond 78%, it probably would retrace all the way to 100%. It did today.
 
3-16-2010
Total trades: 7 RTs (ESM100
winner: 2
loser: 5
net p/l: 0.5 pt


Today is FOMC day. I expected some volatility at 2:15. My trading rules are not to trade 30 min prior to 2:15 announcement and not to trade 30 min after announcement until 2:45.

Toay's SPX open was quite bullish. Vol was dry after 11:30am. The pullback since 11:30 was on low vol and flat slope. The selling was not convincing. I went long several times at 38% and 50% fib levels, but got stopped out everytime.

At 2:38, I saw good support at 1150 snd went long (violation of my no trading 30 min after 2:15 on FOMC day rule). I got stopped out at 1148.50 exact low at 2:45pm. Great job MMs.
It was a classic stop run to me. Reeneter at 1150, out at 1152.50. Enter at 1152.25 on pullback and out at 1153.75.
I didn't play for the 3rd leg up though close at high was very likely. SPX is aiming at 1160 now.

There were two times today that I was tempted to double my position. One was after 1148.5 stop run, another was at 3:12pm, the pullback at dried up vol. How to press the winner is a critical skill any serious trader should strive to master.
 
3-17-2010
Total trades: 4 RTs
winner: 2
loser 2
net p/l: -0.75 pt

staretd at 12pm EST
The price was forming the second bull flag. The first one had 3 pt retracement. Both the first and second up legs had 4 pts move.
Long at 12:30 at 1161.5 for the breakout. The up move was steady and I expected acceleration after retesting intraday high at 1162.5. My original target was 1164 for the 3rd leg up with equal measurement. Closed at 1162 since I was called to a meeting at 1:10pm. I didn't wnt to leave any trade unintended.

Some selling after 2:30 as SPX made first touch at 1169.84 (almost 1170). The selling vol was not particularly high. went long after second down leg touched 62% retrace. Long at 1161 (stop 1159, target 1163). 1159 was 78% retrace. The second selling leg didn't have climax vol. The 3rd one was very likely at least as a retest.
Based on my tape reading, I went long at 1158.75 feeling selling was probably over for the day. Exit at 1160 teh first resistance. The price wanted to settle around 50% 1161. The price broke the support of second down leg swing low, it would retest the resistance which stopped the bounce from second leg before it broke the support again. That resistance was around 50% fib. These are important price levels to watch.

I felt that I have lots of problems managing winning trades. The losing trade was probably relatively easy since I have stops which would be the worst scenario if I were wrong. For winning trades, where and when to take profit is not easy. Another way to put this question is when to scalp and when to swing (sit tight when right-most difficult for some traders).
 
Quote from ycxc16588:

I felt that I have lots of problems managing winning trades. The losing trade was probably relatively easy since I have stops which would be the worst scenario if I were wrong. For winning trades, where and when to take profit is not easy. Another way to put this question is when to scalp and when to swing (sit tight when right-most difficult for some traders).
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I think you've pinpointed the problem. You aren't sure what you want to do, scalp or capture larger moves.

I had a a terrible time letting ES winners run and went back to trading stocks in my live account, and trading ES and CL (oil) in my sim account.

My ability to patiently capture larger moves in ES is improving immensely and I may start trading it live again (I think I PM'd you my secret recipe last month). CL really caters to my need to get in and out of profitable trades quickly. I'm pretty good at picking entries but haven't gone live yet because...I have trouble letting my winners run :eek:
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I think you've pinpointed the problem. You aren't sure what you want to do, scalp or capture larger moves.

I had a a terrible time letting ES winners run and went back to trading stocks in my live account, and trading ES and CL (oil) in my sim account.

My ability to patiently capture larger moves in ES is improving immensely and I may start trading it live again (I think I PM'd you my secret recipe last month). CL really caters to my need to get in and out of profitable trades quickly. I'm pretty good at picking entries but haven't gone live yet because...I have trouble letting my winners run :eek:
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I've been watching tapes and charts for some months whenever I have the chance. I feel that I have improved my tape reading as well as chart pattern reading. When I put on a trade, I could tell with my intuition after a few minutes whether it is going to be a winner or loser. However, I could probably do better to cut loss smaller before it touches my stop for more than half of my losing trades. This includes some of the trades shown marginal profit but started to turn into loser. The biggest problem is the real winner, I most often exit prematurely at 1/3 or 1/2 of the entire move. The best trades for me are those you get on decisively at the "riskest" moment and the price would never look back. I believe the better the trader is, the earlier he is able to spot the real winner.

I don't know if scaling out with multiple contracts will help me though many day trades do so. Ideally, you want to have biggest position whem you have a real winner. That is probably the much different level than what I am currently at.
Tank you for sharing with your experience.
 
3-18-2010
Total trades: 1 RT
winner: 1
net p/l: 1.75 pts

I had several meetings this morning until 12:30pm pacific time. I had a 15 minutes before 1pm EST. I saw a double bottom setup with stop run exhaused selling and retest intraday low with dimished vol at 12:40pm. 1055 was an important level I am watching. If selling could not break 1055, I am still bullish biased for very short time frames. I was expecting that 1056.5 was probably the low of the day. Went long at 1057.25 (stop 1056.5, target 1059) at 12:51pm EST. 1059 was 38% retrace with some reistance there. I had to run into a meeting at 1pm EST so I could not watch my trade all the time. I had to set up my profit target a little conservative. Later on, it turns out 1159 became strong support. DOW showed more strength than SPX today.
 
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